瑞士手表出口：基数效应驱动反弹， underlying复苏仍缓慢脆弱

drive rebound; underlying recovery remains gradual and fragile calendar effects, however, total exports increased by +10.4%, reflecting two fewer workingdays in May'26 vs. May'25. The sharp rebound from the -16.6% YoY decline in the priormonth was once again driven by the US; excluding the US, total exports declined-1.2%YoY, compared to +3.5% YoY in April 2026, primarily due to a higher comparable base inMainland China.Fluctuations in the US compbase continuedtodrive overall export growthvolatility. luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita maria.meita@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA Exports tothe US grew+12.3%YoY in May,asthe comp base normalizedto-25%,vs.+149% in Apr'25.On a LTM basis,exports to the US declined-19%YoY,a modestimprovement from-21% in April 2026.Comparable bases for the US are expected toremain supportive for the remainder of the year, with double-digit negative comparisonsexceptfor July, when prior-year pull-forward shipments resulted in a +45% base. +85221232628eric.chenbernsteinsg.com +442076766822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com YoY) and Mainland China (-21.4% YoY)moderated sequentially, largely due to tougherbases.On a LTM basis,exports to Greater Chinadeclined-O.9% YoY, continuingthe gradualimprovementfrom-1.4%inthepriormonth.Elsewhere,favorablebaseeffects supportedby its role as a logistics hub since Dec'25. In contrast, the Middle East remained weak, withexports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia declining-13.5% and-5.9% YoY,respectively. Alix Turner +44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Variations in segmentperformancewerelargelydriven bydifferences in YoYvolume growth,again reflecting base distortions. Watches priced at CHF 200-500 and above CHF3,000 recorded export value andvolume growth of+23.6% and+22.2%,and+3.7% anddeclined -4.5% and -1.4%, and -17.2% and -17.4%, respectively.On a rolling 12-monthbasis, overall export volumes increased by +1.2% YoY (vs. 0% in April 2026 and +0.4% in1Q26), with broadly consistent improvement across all price segments. Bymaterial,compbases eased across categories, with bimetallic watches showingthe strongest growth.Export value for bimetallic watches increased+34% YoY,followedby other metals at +14.7%.In contrast, precious metals,steel, and other materials declined-7.2%, -5.4%, and -16.0% YoY,respectively. Swisswatchdemand remains ontrack foragradual recovery,for now.Global exporttrends continued torecover, with slow and steady improvement in China andresilience inthe US,as company commentary suggests thatUS consumers have taken tariff-relatedprice increases in their stead. The other key risk to watch out for is the development in theMiddle East, which was a rare spot of growth in 2025 for the sector. While the short termdirect consequencesmaybe limited ifthe conflict can be quickly resolved, indirect impactsdrawn-out conflict could threaten early signs of recovery. natural newsflow. vanilla: leadership,with Brunello Cucinelli alsofavored fortheirqualityand potential mean reversion. revival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton's strength; Turnaround at Burberry is well on track. One-year anniversary of theBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in the form of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With athe extended momentum in other categories from the core outerwear &scarf; Ferragamo is at the earlier stage of and tradingat the lower end of thetrading range.Recent conversation with management suggests a possible turnaround in the making,as ateam of "old hands”are tackling key issues around the brand, assortment and retail store network. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe"Firm”inthese disclosuresrelateto thefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServices LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2o24onwards)，SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited，SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一下·C·八一个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Please visit:https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or,youcan also writeto the Director of Compliance,Bernstein Institutional Services LLC,245 Park Avenue, New York,NY10167. RISKS Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or,you can also writeto the Director ofCompliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC,245Park Avenue,New York, NY10167. RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based onforecasts of relative performancefor the next 12 months versus the S&P500 forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchang