人头马君度2025财年收益略超预期；但2026财年关税冲击的规模存在较大不确定性

Nadine Sarwat, CFA+44 207 676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Matthew Cheung+44 207 676 6809matthew.cheung@bernsteinsg.com Price Target RCO.FP Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 207 762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com Quick Take: Rémy Cointreau FY25 Earnings were a small beat; butthe big uncertainty is the scale of FY26 Tariff hit Rémy Cointreau reported F25 sales a month ago (summary here), posting a -18% organictopline decline. Today, the company reported earnings for the same period, in line with ourexpectations and a bit ahead of consensus. Current Operating Profit (COP) was€217m, a little above expectations (Cons €214m,Bern €218m). Organic COP declined by -30.5%, slightly better than cons (-31.7%), in-linewith our expectations (-30.3%). Gross margins were resilient considering the high inputcosts and unfavorable price-mix (-0.6pp to 70.6%). A small decrease in marketing spendcombined with OH cost control and favourable FX impact limited the hit to margins despitethe operating deleverage (-3.5pp to 22%). Cognacsaw profits down -32.4%, in line with cons (-32.4%) and below us expectations(-29.7%), due to the decline in sales, high production costs and unfavorable price-mix.Liqueurs & Spiritsposted -10.5% organic COP growth, less worse than expected (Bern-19%, cons -16%).Adjusted net profitof €128m came in 3.4% above cons, in line with us. Guidance for FY26is at +MSD% organic sales growth driven by a likely rebound in theUS and China, and organic COP growth of HSD to low DD% (ex. tariffs). However, includingpotential tariff from China (38%) and the US (20% on EU), organic COP is guided to -mid/high teens%. FX hit is guided at -€30 to 35m on sales and -€10 to 15m on COP (weare at -€12m). As expected, Rémy have withdrawn their long-term guidance given themacroeconomic uncertainties, especially around tariffs and recovery in the US. We reiterate our Outperform rating, based on very attractive valuation and our view thatCognac is not structurally impaired, but acknowledge the lack of visibility in the short-term.Company will hold a conference call at 9am CET/8am UK time (here). INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We have an Outperform rating on Rémy Cointreau with a PT of €80. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Rémy Cointreau SA We value Rémy Cointreau on a P/E NTM+1 basis, at a target multiple of 25.7x, reaching a PT of €80. RISKS Rémy Cointreau SA Potential downside risks to our Outperform rating and Price Target: •The recovery in China keeps getting delayed•USA underlying trends remain weak•Elevated inventories in the US and in China impact the category RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: •Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp •Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp •Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 pp Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been sus