人工智能与绿色科技推动出口：4月出口远超市场预期，全球制造业复苏背景下

Exports powered by Al and greentech against the backdrop of a global manufacturing upturn.Strong momentum was led by Al-related and green-techproducts, reinforcing exports as the main growth engine amidweak domestic demand. Rising commodity prices liftedimports value. +85229032653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongYing Zhang +85229032652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong KongJian Chang +852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong imports China's export growth returned to double-digit growth, rising to 14.1% y/y in April, far exceedingexpectations (Bloomberg 8.4%, Barclays:6.5%).Such strong exports came against the backdropof 1) robust uptick in global manufacturing (versus slowing services sector), with globalstrong exports across major manufacturing economies, ranging from low-to-mid productexports from Vietnam (April: 21% y/y), to high-end oriented product exports from Korea (April:48%), to the full-supply-chain exports from China (April: 14%). The export momentum is underpinned by high-tech products, particularly Al-related and green-tech goods. The strong global Al capex cycle underpins demand for China's Al-relatedexports,given the country is akey supplierof Almanufacturedcomponents.The breakdowndata show that exports of semiconductors (~8% of China's total exports YTD) rose 100% y/y,while exports of automatic data processing equipment and related parts (~6%of China'stotalexports YTD) increased 47% y/y.We estimate thatthese two categories togethercontributed~8pptoheadline exports growth,explaining~60%of exportsgrowth.Forcontext,Chinaaccounts for over30% ofglobal export value in critical Al-related products, well above Korea(~6%),-includingelectronicchips,computers,semiconductor components,electrical boardsand chip-making equipment. demand for its renewable energy-tech exports. YTD exports data showed strong, double-digitgrowth in these segments, including EVs (+68% y/y), lithium batteries (+55% y/y), wind turbines(+55% y/y) and solar cells (+34%).We think a prolonged period of geopolitical tensions couldaccelerate the global green transition, which would ultimately benefit China as the world'sleadinggreen-technologypowerhousegiven the low costs andhigh qualitygreen productsandtechnologies. Indeed,following the Middle East conflict, we see a surge in export orders for solar underscoring how an energy shock can reinforce the shift toward renewables'. May.We expectnet exportsto continue to contribute about 30%of GDP growththisyear (202532%), adding 1.4pp to our full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast of 4.6%. By contrast,thecontribution from consumption is likely tofallbelow50% amid adeterioratinglabourmarketand reduced pro-consumption subsidies.The high-frequency consumption indicators (eg,autosales, May holiday trip data) weakened visibly in the past month, suggesting consumption willremain a drag on growth in Q2. Overall, we expect the two-speed economy -strong exportsversus weak domestic demand-to persist this year. .By destination: Export growth improved broadly across major markets in April. Shipments to the US rebounded by 11.3% y/y, partly reflecting a low base a year earlier following theLiberation Daytariffs.On a m/mbasis, exports to the US surged 24.8%, well above the 2022-24 average of 3.2% (excluding the tariff-affected year of 2025). Export growth to the EU (April:13.4%, March:8.6%) and the UK (9.6%,3.4%) also strengthened.Regional exports to ASEAN(15.2%, 6.9%) and to Japan,Korea and Taiwan (16.8%, 16.0%) posted double-digit gainsMeanwhile,shipments to Africa and LatAm acceleratedmeaningfully,contributing 2.1pp toheadline export growth in April, compared with a drag of o.1pp in March. almost doubled froma year earlier,following an already strong 85% increase in thepreviousmonth. Auto exports remained resilient, rising 44% y/y, broadly in line with March. Exports ofmechanical and electrical products grew 20% y/y, up from 11% in March, while homeappliance exports returned to positive growth.In contrast, exports of furniture, generalequipmentandmachinery continuedto contract,albeit ata slowerpace. Imports have continued to exceed expectations this year. Against the backdrop of surging energy prices, and semiconductor related prices, China's import value growth posted a solidgrowth of 25.3% y/y in April, following a 27.8% increase in March, supported by robust imports20%, March: 13.6%),and commodities (April:13%,March:2%). In contrast, auto importsremained weak,falling 34% y/y after a 40% decline in March. On a volume basis, imports of energy-related products weakened notably.Crude oil imports fell20% y/y, widening sharply from a 2.8% decline in March. Natural gas imports dropped 13%(March: -11%), while coal imports fell 12.5%. Imports of industrial materials also stayed soft:iron ore import growth slowed to 0.7% from 11.5% in March, and steel imports declined 11%y/y,reversinga 2% increasepreviously. By contrast, soybean imports reached 8.48 mil