全球奢侈品：5月瑞士手表出口——基础效应推动反弹，潜在复苏仍渐进且脆弱

Global Luxury Goods: May Swiss watch exports - Base effectsdrive rebound; underlying recovery remains gradual and fragile Swiss watch exports grew marginally by +0.4% YoY in May 2026.Adjusted forcalendar effects, however, total exports increased by +10.4%, reflecting two fewer workingdays in May’26 vs. May’25. The sharp rebound from the -16.6% YoY decline in the priormonth was once again driven by the US; excluding the US, total exports declined -1.2% Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Fluctuations in the US comp base continued to drive overall export growth volatility.Exports to the US grew +12.3% YoY in May, as the comp base normalized to -25%, Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com vs. +149% in Apr’25. On a LTM basis, exports to the US declined -19% YoY, a modestimprovement from -21% in April 2026. Comparable bases for the US are expected to Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Underlying trends in Greater China remained broadly stable.Exports to HK (+3.4%YoY) and Mainland China (-21.4% YoY) moderated sequentially, largely due to tougherbases. On a LTM basis, exports to Greater China declined -0.9% YoY, continuing the gradualimprovement from -1.4% in the prior month. Elsewhere, favorable base effects supportedgrowth in the UK (+24.9% YoY), while exports to France rose sharply (+57% YoY), drivenby its role as a logistics hub since Dec’25. In contrast, the Middle East remained weak, with Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Comparable base effects also dominated performance across price segments.Variations in segment performance were largely driven by differences in YoY volume growth, again reflecting base distortions. Watches priced at CHF 200-500 and above CHF3,000 recorded export value and volume growth of +23.6% and +22.2%, and +3.7% and+3.0%, respectively. In contrast, segments below CHF 200 and between CHF 500-3,000declined -4.5% and -1.4%, and -17.2% and -17.4%, respectively. On a rolling 12-month By material, comp bases eased across categories, with bimetallic watches showingthe strongest growth.Export value for bimetallic watches increased +34% YoY, followedby other metals at +14.7%. In contrast, precious metals, steel, and other materials declined Swiss watch demand remains on track for a gradual recovery, for now.Global exporttrends continued to recover, with slow and steady improvement in China and resilience inthe US, as company commentary suggests that US consumers have taken tariff-relatedprice increases in their stead. The other key risk to watch out for is the development in theMiddle East, which was a rare spot of growth in 2025 for the sector. While the short term INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The trajectory of a recovery in global luxury demand remains uncertain. We find two sources of volatility at play: a) underlyingdemand gyrations, as consumers navigate a fragile macro-economic environment and a tenser and tenser geopolitical In this context of heightened uncertainty, we would take a more defensive posture with a core exposure to plainvanilla: 1) We would prefer high-quality names “at fair value”...Richemontis our top preference due to strong jewelry momentum andleadership, withBrunello Cucinellialso favored for their quality and potential mean reversion. 2) ...as well as the self-help stories with more promising trajectories.LVMHsits between high quality and self-help. Lingeringconcerns around the W&S turnaround and the Arnault family’s ‘Darwinian’ succession process are counter-balanced by Dior’srevival, cost efficiencies, and Louis Vuitton’s strength; Turnaround atBurberryis well on track. One-year anniversary of theBurberry Forward strategy has paid off, in the form of improved brand momentum and stronger full-price sell-through. With asolid foundation in place, the next leg of turnaround will likely see focus shifting to driving store productivity, by capitalizing on DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and A