美国航空行业：达美航空上调目标价至106美元

Price Target ChangeDavid Vernon+1 917 344 8333david.vernon@bernsteinsg.com U.S. Airlines Justine Weiss+1 917 344 8433justine.weiss@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 106.00 USD(93.00OLD) Delta Air Lines (DAL) 2Q26: Taking numbers up on strong bookingcurve and pricing backdrop, raise PT to $106 Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported 2Q26 adj. diluted EPS of $1.56, above the high end of itsguided range ($1-$1.50 Exhibit 3) and +3% vs. the street / us (Exhibit 2). FY26 EPS guide of$6-7 (~18% above street estimates going into the print) was reaffirmed (Exhibit 6). It feels likebookings through 4Q are solid and pricing should hold up better than anticipated even as fuelmoderates. We take our FY26 adj. EPS up 18% and raise out-years ~9% on avg. as well ongreater conviction in a positive structural pricing shift in the industry. 2Q26 adj. EPS 3% beat and reaffirmed FY guide pointed to upside vs. estimates.Diversified revenue streams continued to bolster growth, comprising 61% of revenue, up 2points YoY. Premium product expansion remains a priority: already, capacity in premium —which boasts higher load factors — is +LSDs, while main cabin is down 2-3%. Domestictrajectory is looking good, especially from corporate sales perspective (>+20% YoY acrosscore / coastal hubs, even 30% in some big cities). Reaffirmed FY26 EPS outlook of $6.50-7.50implies 10% upside to consensus 3Q estimates (using new guidance of $2-$2.50, Exhibit 5)and 39% to 4Q estimates.Taking up our estimates.Solid demand with cash sales improvingthrough the quarter across entire booking curve in both main cabin and premium products;4Q bookings already coming in strong. YoY TRASM growth now expected to accelerate in 3Q(previously modeled similar growth to 2Q) and DAL’s outsized 4Q earnings expectation signalshigher conviction in fares moderating less than fuel prices and DAL retaining a portion of thatas earnings. We take up numbers to reflect 2Q beat / greater confidence in elevated airfaresholding up even as fuel prices come down. Fuel still a wildcard, but regardless structuralchanges in industry conduct support the view that the sector should re-rate. Investment Implications Reiterate Outperform rating, raise PT to $106. VALUATION COMPS TABLE EXHIBIT 1:DAL Price Target Table DAL:We reach our one-year price target of $106 (previously $93) by capitalizing our NTM+1 EBITDAR estimate of $12.614B(previously $11.852B) at a multiple of 6.8x (previously 6.5x) and deducting the value of net debt one year from now. Our $106(previously $93) price target equates to 10.9x (previously 10.4x) our NTM + 1 EPS estimate of $9.70 (previously $8.98). DETAILS Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported 2Q26 adj. diluted EPS of $1.56, above the high end of its guided range ($1-$1.50Exhibit 3) and+3% vs. the street / us (Exhibit 2). FY26 EPS guide of $6-7 that was ~18% above street estimates going into the print wasreaffirmed, as it seems booking curves through 4Q are solid and pricing should hold up better than anticipated even as fuelmoderates. We take our FY26 adj. EPS up 18% and raise out-years ~9% on avg. as well on greater conviction in a positivestructural pricing shift in the industry. 2Q26 beat and reaffirmed FY guide pointed to upside vs. estimates.Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported 2Q26 adj. diluted EPSof $1.56, above the high end of its guided range (i.e. $1-$1.50 Exhibit 3) and beating the street / us by 3% (Exhibit 2). Diversified revenue streams continue to bolster growth, comprising 61% of revenue, up 2 points YoY. Premium revenue grew17% YoY, which the company attributes to yield strength and premium seat investments; MRO, a major growth engine that thecompany has been shedding more light on, was up 32% YoY; and Cargo, which beat estimates by ~5%, was up 39% YoY on strongvolume. Domestic trajectory is looking good, especially from a corporate sales perspective… corporate sales were up over 20%YoY across core and coastal hubs, even 30% in some big cities like LA and Boston. The company reaffirmed the FY26 outlook for EPS of $6.50-7.50. The midpoint of that range was ~18% higher than streetestimates going into the print (Exhibit 6), implying 10% upside to consensus 3Q estimates (using the new guided range of $2-$2.50, Exhibit 5) and 39% to 4Q estimates. Taking up our estimates.Demand has remained solid with cash sales improving through the quarter across the entire bookingcurve in both main cabin and premium products; and even though it’s early, 4Q bookings are already coming in strong. Alongsidecapacity growth discipline at DAL and industry-wide (DAL pointing to very moderate ASM growth of ~1% in 3Q and 2-3% in 4Qas we already anticipated before the print), and a low-cost carrier environment plagued by high costs / difficulty covering cost ofcapital, elevated yield growth seems increasingly sustainable. As such, YoY TRASM growth is now expected to actually acceleratein 3Q from 2Q’s ~12.4% (we were previously modeling growth similar to 2Q’s levels) and DAL’s outsized 4