高盛TMT20260722

strengthisexpectedalongsideatweakhigherinCapExstrengthisexpectedalongsideatweakhigherinCapExstrengthisexpectedalongsideatweakhigherinCapExstrengthisexpectedalongsideatweakhigherinCapExguidance),aswellasearningsfromguidance),aswellasearningsfromguidance),aswellasearningsfromguidance),aswellasearningsfromTXN,TXN,TXN,TXN,IBM,IBM,IBM,IBM,NOW,NOW,NOW,NOW,andandandandTSLA.TSLA.TSLA.TSLA.在TMTTMTTMTTMT领域，市场持续关注动量因素（昨⽇TMTTMTTMTTMT动量对上涨4%4%4%4%的反弹能否持续////是否意味着更⼤⾏情的开始？），同时越来越关注微观数据点。隔夜，SMCISMCISMCISMCI发布业务更新，指引创纪录的积压订单和显著改善的⽑利率（SMCISMCISMCISMCI盘前上涨16%16%16%16%，戴尔和慧与跟涨4%4%4%4%）。此外，T-MobileT-MobileT-MobileT-Mobile因⽤户数和每股收益超预期上涨3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%。今⽇收盘后，市场将聚焦⾕歌财报（预计业绩强劲，同时资本⽀出指引可能⼩幅上调），以及德州仪器、IBMIBMIBMIBM、ServiceNowServiceNowServiceNowServiceNow和特斯拉的业绩。Fromatradingperspective,factorvolatilitycontinuestobeaFromatradingperspective,factorvolatilitycontinuestobeaFromatradingperspective,factorvolatilitycontinuestobeaFromatradingperspective,factorvolatilitycontinuestobeadePningfeatureofmarkets.TonyPoutwithagreatnotethisdePningfeatureofmarkets.TonyPoutwithagreatnotethisdePningfeatureofmarkets.TonyPoutwithagreatnotethisdePningfeatureofmarkets.TonyPoutwithagreatnotethismorningarticulatingthebackdrop(andhighlightsthatmorningarticulatingthebackdrop(andhighlightsthatmorningarticulatingthebackdrop(andhighlightsthatmorningarticulatingthebackdrop(andhighlightsthatMomentumfactorisrealizingitshighestvolatilityinthelastMomentumfactorisrealizingitshighestvolatilityinthelastMomentumfactorisrealizingitshighestvolatilityinthelastMomentumfactorisrealizingitshighestvolatilityinthelast45years,outsideofrecessions).Fullnoteishere:45years,outsideofrecessions).Fullnoteishere:45years,outsideofrecessions).Fullnoteishere:45years,outsideofrecessions).Fullnoteishere:Link从交易⻆度来看，因⼦波动性仍是市场的显著特征。托尼·P·P·P·P SMCI:SMCI:SMCI:SMCI:SuperMicroSuperMicroSuperMicroSuperMicrogavepreliminaryFQ4results,RevsgavepreliminaryFQ4results,RevsgavepreliminaryFQ4results,RevsgavepreliminaryFQ4results,Revstowardslowendofguidance,howeverbigNewOrdertowardslowendofguidance,howeverbigNewOrdertowardslowendofguidance,howeverbigNewOrdertowardslowendofguidance,howeverbigNewOrdernumberandbetterGrossMargins.Stock+16%inpre.numberandbetterGrossMargins.Stock+16%inpre.numberandbetterGrossMargins.Stock+16%inpre.numberandbetterGrossMargins.Stock+16%inpre.SMCISMCISMCISMCI：超微电脑公布初步第四财季业绩，营收接近指引下限，但新订单数额庞⼤且⽑利率改善。盘前股价上涨16%16%16%16%。InQ4businessupdate,SuperMicrosaidtheyseeQ4Revesnearlowendofguidancerange$11-12.5bn,howeverthecompanyhitanewbacklogrecord,withneworderstopping$60bn.Marginsforthequarterarealsoestimatedtobemuchbetterthanexpected,withthecompanynowguidingto15-17%vs.prev8.2-8.4%.DELLandHPEaretradinghigherinpremarketinsympathy.在第四季度业务更新中，超微电脑表示其第四季度营收接近11-12.511-12.511-12.511-12.5亿美元指引区间的下限，但公司创下新订单积压纪录，新订单总额超过600600600600亿美元。该季度利润率也远好于预期，公司⽬前预计⽑利率为15-17%15-17%15-17%15-17%，⽽此前预期为8.2-8.4%8.2-8.4%8.2-8.4%8.2-8.4%。受此影响，戴尔和慧与盘前股价同步上涨。T:T:T:T:AT&Treportedsolidbeatacrossallkeymetrics.PostpaidAT&Treportedsolidbeatacrossallkeymetrics.PostpaidAT&Treportedsolidbeatacrossallkeymetrics.PostpaidAT&Treportedsolidbeatacrossallkeymetrics.PostpaidphonenetaddsandEPSbothbetter.Stock+3.5%inpre.phonenetaddsandEPSbothbetter.Stock+3.5%inpre.phonenetaddsandEPSbothbetter.Stock+3.5%inpre.phonenetaddsandEPSbothbetter.Stock+3.5%inpre.TTTT：AT&TAT&TAT&TAT&T各项关键指标均实现稳健超预期。后付费⼿机净增⽤户数与每股收益均优于预期。盘前股价上涨3.5%3.5%3.5%3.5%。AT&TreportedQ2wirelesspostpaidnetaddsof+432kvs.cons+325k,reportedEPSof65cvs.cons59c,andsaidplansto MACRO:MACRO:MACRO:MACRO:宏观动态：E-minis-25bps/Nasdaqfutures-60bps/US10yearyearE-minis-25bps/Nasdaqfutures-60bps/US10yearyearE-minis-25bps/Nasdaqfutures-60bps/US10yearyearE-minis-25bps/Nasdaqfutures-60bps/US10yearyearyieldunchangedat4.62%/Crude+3%w/overnightfocusonyieldunchangedat4.62%/Crude+3%w/overnightfocusonyieldunchangedat4.62%/Crude+3%w/overnightfocusonyieldunchangedat4.62%/Crude+3%w/overnightfocusontheescalatingUS-Irancon\icttheescalatingUS-Irancon\icttheescalatingUS-Irancon\icttheescalatingUS-Irancon\ictw/brentbreakingthru$95forthe`rsttimeinsixweeksasHouthitankerthreatsandwidenedUS 伊朗则表示仅可能进⾏信息传递……………………市场⽬光转向收盘后Mag7Mag7Mag7Mag7财报季开启（⾕歌////字⺟表++++特斯拉），以及昨⽇动量反弹能否延续（盘前观察SOXXSOXXSOXXSOXX下跌190190190190个基点），⽽超微电脑因⽑利率近乎翻倍上涨16%16%16%16%。Overnight,Asiawasbroadlymixedastech-heavyindicestrimmedearlygainsasoilsurgeandchipweaknessweighed.USDJPYbriejytouched163.24—itsweakestsince1986—beforereboundingto~162.70afterBloombergreportedthatBOJomcialsarereportedlyopentohikingratesatafasterpacethanconsensus.Moneymarketsnowpricean82%probabilityofaBOJhikeinOctober,upfrom72%aheadofthereport......Europetradeshigher,ledbyenergyandindustrials,withtechasthekeylaggard.隔夜亚洲市场涨跌互现，科技股为主的指数回吐早盘涨幅，因油价飙升和芯⽚板块疲软带来压⼒。美元兑⽇元⼀度触及163.24——163.24——163.24——163.24——⾃1986198619861986年以来最弱⽔平————————随后在彭博报道称⽇本央⾏官员据称愿意以快于市场预期的速度加息后，反弹⾄~162.70~162.70~162.70~162.70。货币市场⽬前定价⽇本央⾏10101010⽉加息概率为82%82%82%82%，⾼于该报道发布前的72%……72%……72%……72%……欧洲市场⾛⾼，能源和⼯业板块领涨，科技板块表现落后。ThereisnomajordataintheUStoday...pre-openepsincludeCME,GEV,MCO,NTRS,OTIS,PHM,PMandT...post-closeepsinclude