欧洲软件与服务行业展望——2026及未来

EuropeanSoftwareandServicesoutlook-To2026andbeyond We outline in this report our key macro themes and our top picks for the European Software Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyengbernsteinsg.com Macro themes set to be mainly Al related. Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30 IT spending should continue to steadily improve, with software and North Americaleading the way, as shown in recent results and industry surveys. Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506 Al looks set to remain the overarching theme: Recent CIO surveys show that companies plan to increase their investments inGenerative Al/Agentic Al substantially in 2026. Specialist Sales Kiran Shah+44 20 3567 1533kiran.shahgbemsteinsg.com Sovereign Alis becoming a crucial aspect of the new AI Cold War between the US,China and the European Union. Bubble or no bubble? while we understand investors'concerns, we believe that they areoverblown in some respects. We present here our view on various questions frequentlyfielded with investors of late, such as: whether firms could bypass IT companieswith vibe coding, which software segment has the strongest moets, and what thedeflationary pricing effects for services companies could be, etc. Alliances (e-g. circular investments) should enable technology powerhouses to buildup and capture entire walled-off ecosystems to dominate the Al future thanks to a Emergence of a new business model: Services as Software, prompted by Al, eventhough, in our view,this model is likely to take time to become dominant. Top picks: SAP (Outperform, PT 297): we believe that SAP presents one of the best risk/rewardratios in the sector, with an accelerating double-digit revenue growth rate over 2026-27eand rapid margin expansion. Capgemini (Outperform, PT 225): we believe that 2026 willbe a recovery year, with anan average 35% discount on 2026-27e EV/EBIT to global services peers, which we viewas excessive. • Indra (Outperform, PT 657): the group is set to continue to ride the European supercyclein defense, boosted by acquisitions. Indra is to present a new plan to achieve 10bn inrevenues by 2029, ie. one year ahead of its initial objective, at its 2Q26 CMD We provide a one-page summary of our investment case for each of the 17 companies wecover, a comparison with consensus estimates, valuation charts, and a list of recent reports. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE VALUATIONCOMPSTABLE by D. Marcon. Serices: Capgemini and Indra covered by R, Nguyen; Atos, Aten, Reply, Sopra Steris, and Aubay covered by D. MarconSoftware: SAP co-covered by M. Moerdler and R. Nguyer; Sage, Nemetschek and TeamViewer covered by R. Nguyer; Dassault Systtmes and 74software coveredSource: LSEG (data as of 23 November), Bemstein analysis Table Of Contents Investment summary..5What are the key mecro themes for 2026?.9IT spending growth should gradualy improve in 2026..9Generative Al will remain the overarching theme11H-1B visa issues could accelerate the change in business model at services provide.15Sovereign Al, a crucial topic in the coming years..17More alliances to build up walled-off ecosystems to dominate the Al future.19where are valuations currently?22What are our key investment ideas for 2026?..24Top picks among large-cap companies.24Top picks among small/mid-cap compani25Investment case per company (by alphabetical order)..2674software (Outperform, PT 53).26Alten (Outperform, PT 118)..27Arcadis (Outperform, PT 52)28Atos (Underperform, PT 35),.29Aubay (Outperform, PT 60).30Capgemini (Outperform, PT 225).31CGI (Underperform, PT C$142).32Dassault Systemes (Outperform, PT 37),.33Indra (Outperform, PT 57)..34Nemetschek (Market-Perform, PT 132),.35OVHcloud (Outperform, PT 12).36Reply (Market-Perform, PT 133)37Sage (Market-Perform, PT 1,340p)38SAP (Outperform, PT 6297).39Sopra Steria (Outperform, PT 226),40TeamViewer (Market-Perform, PT 11)41Worldline (Market-Perform, PT 2.7)..42 INVESTMENTSUMMARY In this report, we outline our key macro themes for the European software and services sector, as well as our top picks for 2026. What are the key themes? • IT spending should gradually improve in 2026, with software and laaS leading the way. According to market researcher Gartner Group, software spending is set to grow c.14% at constant currencies (cc)vs c.4% cc for services spending. In cloud markets, laaS (Infrastructure as a Service) is poised to grow by c.25% cc,underpinned by the ongoing Al investment wave. PaaS (Platform as a Service) is projected to grow c.22% cc, ahead ofSaaS (Software as a Service) at +c.18% cc. The North American market should leed the recovery ahead of Europe, with the growth gap set to be greater in softwareand cloud than in services, However, Europe should grow faster than North America in laaS next year. Al remains the overarching theme. Recent 2O26 CIO spending surveys show that companies plan to increase their investment in Al/Generative Al (GenAl)/Agentic Al substantially next year. Al-related software spending i