小鹏汽车Q1：业绩稳健且亏损收窄，产品周期势头强劲；目标价上调至19.00美元，表现与市场一致

F25E(74.7)(395.3)2.013.2(74.7)(395.3)2.0(404.5)(430.6)20 May 202527.16/6.606M79.00.478.705/255000550060006500 RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetXPEV9868.HKReported EPSF24AXPEV (CNY)(3.06)OLD--9868.HK (CNY)(3.06)OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Q1 good print.XPeng reported Q1 revenue of RMB 15.8bn, +141.5% YoY and -1.8%QoQ. The robust momentum of MONA M03 (starting at RMB 120k) and P7+ (RMB 187k)has bolstered strong volume growth (94k units delivered, +330.8% YoY, +2.7% QoQ) inQ1. ASP continued to decline to RMB 153k (-39.8% YoY, -4.7% QoQ), however, on weakerproduct mix due to M03. Gross margin reached 15.6% (vs. 12.9% in Q1 24 and 14.4% inQ4 24), of which vehicle margin edged up to 10.5% (vs. 5.5% in Q1 24 and 10.0% in Q4 24)on cost reduction initiatives and improved scale. R&D expenses were RMB 2.0bn, or 12.5%of revenue, vs. 20.6% in Q1 24 and 12.5% in Q4 24. SG&A expenses as % of revenue sawmarked improvement to 12.3% of revenue, or 1.9bn, comparing to 21.2% in Q1 24 and14.1% in Q4 24, with store count flat at 690 vs. a quarter ago. Net loss narrowed remarkablywith net margin improved to -4.2% in the quarter vs. -20.9% in Q1 24 and -8.3% in Q4 24.Net loss recorded RMB 664mn, more than halved vs. RMB 1.3bn in Q4 24. The companyalso improved net cash position to RMB 33.3bn, implying positive cash generation of RMB10.8bn, albeit on lengthened AP days (171 days in Q1 25, vs. 133 days in Q4 24).Q2 guidance in line — G6 & G9 facelifts, M03 Max, and G7 to sustain momentum.Thecompany guided to Q2 25 total revenue of RMB 17.5-18.7bn (+116%-131% YoY) andsales volume of 102-108k units (+238%-258% YoY). The guidance implies 34-37k averagemonthly units for May-June, which is largely flat vs. April sales volume of 35k units. May isanticipated to be a transitional month, potentially resulting in lower MoM volumes, but salesmomentum thereafter should be sustained by G6 & G9 facelifts, MONA M03 Max and G7.Investment ImplicationsWe rate XPEVMarket-Performwith price targets forXPEV.US at US$19.00(Old: US$18.00)and for9868.HK at HK$74.00(Old: HK$70.00),on stronger sales volumemomentum and 1-yr forward 1x EV/sales(unchanged).See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 21 May 2025 16:55 UTC Completion Date: 21 May 2025 16:55 UTC 5,940.46136,03708/24 F25EF26E(1.90)(0.36)(2.51)(0.55)(1.90)(0.36)(2.51)(0.55)FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRNet Earnings (M)(5,790)(3,614)(682.80)(65.7)%Operating Earnings (M)(6,658)(4,592)(1,483)(52.8)%Pre-Tax Earnings (M)(5,831)(3,599)(682.80)(65.8)%Revenues (M)40,86674,42099,43756.0%Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$30$25$20$15$1005/24 DETAILSOTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM EARNINGS:Reaffirming confidence in achieving profitabilityin Q4 24:Management has reaffirmed its confidence in achievingprofitability for Q4 24, bolstered by sequential vehicle gross margin expansion expected to reach the high teens % in theupcoming quarters. This positive outlook is primarily driven by the introduction of higher-priced new and facelifted models,such as the new G7 in Q2 to be priced c.RMB 250k, P7 facelift (also codenamed E29 previously) in Q3 to be priced c.RMB300k, and a new EREV in Q4, which are anticipated to significantly enhance ASP throughout 2025. Additionally, the companyexpects to benefit from scale advantages, particularly with substantial sales volume growth projected for Q4, alongside ongoingsupply chain optimization efforts. The company has also maintained its full-year R&D expenditure guidance at RMB 8.5 billion.Bernstein’s take: We are encouraged by the positive sales momentum the company has demonstrated over recentconsecutive quarters and the upcoming product launches. However, the recent strong momentum has primarily beendriven by competitively priced models such as the MONA M03 and P7+. It remains to be seen whether XPeng cansuccessfully penetrate the higher-priced segments and achieve higher vehicle gross margins, which will be crucial forreaching profit breakeven.Strong Q1 performance underpinned by MONA 03 and P7+, Q2 momentum may vary:XPeng delivered an exceptionallystrong performance in Q1 2025, primarily driven by the outstanding results of the MONA M03 and P7+. Total deliveries camein at 94.0k units in the quarter, surging +330.8% YoY and +2.7% QoQ, despite typical seasonal fluctuations. The robust growthhas elevated XPeng’s market share in China EV market to 3.8%, up remarkably from 1.3% in Q1 24 and 2.2% in Q4 24. Notably,MONA M03 and P7+ (launched in August and November 2024, respectively) still saw 16k/8k average monthly deliveries in thequarter, figures comparable to peak season performance at the end of 2024. This highlights their stronger life cycles, markinga notable improvement from XPeng’s previous models. However, in April, both the MONA M03 and P7+ experienced