全球奢侈品：4月瑞士手表出口——关税扭曲导致同比趋势波动，因基数效应显现

Global Luxury Goods: April Swiss watch exports - Tariffdistortions keep YoY trends choppy as comps catch up Swiss watch exports declined by -16.6% YoY in Apr’26. with the number of workingdays unchanged compared to Apr’25.This represents an acceleration from thecalendar-adjusted decline in Mar’26 (-6%), which had followed a +9.2% YoY increase inFeb’26. The deterioration was likely driven by a higher comparable base, as exports had Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Ongoing tariffs volatility in the US continued to drive fluctuations through baseeffects.The steep decline in exports to the US (-56.4% YoY) was the primary contributor tothe overall contraction, as the comp base now incorporates the pull-forward shipments inApr’25 in response to tariff. This volatility is likely to persist in YoY comparisons, particularlyaround July and August. Vs. 2024, exports to the US in Apr’26 remained resilient, growing Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales Underlying trends for Greater China remained broadly stable.Exports to HK (+13.5%)and Mainland China (+17.1%) both recorded double-digit growth in April. However, thiswas largely supported by a favorable comp base, as shipments in Apr’25 were likelyredirected toward the US. Relative to 2024 levels, Apr’26 remained approximately -15%lower, broadly in line with the trend observed in 1Q26 (vs.1Q24). Exports to France grewstrongly at +46.3% YoY. This trend started in Dec’25, and likely reflects re-exports to other Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Across price segments, performance was primarily driven by comp effect.CHF200-500 was the only category to record export value growth (+7.7%), supported bya relatively easier comp base. In contrast, >CHF 3,000 faced the most challengingcomparison (+19.8% in Apr’25) and consequently declined the most (-19.0%).