Credo Technology：AI连接的关键受益者，上调盈利预测与目标价至240美元

Key AI connectivity beneficiary, raiseestimates/PO to $240 Reiterate Rating:BUY| PO:240.00 USD| Price:171.13 USD 01 December 2025 Another+30-40% revision, now see $10+ l-t EPS power We reiterateBuy on CRDO, a top SMidcap pick and one of our 4 AI-levered top picks (alongwith NVDA, AVGO, AMD). New customer adoption/ramp and l-t product diversificationremain key to CRDO’s sales outlook, which both continue to execute strongly. With theAEC product now ramping at 4 large hyperscalers and the fifth customer also in initialvolume today, mgmt now expects sales to grow mid-single digit QoQ throughout FY26and FY27, suggesting consistent AEC ramps despite modest competition concerns (ALAB,MRVL, etc.). Moreover, CRDO expects new growth pillars of zero-flap optics family, activeLED cables (ALCs), and omni-connect gearboxes to each represent $bns in addressablemarket, totaling ~$10bn company TAM by the end of the decade. At 50% market share(in-line with terminal exit share outlook for AECs), or ~$5bn in annual sales, we thinkCRDO could see ~$10-11 in EPS power at 45% net margin, conceptually. This is also in-line with ~10% share assumption of total $50-60bn connectivity TAM by CY30E (5% of$1.2Tn+ AI TAM). Overall, we raise FY26/27/28E pf-EPS by 35-45% and increase our POto $240 from $165 on unchanged 70x CY26E PE based on ~1.8x PEG, higher-end of 1-2xrange, on continued EPS beat/raise, EPS power potential. Equity Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Likes:ramping AECs/customer base, expanding TAMOn the back of strong AEC ramps, CRDO sales increaseddouble-digit QoQ and triple- Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com digit YoY for the fourth consecutive quarter. Besides AECs, CRDO sees: 1) PCIe-basedretimers/AECs for meaningful revenue in FY27, 2) Ethernet-based DSPs and line cardscontinuing to ramp, 3) zero-flap optics (customized optical DSPs) initial revenue in FY27,4) Active LED Cable (ALCs) for initial revenue in FY28, and 5) Omni-connect gearboxeswith initial revenue in FY28. In total, we now see up to $10bn TAM for CRDO, driven byits system-level electrical/optical solutions that leverage its in-house SerDes. MichaelManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com Risks:AEC competition, optics/CPO transition 1)MRVL, AVGO, and ALAB continue to target 100G per lane AEC/DSP sockets or AECmodules for CY26 and beyond, potentially setting up for price erosion/share loss. 2)Competition in optical market is already fierce with large, established incumbents. Asthe industry eventually moves toward CPOs and other optical-based solutions frompassive/active copper, the market for AECs may also diminish quickly. BofA Securities doesand seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 16. Analyst Certification on page 11. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 10.12908474 Seepage5for Glossary iQprofileSMCredo Technology Company SectorSemiconductors Company Description Credo provides secure, high-speed connectivity solutionsthat deliver improved power and cost efficiency as datageneration and corresponding bandwidth requirementsincrease exponentially throughout the data infrastructuremarket. Credo's connectivity solutions are optimized foroptical and electrical Ethernet applications, including theemerging 100G (or Gigabits per second), 200G, 400G and800G markets. Investment Rationale We rate CRDO Buy. CRDO is the leader in the activeelectrical cable market where a multi-year adoption cycle isnow ahead of us driven by demand for power-efficient AIclusters. We also highlight growth opportunities for CRDOfrom expansion into adjacent products such as opticalDSPs, line card PHYs, retimers, as well as PCIe-basedofferings. We believe significant operating leverage coulddrive earnings growth much faster than sales for the nextfew years. Stock Data Summary of model changes Exhibit1: Summary of model changesWe adjust FY26/27E sales estimates by +24%/+29% versus prior FQ2 reported vs. expectations Exhibit2: Summary of FQ2resultsSales/EPSaboveStreet expectationsby14%/18c FQ3 guidance vs. expectations Balance Sheet Snapshot GlossaryAEC: Active Electrical Cable T: TerabitG: GigabitW: WattIP: Intellectual PropertyDSP: Digital Signal ProcessorPHY: Physical LayerPCIe: Peripheral Component Interconnect ExpressAI: Artificial IntelligenceLRO: Linear Receive OpticsNRE: Non-recurring engineeringCPO: Co-Packaged OpticsMRVL: Marvell TechnologyAVGO: BroadcomALAB: Astera LabsMSFT: MicrosoftAMZN: AmazonAWS: Amazon Web ServicesNVDA: NvidiaCRDO: Credo TechnologyGPU: Graphics Processing UnitPCIe: Peripheral Component Interconnect ExpressTAM: Total Addressable MarketLED: Ligh