西部数据2026财年第三季度：紧跟领导者；重申跑赢大盘，上调盈利预测及目标价至590美元

mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com +1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com +1917 3448481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com @WDC WDC FQ3'26: Follow the leader; Reiterate Outperform, raiseestimates and TP to $590 WDCdeliveredabroadbasedbeat inFQ3as strongHDDdemandandpricing lifts allboats.HDDASPwasup7%QoQand9%YoY,betterthanexpectationsfollowingthesametheme we heard from STX (see here).HDD shipment rose 33.7% YoY to 222 EB, exactlythe same as our estimates.Both contributedto an EPSof $2.13,beating us at $1.9 andconsensus at $1.95. FQ4guidancealsobeats streetexpectations.WDCisguidingfor $3.65bn inrevenueatmidpoint, vs cons at 3.48bn.Grossmargin is expectedto be 51-52%,and EPS is projectedto be $3.1-3.4, higher than cons at $2.73. SimilartoSTX,WDC'sLTAsare structured sothatvolumecommitments extendbeyond pricinglocks,with some volume visibility extending into CY29,while pricing isgenerally lockedforroughly1year. WDCcontinuestomakeprogressonHAMRbutstill lagsSTX.WDCmade incrementalprogress on HAMR, with 4 customers now in qualification for the 44TB HAMR drive. Rising tide lifts all boats: We raise estimates significantly to $20.19 and $27.94 inFY27andFY28(41%and42%aboveconsensus)respectively. InvestmentImplications and 9% YoY,betterthan expectations.On the other hand, HDD shipment rose 33.7% youto 222 EB,exactlythe same as ourestimates.Both contributedto an EPS of $2.13, beating us at $1.9 and consensus at $1.95. margin is expected to be 51-52%,and EPS is projected to be $3.1-3.4, higher than cons at $2.73. extending into CY28 and CY29, while pricing is generally locked for only roughly 1 year. This structure gives WDCthe abilitytoperiodicallyrenegotiatepricing,andmanagement implied that resets are staggered acrossquarters, creatingrepricing, incremental volume above the committed LTA amount that can be priced at more market-based levels,and non-nearline pricing tailwinds as NAND inflation makes HDDs relatively more attractive in overlapping use cases. there is still a bit more work to be done on yield, reliability,and quality. In the near term, WDC's roadmap is stll primarily drivenby next-gen ePMR and UItra SMR rather than HAMR, leaving it behind STX's HAMR-led roadmap.We continue to model better WDC still holds 1.7mn Sandisk shares,andmanagement intends to monetize the remaining stakevia a tax-free equity-for-equity swap before the end of CY26.Economically,this should function like a synthetic share buyback: instead of sellingtheSandisk shares forcashand separately repurchasing WDC stock,WDC would effectivelyexchangethe SanDisk equityvalueforits own equity, reducing the share count in a tax efficient way. Rising tide lifts all boats: We raise estimates significantly to$20.19and $27.94 in FY27and FY28 (41% and42% aboveconsensus) respectively We reiterateWDCOutperformand increaseTPtoS590,on21x(vs.2Ox beforegiven higherEPSgrowth)ourFY28EPS.PEof 21xis inline with recent market multiple and arguably conservative given its 5 year EPS CAGR of 60% (FY25-30E). Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. Referencesto"Bernstein"orthe"Firm”inthese disclosuresrelateto thefollowingentities:BernsteinInstitutionalServices LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordSanfordC.BernsteinJapanKK（7才一下·C·八一个株式会社）andanalystsemployedbySocieteGeneraleAfrica Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. conservativegivenits5yearEPSCAGRof60%(FY25-30E) RISKS WesternDigital Corp The biggest risks to the downside on WDC and to our price target are that: 1) The HDD market is heavily exposed to hyperscalepatterns; 2)NANDcould seebetterthanexpectedtechnology improvement andtake sharefromHDDs; and 3)WDCcouldface RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Largeand Mid CapPrice Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: .Outperform:Stockwilloutpacethemarket indexbymorethan15pp : Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to wi