星巴克（SBUX.US）2026财年三季报前瞻

RatingBuy Forecast Change North AmericaUnited States ConsumerRestaurants Into the F3Q26 Print Valuation & Risks Lauren Silberman, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-1285 SBUX F3Q26 Earnings Preview SBUX reports F3Q26 earnings on 7/29 AMC. We expect SBUX to deliver a solid F3Q with US SSS and EPS beats. We believe USSSS remained strong during the quarter (we now model +6.5%) reflecting benefitsfrom the flywheel effect of better operations, strong cadence of relevant innovationand more effective marketing. We are encouraged by underlying momentum andexpect SBUX to begin to demonstrate improving flowthrough as the companyoptimizes investments and the overall cost structure. We continue to like the near-term setup on SBUX as a self-help story with building momentum and potential forbeats & raises, as well as the long-term outlook, supported by conviction in SBUX'sability to deliver sustainably, solidly positive SSS (in an attractive beveragecategory) and a multi-year period of outsized earnings growth. Anish ChejerlaResearch Associate+1-212-250-9293 Skyler LimberResearch Associate+1-212-250-9185 nNorth America/US SSS:We are increasing our F3Q North America/US SSSto 6.5% (from 6%) as we believe momentum continued throughout thequarter, relative to sell-side at 6.2%, with buy-side likely 6-7%. Forreference, Bloomberg Second Measure data suggests F3Q US salesdecelerated ~60bps from F2Q. We expect underlying NA SSS momentumto continue, supported by benefits from better operations, menu innovationand marketing efforts, and model F4Q SSS +5% and FY27 SSS +4%, largelyin-line with sell-side. nInternational SSS:We are increasing our F3Q International SSS to 4.5%(from 3.5%) on brand momentum and easy compares, particularly in Japan,which had negative SSS in the prior year (due to the lapping of a strong LTOand soft consumer sentiment). We believe F3Q will be the first quarterwhere China will not be reported in International SSS, and thus Japan willbe the majority of the International SSS base (78% of international companyunits), followed by the UK (19% of international company units). We modelnormalized International SSS of 3% in F4Q (consensus 3.2%) and 3% inFY27 (consensus 3.2%). nEPS:We model F3Q EPS of $0.67, above consensus' $0.65, primarilydriven by higher top-line and margin flowthrough. We continue to modelF4Q EPS of $0.68, bringing our FY26 EPS to $2.42, relative to SBUX's guideof $2.25-2.45 and consensus at $2.41. DuringF3Q,Starbucks South Korea faced backlash following acontroversial marketing promotion, and media reports citing industry data 9 July 2026RestaurantsStarbucks suggest a meaningful impact to sales in the market. Starbucks Korearepresents nearly 10% of international units and generates $2BN+ insystem sales. We estimate the market represents ~10% of internationaloperating income (using ~5% royalty rate), and assuming a ~10% hit tosales in F3Q and 20% in F4Q, we estimate a ~$3MM drag in F3Q and ~$5MM drag in F4Q (~$0.01 to EPS for the year). nValuation:Our $120 target price is based on ~35x our NTM EPS in 12months, implying ~20x our NTM EBITDA in 12 months. Our P/E multiple isabove SBUX's historical 20-30x range given expectations for outsizedgrowth over a multi-year period off of trough numbers. Risks: consumerspending, inflation, and competition. Figure 1: DB vs Consensus F3Q26 Figure 2: DB vs Consensus FY26 9 July 2026RestaurantsStarbucks Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investment banking related services. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 24.Deutsche Bank and