瑞士钟表出口在 2026 年 6 月增长了 11.2%，经调整后（考虑了 2026 年 6 月比 2025 年 6 月多出的两个工作日）增长率为 1.1%。增长仍然脆弱，本月数据似乎因对法国出口同比增长 103.5% 而被向上扭曲。FHS 之前曾指出，自 2025 年 12 月以来，法国出口显著增加，这得益于其作为物流枢纽的作用。因此，部分报告出口可能只是转口贸易，并不能完全代表法国国内需求。排除法国后，出口增长率为 5.6%（按日历调整后为 -4%）。
所有地区在 2026 年 6 月都报告了正增长，即使排除了法国。截至本年度，同比增长率为 -0.6%，而上月为 -2.9%。作为全球最大市场的美国仍然是这一复苏的关键驱动力，6 月份增长了 12.7%。同样，英国本月的增长率为 12.2%。英美对瑞士钟表的需求仍然强劲。
值得注意的是，中东地区的出口也在 2026 年 6 月增长了 23.8%。这似乎反映了对该地区战争导致 3 月和 4 月损失的出口的追赶。中东地区在 2026 年第二季度整体增长率为 1.4%，但这也标志着从 2026 年第一季度趋势的加速。目前尚不清楚这种增长是由批发买家对旅游业回归的暂时乐观情绪推动的，还是反映了当地需求更可持续的改善。
大中华区的出口仍然疲软。中国大陆的出口下降了 16.5%，而香港的出口增长了 6.9%，使大中华区的总增长率为约 -5.7%（与上月的 -9.4% 相比）。我们认为，中国大陆消费者继续表现出相对较高的价格弹性——涌向香港、日本或韩国以利用汇率驱动的价格差距，这主要是以中国大陆需求为代价。对日本的出口增长了 8.8%。
按价格点划分的表现仍然被波动性的比较基础所掩盖。200-500 瑞士法郎价格段的表在数量和价值方面分别增长了 51.3% 和 54.1%。价格低于 200 瑞士法郎的表增长了 6.8% 和 9.9%，价格高于 3000 瑞士法郎的表增长了 12% 和 14.2%，而 500-3000 瑞士法郎价格段的表则下降了 1.3% 和 4.7%。按滚动 12 个月计算，出口量同比增长了 2.9%（5 月为 1.2%），其中 200-500 瑞士法郎价格段的表以 12 个月移动平均 +6% 的增长率领先。Swatch x AP ‘Royal Pop’ 于 2026 年 5 月推出，可能定价在 200-500 瑞士法郎之间。
按材质划分的表现也主要反映了 2025 年关税引起的波动性。双金属表的价值同比增长了 42.1%，其他金属增长了 22.9%，其他材料增长了 22.6%。贵金属和钢表分别增长了 2.9% 和 5%。
瑞士钟表需求目前正按渐进式复苏的轨迹发展。美国增长强劲，而东亚的复苏虽然零散，但仍在正确的轨道上。然而，全球经济不确定性仍然是一个风险：油价上涨、通货膨胀以及关税风险的突然重现都可能威胁到该行业漫长复苏的进程。
投资启示：
全球奢侈品需求的复苏轨迹仍然不确定。我们发现两种波动来源在起作用：a) 消费者在脆弱的宏观经济环境和紧张的地缘政治环境中进行导航时，潜在需求的波动；以及 b) 短期投资者进行多空操作，放大波动幅度超出自然新闻流量。
在这种情况下，我们将采取更防御性的立场，核心投资组合专注于“公允价值”的高质量名称：
1）我们更喜欢 Richemont，由于其强劲的珠宝势头和领导地位，Brunello Cucinelli 也因其品质和潜在均值回归而受到青睐。
2）以及具有更有希望的轨迹的自助故事。LVMH 介于高质量和自助之间。W&S 转型的持续担忧和 Arnault 家族“达尔文式”的继任过程相互抵消，Dior 的复苏、成本效益和 Louis Vuitton 的强劲势头；Burberry 的转型进展顺利。Burberry Forward 战略的一周年纪念日已经取得了成效，表现为品牌势头改善和全价销售率增强。随着坚实的基础已经建立，下一阶段的转型可能会将重点转移到通过利用核心外套和围巾类别的延长期势来提高门店生产力上。Ferragamo 处于早期阶段，交易价格处于交易区间较低端。与管理层的最近谈话表明，一支“老手”团队正在解决关于该品牌、产品组合和零售门店网络的关键问题，可能正在酝酿转型。
Global Luxury Goods: June Swiss watch exports - Global demandremains on track for a fragile recovery
Swiss watch exports grew by +11.2% in June 2026.Adjusted for the two additionalworking days in Jun’26 vs. Jun’25 would see exports growing +1.1%. Growth remainsfragile; the month’s data seems to be skewed upwards by a +103.5% YoY growth in exportsto France. FHS had previously flagged that exports to France have experienced a significantincrease since Dec’25, driven by its role as a logistics hub. A portion of reported exportsare therefore likely only in-transit and not fully representative of domestic French demand.Excluding France would see exports growing +5.6% (-4% on a calendar adj. basis).
Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com
Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com
Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com
Swiss watch exports continue to enjoy broadly positive momentum.All regionsreported positive growth in Jun’26, even after excluding France. YTD YoY growth nowstands at -0.6% vs -2.9% last month. The USA, as the world’s largest market, remains thekey driver in this recovery, with +12.7% growth in Jun’26. Likewise, the UK saw +12.2%growth this month. Anglo-American demand for Swiss watches remains strong.
Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com
Notably, exports to the Middle East also saw strong growth at +23.8% in Jun’26.
Specialist Sales
Part of this seems to reflect a catch-up in exports lost in March and April due to the war inthe region. The Middle East ends 2Q26 with an overall growth rate of +1.4% for the quarter.However, it also marks an acceleration from 1Q26’s trend of -5%. It remains too early to tellwhether this growth is driven by momentary optimism from wholesale buyers about a returnof tourists or reflects a more sustainable improvement in local demand.
Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com
Exports to Greater China remain tough.Exports to Mainland China shrank by -16.5%this month, while exports to Hong Kong grew +6.9%, bringing total growth in GreaterChina to approximately -5.7% (vs. -9.4% the month before). We believe Mainland Chineseconsumers continue to exhibit relatively high price elasticity - flocking to Hong Kong, Japan,or South Korea to capture FX-driven price gaps, largely at the expense of Mainland demand.Exports to Japan grew +8.8% in Jun’26.
Performance by price point continues to be obscured by a volatile comparison base.Watches priced at CHF 200-500 grew at +51.3% and +54.1% in volume and value terms.Watches priced CHF 3,000 +12% and+14.2%, while those priced between CHF 500-3,000 shrank by -1.3% and -4.7%. On arolling 12M basis, export volumes have increased by +2.9% YoY (vs. +1.2% in May’26), withwatches priced between CHF 200-500 leading the charge with +6% growth on a 12m MA.The Swatch x AP ‘Royal Pop’, launched in May’26, is likely priced between CHF 200-500.
Performance by material also largely reflects 2025’s tariff-induced volatility.Exportsby value for bimetallic watches increased +42.1% YoY, followed by other metals at +22.9%and other materials at +22.6% Precious metal and steel watches grew by +2.9% and +5%.
Swiss watch demand remains on track for a gradual recovery, for now.Growth in theUS remains strong while the recovery in East Asia - though patchy - remains on the righttrack. However, global economic uncertainty remains a risk: higher oil prices, inflation, and asudden reappearance of tariff risks could still threaten the industry’s drawn-out recovery.
INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS
The trajectory of a recovery in global luxury demand remains uncertain. We find two sources of volatility at play: a) underlyingdemand gyrations, as consumers navigate a fragile macro-economic environment and a tenser and tenser geopoliticalenvironment; and b) short-term investors playing the sector long and short, amplifying upswings and downswings beyondnatural news flow.
In this context of heightened uncertainty, we would take a more defensive posture with a core exposure to plain
1) We would prefer high-quality names “at fair value”...Richemontis our top preference due to strong jewelry momentum andleadership, withBrunello Cucinellialso favored for their quality and potential mean reversion.
2) ...as well as the self-help stories with more promising trajectories.LVMHsits between high quality and self-help. Lingeringconcerns around the W&S turnaround and the Arnault family’s ‘Darwinian’ succession process are counter-balanced by Dior’srevival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton’s strength; Turnaround atBurberryis well on track. One-year anniversary of theBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in the form of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With asolid foundation in place, the next leg of turnaround will likely see focus shifting to driving store productivity, by capitalizing onthe extended momentum in other cate