2026年欧洲宏观展望：双经济体问题：能源冲击下的韧性与刚性

Europe Macro Outlook 2026The two-economy problem: resilience vs rigidity amid an energy shock Mark Wall | Managing DirectorChief European Economist May 2026 World Outlook 2026:Anything but dull 2026promisedtobeanythingbutdull.Itislivinguptoexpectations:theextractionofPresidentMadurofromVenezuela,theAI/Techsectorcorrection,threatstoGreenland,privatecredittensions,overturningoftheIEEPAtariffs,andwarinIranwithanewenergyshock.Evenifgeopoliticsquietens,AIislikelytocomebackanddominatemarketsentimentanddriveboom-and-bustnarratives. Europe’s “two-economy problem”:Resilience vs. Rigidity ThemoreupbeatperspectiveonEuropeputsemphasison‘resilience’.Growthoutperformedexpectationsin2025despitetheexternalheadwinds,thankstoarobustlabourmarket,effectivemonetarytransmission,etc.Germany’sexpansionaryfiscalpolicywasexpectedtoaddresiliencein2026.ThemoredownbeatperspectiveemphasizesEurope’s‘rigidity’.Weareinarapidlychangingworldmarkedbygeostrategiceconomiccompetition.Europeshouldbeinnovating,investing,reforming–andisfindingthisdifficult. Iran Shock:A new energy price shock Russia’sinvasionofUkrainein2022remindedusofsomethingimportant.JustastheGFCshowednowsensitiveeconomicgrowthistothe supplyof credit,economic growthisalsosensitive tothesupplyofenergy.All economicactivityhasan energycounterpart,somehigh,somelow.Whenenergycostsarehigh,andinparticularwhenenergyisinshortsupply,itisverydifficultfortheeconomytogrow.ThechartbelowshowsrealoilpriceswithUSrecessionsshaded Iran Shock:Signs of persistently higher oil prices Theglobaleconomy,andEurope,isinahighlycontingentsituation.Thepathofeconomiesandpolicywillbeafunctionofenergyprices.TheECBhasdevelopedabaselinescenarioandtworiskscenarios:adverseandsevere.GaspricesareveryclosetotheECB’sbaselinescenario.2026oilpriceshaveconvergedtotheadversescenario.2027oilpricesremainabovetheadversescenario. Euro Area Macro Forecasts:Inflation up, growth down Theenergyshockishavingadetrimentalimpactontheoutlook.OurbaselineforecastseesGDPgrowthat0.5%in2026(1.1%pre-conflict)and1.1%in2027(1.3%pre-conflict).WeforecastHICPinflationat3.1%in2026(1.8%pre-conflict)and2.5%in2027(1.9%pre-conflict).WethinktheconsensusandECBareunderestimatinginflationandasaconsequenceoverestimatinggrowth. Growth Signals:Soft in Q2, with downside risks TheeuroareacompositeoutputPMIindexfellinApriltoalevelconsistentwith-0.1%qoqGDPgrowth.Theweaknessislessevidentinmanufacturing–wheresupplyshortagesmaybetemporarilyliftingdemand–andmoreobviousinservices–whereinflationexpectationsarehittingdemand.TheDBFIStracker(RHS)impliesgrowthof+0.1%qoqinQ2(weakerZEWandBLShaveweighedonthesignalrecently). Activity Shock:Energy shock more clearly impacting services activity Therecentlossofeconomicmomentumismoreobviousinservices,wherethecountriesreportingthelargestdropsinconsumerconfidence(becauseofrisinginflation)arealsothecountriesreportingthelargestdropsinPMIservicesactivity. Divergence:Energy shock is largely a common shock across member states ThechangeintheEuropeanCommission’sEconomicSentimentIndex(ESI)–agoodgaugeofeconomicgrowth–showsaspreadofconditionsinthetwomonthssincethestartoftheMiddleEastconflict(LHS).TheCEEeconomiesaremostresilient,perhapsreflectingthelargerroleofmanufacturinginthoseeconomiesandthepotentiallytransitorystock-buildingimpulse.ThestandarddeviationofESIsacrossthememberstatesisataveragelevels(RHS).Thereisnosenseyetofasymmetricshock. Iran Shock:Recession risk has increased Oncurrentoilandgasprices,theeuroarea’senergyimportbillwillbeabout0.75%ofGDPhigherin2026than2025(LHSchart).GiventhatGDPgrowthwasexpectedtobemarginallyabove1%in2026(pre-conflictforecast),allelseunchangedthisenergypriceraisesaclearthreatofrecession.Ourmodelpointstoarecessionprobabilityof45%inQ2risingto60%inQ3. Positives #1:Labour market OneofthemainreasonsforamoreresilientthanexpectedperformancebytheEuropeaneconomyin2025wasarobustlabourmarket:employmentgrowthandwagegainssupportdisposableincome.Wecontinuetoseesignsofresiliencefromthelabourmarket,withunemploymentfallingintheperiphery(offsettingrisesinthecore)(LHS)andourdbDIGhouseholdsurveyshowingpositivesentimentinthejobsmarket(RHS). Positives #1:Labour market TheRHSchartshowsvariousindicatorsoflabourmarketconditions.Byandlarge,indicatorsaretowardstheoutsideoftheweb,implyingstrengthrelativetohistory.IntheLHSchartweextracttheprincipalcomponentsfromthissetoflabourmarketindicators.Theactivity(level)factorremainsstrong.Momentumhasweakened–notenoughtodragonthelevelfactor–buthasstabilised.Thepost-pandemicexcessinlabourmarkethasbeenremoved,buttheunderlyingpictureremainssolid. AI:Pros and cons ThereisalotoffocusonthepotentialdisruptiontoemploymentfromAI,andourdbDIGhouseholdsurveypointstorisingconcernsaboutjoblosses(LHS).However,thejobdisruptioncouldbenarrow(sectorspecific),atleastatfirst,andinanycasemaybethenegativelaboursupplyshockfromageing,tariffs/de-globalizationandsupply-chainfrictionsmeantheproductivityboomwon’tbelikethe1990s/2000s.Inthemeantime,maybetherearepositivedemandeffectsfromspendingonAI(