软件及IT服务行业2026年展望：迷雾背后，盈利可期

Software & IT Services 2026Outlook Every Cloud Has an Earnings Lining 2025 was challenging for the Software & IT Services sectors as the AI disruptionnarrative engulfed the group, resulting in the sector underperforming Europeanequities by >20%. In many cases, this has been driven by P/E valuation multiplesde-rating (e.g. SAP ~38x to ~29x, DSY ~24x to ~17x, SGE ~29x to ~21x, AMS~21x to ~18x, NEM ~46x to ~39x & CAP ~13x to ~11x). In order to find absolutedownside to much of our coverage over a ~2 year horizon in light of the earningsgrowth we expect (>10% 2 year EPS CAGR), we would need to assume thatmultiples de-rate an incremental 20%+ from here over the next ~2 years. Ourcurrent forecasts relative to consensus do not support a view that would warrantsuch an incremental de-rating at this point. Hence, whilst sector sentiment likelyremains clouded near-term due to AI, and we are cutting PTs ~5-10% on averagedue to lower target multiples across our core coverage, we do see modest upsideto share prices on a multi-year view as a result of ~2 years worth of compoundedearnings growth. Companies where we have particular bottom-up convictioninclude SAP(OW and place on +ve CW; AFL) and Temenos (OW) in Software andComputacenter (OW) and Softcat (Upgrading to OW) in the Resellers. ExcludingSAP and Temenos, our PTs across our large-cap coverage reflect on average >10%upside over a ~2 year horizon, which reflects a modest level of upside consistentwith our balance of ratings and selective conviction. We remove Sage from ourAFL (though we maintain OW) and reduce our PT by >10% as the AI risk narrativeis more acute in the SMB space, and reinitiate coverage on Capgemini at Neutralgiven an uncertain outlook for the steady-state growth and margin profile due toAI. We place Dassault Systemes (N) on -ve CW into FY25 results as we think themarket may struggle to underwrite much acceleration built into the ‘26 guidance.We remain cautious on Nemetschek (UW) given downside to consensus growth. European Tech Software & ITServices Toby OggAC(44-20) 7742-3278toby.ogg@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc Joseph GeorgeAC(44-20) 3493-6990joe.george@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc Priya R Suneja(91-22) 6157 4721priya.suneja@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan India Private Limited Giulio Gambardella(44-20) 3493-4181giulio.gambardella@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc Equity Derivatives Strategy Esmail Afsah(44-20) 7742-9231esmail.afsah@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc •Software views into 2026 - bottom-up conviction in SAP and Temenos:SAP (OW) -accelerating revenue growth 2026/2027 (CEO also recentlyindicating acceleration beyond 2027), attractive earnings growth (we model~20% EPS CAGR 2026-2028), upside to consensus (JPMe L-MSD% above2026-2028 consensus) and entrenched positioning in the AI cycle; placing on+ve CW into FY25 results on a strong Q4 and robust guide;Temenos (OW)-attractive FCF growth (we model ~17% FCF CAGR 2026-2028), upside toconsensus (JPMe ~LSD% above 2026-2028 consensus), healthy end-markets(pure financial services), insulation into the AI cycle (complex verticalsoftware and regulated end-market) and low valuation versus history. •Remaining core coverage offers modest upside potential: Sage (OW)weremove from our AFL and reduce PT to 1,300p (prior 1,500p), as whilst we seeattractive earnings growth and a de-rated valuation as positives, the AI risknarrative is more acute for Sage;Amadeus (OW) we see modest upside givenreasonable earnings growth in 2026/2027;Dassault Systemes (N)we lowerPT to €26 (prior €30) as we think the revenue growth acceleration built intoconsensus (particularly for 2027/2028) looks optimistic (Medidata peer Veeva See page 110 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. is indicating substantial growth ‘26-’30 in its Clinical Solutions revenue with a “large”EDC backlog) but valuation makes it difficult to find further downside on a 2 year view;Hexagon (N)we maintain our SEK 115 PT, seeing the Octave seperation as the keycatalyst through 2026;Nemetschek (UW)we lower our PT to €90 (prior €100) as weforecast a decelerating organic growth profile with downside to consensus, alongsideinvestors remaining cautious on AI disruption. •IT Services views into 2026 - key pick Computacenter: Computacenter (OW) -weincrease our PT to £33 (prior £30) with all three profit engines firing through 2026,supported by AI capex and German fiscal stimulus;Capgemini resume at N- seeingbetter fundamental growth trends (as are many IT Services peers) which is temping givende-rated valuations, though the long-term growth and margin algorit