Rate Check：宏观与市场交汇 美国全景：中期选举、美联储与美元

EuropeJapanNorth America All things US: midterms, Fed and thedollar - Transcript Shreyas Gopal Executive Summary Strategist+44-20-754-51501 This episode of Rate Check, a podcast from Deutsche Bank Research, discussesrecent market developments, including geopolitical tensions, US economic data,and their implications for monetary policy and currency markets. The podcastfeatures insights from Deutsche Bank's macro strategist Henry Allen, FX strategistShreyas Gopal, senior US economist Brett Ryan, and head of FX research forAmericas Tim Baker. Key topics include the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, theoutlook for the US dollar, the yen's performance, and the potential impact of theupcoming US midterm elections and the neutral rate of interest on financialmarkets. Henry AllenMacro Strategist+44-20-754-11149 Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Tim BakerMacro Strategist+1-212-250-9127 Key TakeawaysFed's Tightening Stance: The recent news flow, including Fed minutes and ninflation data, reinforces the view that the Fed will likely tighten policy, witha base case of 25 basis point hikes in both September and December. Thereis an upside risk of a July hike due to persistent inflation and geopoliticalfactors. nUS Dollar Outlook: While the dollar has rallied post-FOMC, its currentvaluation makes chasing it higher less attractive. A potential July Fed hikewould be an upside risk for the dollar, but the broader picture suggests thedollar is well-priced, and its strength may be tempered by factors likeexpanding twin deficits and a moderating AI theme. nYen and CPI: USD/JPY is a key cross to watch ahead of the next CPI report.A softer CPI print could lead to USD/JPY weakening, while the threat ofpotential intervention to prevent excessive yen depreciation remains. nUS Midterm Elections: The upcoming midterms could significantly impactthe political landscape. Historically, the President's party tends to lose seatsin midterms, and current polling suggests Democrats have a higherprobability of taking the House. nDebt Ceiling and Fiscal Issues: If Democrats gain control of the House, thedebt ceiling is expected to become a contentious issue again around mid-next year, coinciding with a bruising budget battle. Long-term fiscalchallenges, such as Social Security insolvency by 2032, also loom. nNeutral Rate Debate: Fed Chair Walsh's upcoming testimony may addressthe debate around the neutral rate of interest, particularly in the context ofpotential AI-driven productivity booms. A higher neutral rate could providefurther impetus for the Fed to hike rates. nBank of Canada: The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold, withdata not showing significant deterioration, but oil price drops potentiallyleading to a downgrade in hawkish language. Cleaned & Structured Transcript Introduction and Market Overview [00:00] Speaker 1 (Henry Allen): Welcome to Rate Check, a podcast from DeutscheBank Research. I'm Henry Allen, macro strategist, and I'm joined by my co-host andFX strategist, Shreyas Gopal. Speaker 2 (Shreyas Gopal): Hello, Henry. Great to be back. Henry Allen: Over the last two weeks, it might appear that not a lot has changed inmarkets in terms of headline values. However, under the surface, quite a lot hasbeen going on, particularly geopolitically. Oil prices are at their highest level innearly three weeks, with Brent crude at $79 a barrel, as the interim deal between theUS and Iran shows signs of strain. Last week, we also had an underwhelming USjobs report, with payrolls up only 57,000 and downward revisions for the previouscouple of months. While not terrible in absolute terms, some market momentumhas been lost. Shreyas Gopal: You're absolutely right. If you'd been away for the last two and a halfweeks, you might think everything looks flat. But as you mentioned, there havebeen interesting stories geopolitically and in the US, which we'll explore. Here inEurope, our colleagues have extensively covered the German reform package,including income tax and pension reform, which should impact the economy interms of confidence and competitiveness over the next year. Our European equitystrategists believe this should attract inflows. So, despite the calm surface,fascinating dynamics are playing out underneath. Most interestingly, regarding theUS, we've seen softer NFP, Fed minutes, and CPI coming next week. This makes itthe perfect time to bring in our senior US economist. Federal Reserve Policy and US Economic Outlook [00:02] Shreyas Gopal: Hello, Brett Ryan. Speaker 3 (Brett Ryan): Hey, Shreyas. Henry. Thank you for having me on theprogram. Shreyas Gopal: It's great to have you with us. As we've alluded to, there's been a lotgoing on. How has the recent news flow over the past week or so affected yourteam's views regarding the Fed minutes last night, last week's data, and nextweek's CPI? Brett Ryan: It has really reinforced our view that the Fed will have to tighten policythis year. Our ba