百思买公司（BBY）2026财年第一季度跟进：关税得到控制但收入上限存在不确定性

Restricted - External BBYEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Broadlines, Hardlines &Food RetailNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 74.00lowered -17% from USD 89.00Price (28-May-25)USD 71.52Potential Upside/Downside+3.5%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)15139Shares Outstanding (mn)211.69Free Float (%)91.8952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)3.4Dividend Yield (%)5.31Return on Equity TTM (%)31.63Current BVPS (USD)13.28Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 103.71-54.99Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. Broadlines, Hardlines & FoodRetailSeth Sigman+1 212 526 7417seth.sigman@barclays.comBCI, USOliver Hu+1 212 526 6180oliver.hu@barclays.comBCI, USTheo Brito+1 212 526 9504theo.brito@barclays.comBCI, US •Updatedimports/tariffdisclosurespoint to a ~13% blended averagetariffrate on BBY’sentire assortment per our calculations. That said, BBY noted that price increases will be lessthan this as BBY works with its vendors to mitigate and absorb some of these costs.•Price increases:The company has raised prices in mid-May, which we believe fullyembedded existingtariffs(i.e. we are not anticipating more short-term phases of priceincreases). While it's early, the company highlighted it's not seeing significant elasticity yet.•GM revised down:FY26 GM guidance was lowered to down slightly from flat to +20bps y/y,which primarily reflects greater product mix pressures andtariffimpacts, partiallyoffsetbyservices margins becoming a benefit y/y vs. neutral prior. Q2 GM is expected to be flattish y/y.•SG&A lower:BBY now expects FY26 SG&A rate to be down slightly y/y vs. flat previously,driven by the tax settlement and lower incentive comp. However, SG&A is expected todeleverage 50bps in Q2 as the company laps a $20m combined benefit from a legalsettlement and lower medical claims last year. By our math, this implies Q2 EPS around~$1.20 vs. consensus $1.32•Message remains positive on strategic initiativesto drive a better customer experienceand generate cost savings, including greater use of AI and technology. Marketplace and Adsremain on track and are still expected to be a benefit to FY26.Adjusting estimates:We lower Q2 comps to -0.2% from +1.0% previously and Adj. EPS to $1.21from $1.37 based on the updated guidance and commentary. For 2025, we lower comps to+0.1% from +1.2% and Adj. EPS to $6.24 from $6.33. For 2026, we maintain comps of +2.1% butlower Adj. EPS to $6.70 from $7.02 on the lower 2025 base. Our PT goes to $74 from $89 and isbased on 11x our updated 2026E Adj. EPS (previously 14x our prior 2025E Adj. EPS); we lowerour target multiple to 11x as we roll our valuation out to 2026, which balances BBY's solidexecution with ongoing macro volatility.BBY: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY JanActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q11.20A1.06E1.15A1.20AN/A1.28E1.09E-4%11%Q21.34A1.37E1.21E1.34AN/A1.33E1.32E-10%10%Q31.26A1.32E1.31E1.26AN/A1.39E1.25E4%6%Q42.58A2.59E2.57E2.58AN/A2.72E2.50E-0.39%6%Year6.36A6.33E6.24E6.37A7.02E6.70E6.15E-2%7%P/E11.211.510.7Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 29-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research 2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Seth Sigman, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of resea