利率检查：宏观与市场交汇之处——收益率上升，美元下跌 - 文字记录

Rate Check: WhereMacro MeetsMarkets Yields up, dollar down - Transcript Strategist Executive Summary +44-20-754-51501Henry Allen InthefirsteditionofourRateCheckpodcast,ShreyasGopal(FxStrategist)andHenryAllen(MacroStrategist)arejoinedbyFrancisYared(GlobalHeadofRatesResearch)andGeorgeSaravelos(GlobalHeadofFXResearch).Theydelveintothecyclicalandstructuraldriversbehindtheirrespectiveratesandcurrencymarketoutlooks,andhighlightthebiggestrisks tomonitor. Macro Strategist+44-20-754-11149George Saravelos Strategist+44-20-754-79118 Transcript Strategist+44-20-754-54017 Introductionto"Rate Check"[Oo:oo]ShreyasGopal:Welcometo"RateCheck,"apodcastfromDeutscheBank Research.I'm Shreyas Gopal,part of the strategyteam,and I'm joined by my co-host and macro strategist, Henry Allen. Hello, Henry Henry Allen: Hi, Shreyas. Shreyas Gopal: Since this is the first episode of what we hope will be an engagingseriesforouraudience,whydon'twespendacoupleof minutesoutliningwhatWe're hoping to do with this series? Henry Allen: Sure. It's a fascinating time right now to be talking about macromarkets. We have so much going on in the news. We're in an incredibly volatileenvironment,so there arelots of themestodiscuss.The aim is that Deutsche BankResearch,ourFixedIncome,Currency,and Commodities(FicC)Researchteam,willbringinvariousguestsandexpertswhocanrunusthroughsomeoftheeventsandthemesthatarehappeningandwhatthatmeansformarkets. Shreyas Gopal:Absolutely.And sinceyou mentioned guests, it's a good time tointroduce the speakersforourfirstepisode.We're delightedto be joined by FrancisYared,GlobalHeadofRatesResearchandmyboss,GeorgeSaravelos,Global HeadofFXResearch.Welcome, Francis. Francis Yared:Thank you Shreyas Gopal: And welcome, George. Rate Check:Where Macro Meets Markets [0o:01]Shreyas Gopal:Let's startby setting a littlebitofcontextforour discussion before we dive into bonds and the dollar.We're recording on Thursday, the 16th ofApril.Atthetimeofrecording,it'sfairtosaythatthewidespreadexpectationacrossmarkets is that the ceasefire between Iranand the US will be extended,but we'restill awaiting further details. To start a FicC podcast, focusing on the equity side,whichisprobablythemostremarkablemovewe'veseeninrecentweeks,isthattheS&P500isactuallyhigherthan where wewere heading intotheconflict atthe endofFebruary.Henry,you've written a little bit about this alongside our colleagues inthe US. Do youfind this a little less surprising than perhaps I have? Henry Allen:Yes.It's really striking,as you say,Shreyas.The S&P500 yesterday hita record high, surpassing the 7000 mark forthe first time. This is pretty remarkablegiveneverythingthat'sgoing on,butactually,Ithinkthis is notas irrationalas somepeoplethink.We'vehadalotofquestions on whythismightbe,butifyoucompareittoalotofpreviousoilshocks,whetherthat's2022orsomeofthehistoricalshocksofthe1970s,itdoesn'tlook asbad.Markets,to some extent, are looking throughthis, lookingtowards a de-escalation pathwaywiththe talks. Oil prices are stillbelow $10 a barrel, and if you look at the Brent futures curve, it's pretty sharplydownward sloping. Six-month Brent futures are only around $83-$84 a barrel.Investors arenot expecting this tobea sustained conflict. [00:03] Henry Allen:Thisis different from what was the casein 2022.Even a monthintoRussia'sinvasionofUkraine,six-monthBrentfuturesexpectationswereforoiltobe above$1oo a barrelformanymonthslater.Thisdifference inexpectations iswhat's actually helping to keep risk assets at their current levels. Another bigdifference between 2022 and what happened in the 1970s is that inflation goingintothisisbroadlyattargetlevels.Whereasbackin2022,weweretalkingabout5%or6%inflationevenbeforeRussiainvadedUkraine.So,thenecessityforsomesortofbighawkishresponsefromcentral banks,ofthesortwe sawafewyearsago,isnot being discussed to the same extent today. Shreyas Gopal:Yes,we'll definitelygetontocentral banks and the repricing that'sgoing on there. In fact,maybe that's a good segueto bring in Francis on theratesside.Onebenchmarkassetclassthatwelookatdailyhasn'tfullyreversedthemove,and thatistheUs10-yearyield.Whydon'tyou shareyourlatestthoughts onwhereweare,andwhyamlreadingyoucorrectlythatyou'realsonotthatsurprisedthat we haven't fully reverted to where we were on February27th? Rates, Inflation, and the Role of Bonds [00:04] Francis Yared:Sure. Letme startbymaking thepoint that the starting point,that is,where we were at the end of Februarywasprobably overemphasizing therisk associated with the economy and monetary policybeyond what thesubsequent data has justified. In a nutshell, if you look at the data we have so far,you're looking at an environment where inflation is goingto be above targetfortheforeseeable future. On the labor market side, you have an environment wheremonetarypolicyis arguablynotrestrictive,fiscal policyis getting easier,andthat'sbeing reflected in the labormarket, which is stabilizing.From that perspective, it'sdifficult to economicall