欧洲宏观展望2026：韧性vs.刚性

EuropeMacro Outlook2026Resilience vs. rigidity MarkWallIManagingDirectorChief EuropeanEconomist July2026 DBForecasts:EuroAreaMacroViews WorldOutlook2026:Anythingbutdull 2026 promised to be anything but dull. It is living up to expectations: the extraction of President Maduro from Venezuela, theAl/Tech sector correction, threats to Greenland, private credit tensions, overturning of the IEEPA tariffs, and war in Iran with a newenergy shock. Even if geopolitics quietens, Al is likely to come back and dominate market sentiment and drive boom-and-bustnarratives. Europe's""two-economyproblem":Resiliencevs.Rigidity external headwinds, thanks to a robust labour market, effective monetary transmission, etc. Germany's expansionary fiscal policywas expected to add resilience in 2026. The more downbeat perspective emphasizes Europe's 'rigidity' We are in a rapidlychanging world marked by geostrategic economic competition. Europe should be innovating, investing, reforming - and is findingthis difficult. EuroAreaMacroForecasts:lnflationup,growthdown conflict) and 1.1% in 2027 (1.3% pre-conflict). We forecast HICP inflation at 3.1% in 2026 (1.8% pre-conflict) and 2.5% in 2027 (1.9%pre-conflict). Our forecasts were based on an assumption of a US-lran peace deal by end-June followed by a gradual moderation ofenergy prices (oil to avg USD80/bbl in 2027). Oil prices have fallen more rapidly than we were expecting - which means downsiderisk for inflation and upside risk for growth IranShock:EnergypricesvsECBbaselineandalternativescenarios The global economy, and Europe, is in a highly contingent situation. The path of economies and policy will be a function of energyprices. The ECB has developed a baseline scenario and 3 alternative scenarios: mild, adverse and severe. Gas prices are very closeto the ECB's baseline scenario. Since the US-lran peace deal was announced, oil prices have fallen below the ECB baseline, but arestill above the mild scenario. Energyshockisunwinding-slowlyMiddleEastcrisislowered2026GDPgrowthto0.5%(from1.1%)-post-MOUoutlookstartingtoimprove...slowly Primary transmission channels for energy shock: real income shock, uncertainty shock, global growth shockReal income shock reversing: cumulative 2026-2027 inflation shock was c.2pp, now c.1.2pp - adds a few tenths to '26 GDPGlobal growth resilient but uncertainty not falling yet, business and household confidence only tentatively recovering Shock amplifiers are fading Europe was able to secure more supply of jet fuel - some concern that EU gas storage could be low going into winterLabour market sentiment had weakened more sharply than in 2022 - actual activity still holding upBank credit shows a gap between expected conditions (tight BLS) and actual conditions (easy credit impulse) Tailwinds and headwinds Two-sidedrisks Tailwinds: Al spending/global manufacturing cycle; German fiscal spending & reforms; Ukraine peaceHeadwinds: Competitiveness and China Shock 2.O; Trump/NATO/Greenland/digital tariffs; elections (including France) EuroAreaInflation:Allabouttheriskofpost-energyshockpersistence Pricing Power Indirecteffects:Surveyshaveindicatedpass-through,butthecostimpulseisstartingtofade-cappingupsiderisk PMl data showed an especially strong pass-through from input costs into output prices in AprilRate of pass-through eased in May and costs pressures started to reverse in June - lower oil implies bigger cost drop in JulyDelivery times tightened through the Middle East crisis - can be an inflation shock amplifier - needs monitoring Bargaining Power Labour market not has tight as 2022, but not normal either - e.g., vacancies/unemployment ratio, labour shortagesWage growth still expected to normalise - positive real wage growth might mean less pressure for real wage catch-upUpside risks to monitor: wage drift, Indeed.com marginal cost of employment, dbDlG intention to ask for pay rise Purchasing power Resilientdemandcouldsupportinflationpersistence Fiscal policy: Response to 2026 energy shock was a fraction of 2022 - and easing was targeted and temporaryFinancial conditions: BLS expectations tightened in Q2 - actual conditions remain easy according to Credit ImpulseGrowth resilience: 'Look through' strategy works if weak growth helps inflation correct downwards - not necessarily in 2o26 MarchECBWatchersspeechpresentedatransparentreactionfunctionfortheenergyshockPresidentLagardesaysthe ECBisinthe'measured'tightening scenario Option 1: 'Look through' if inflation shock is small and temporary - this was not a robust strategy and ECB hiked in JuneOption 2: 'Measured' tightening if inflation shock large and not too persistent - this is where the ECB says it is (Sintra) DBviewis policyrates rise to2.50%-a second and final hikeinSeptember Consistentwitha‘measured'tighteningofmonetarypolicy Hiking to 2.50%, the upper end of the range of neutral, is a measured responseIt signals the commitment to medium-term price stability while not overbu