人头马君度（RCO FP）：2025财年业绩：风险回报有利

2026E2027E932.2999.7(2.1)%7.4%2.6x2.4x1,001.61,067.3 2028E1,072.27.4%2.2x1,129.7 Edward Mundy, ACA * | Equity Analyst44 (0)20 7029 8476 | emundy@jefferies.comAndrei Andon-Ionita, CFA * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207548-4173 | aandon-ionita@jefferies.comRC Cognac US volume depletions FY25.-32%-12%-12%-5%0%Q1Q2Q3Source: Jefferies, Company dataExhibit 3 - Remy cognac inventory in US belowpre-covid level.Source: Jefferies, Company data The Long View: Rémy CointreauInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWith Cognac accounting for c.90% of profits, we believe Rémy is attractivelypositioned for medium-term growth due to high barriers to entry in Cognac,limited supply, and premium pricing with authenticity and heritage.Base Case,€70, +49%•F26 org sales/EBIT -2.1%/-8.4%•F27 org sales/EBIT +7.4%/+16.2%•Spot price for F26 assumed €1: $1.15, hedgedprice €1: $1.12•DCF-driven PT of €70.Sustainability MattersTop Material ESG Issue(s): Responsiblesourcing and production.Alcoholic beverage companiessource a large variety of agricultural ingredients. The ability to source ingredients at the right pricefluctuates with supply availability, which can be affected by climate change, water scarcity, and otherresource-scarcity considerations. Remy Cointreau puts sourcing and terroir at the heart of its long-term strategy.Company Target(s):Three-prong CSR strategy: 1) Preserving terroirs: 78% land engaging responsiblefarming (2020 58%). 2) Committing to people: 84/100 gender equality index (2021-23). 3) Resources:44% renewable energy (26% in 2021). -9% change in carbon footprint per bottle.Questions to Management:1) How do you work with your winegrowers and partners to optimizesourcing and prioritise terroir? 2) What is the risk that alcohol follows the route of tobacco from aconsumer and regulatory perspective? 3) How is ESG integrated into your strategy and managementcompensation?Link to ESG Integration Sector Report- herePlease see important disclosure information on pages 15 - 20 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,€140, +198%•Outperformance vs long-term strategy•FX (USD and/or CNY strength vs EUR) andmacro.•Faster-than-expected margin expansion.•Value-accretive acquisitions and continuedtransition from a spirits company to a luxurygoods company.•Upside PT €140. Downside Scenario,€30, -36%•Slower recovery and prolonged period ofrecession.•FX, macro, regulatory, tariff risk.•Deterioration in Chinese,US,travel retailcognac markets.•Inventory destocking if recovery does notmaterialise.•Sector valuations compressing from rising US10yr rates.•Downside PT €30, with value of inventoryproviding downside support.CatalystsJuly 2025: 1Q26 sales updateOct 2025: 1H sales updateNov 2025: 1H results 2 What's changed?Our organic forecasts for F26 are broadly unchanged with org sales -2.1% andorg EBIT -8.4%. However, we increase our F26 EBIT and EPS estimates by 4% to reflect the higherF25 base. PT to €70.Exhibit 4 - Changes to estimates.Forecast ChangesGroup (EURm)SalesOrganic (%)FXM&AAdjusted EBITOrganic (%)EBIT marginYoY Margin (bps)Adjusted EPSCognacOrganic sales (%)EBITOrganic EBIT (%)EBIT MarginYoY Margin (bps)Liqueurs & SpiritsOrganic sales (%)EBITOrganic EBIT (%)EBIT MarginYoY Margin (bps)Partner BrandsOrganic sales (%)EBITOrganic EBIT (%)EBIT MarginYoY Margin (bps)Source: Jefferies, Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 15 - 20 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. NewOld% DiffNew9329201.3%1,000-2.1%-2.1%0.0%7.4%-3.3%-4.5%1.2%-0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1841774.1%214-8.4%-7.8%-0.5%16.2%19.8%19.2%+52bp21.4%-226bp-177bp+160bp1.951.884.0%2.38561548604-5.0%-5.0%0.0%8.0%153.6153.4176.3-10.0%-10.0%0.0%15.0%27.4%28.0%-59bp29.2%-275bp-204bp+178bp3523523763.0%3.0%0.0%7.0%52.044.058.85.0%5.0%0.0%13.0%14.8%12.5%+231bp15.6%+20bp+17bp+83bp202020-1.0%-1.0%0.0%-1.0%(1.4)(0.3)(1.4)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-7.0%-1.5%-546bp-7.0%-7bp-2bp-7bp F26 GuidanceThe wide range of guidance largely reflects uncertainty around tariffs.•Topline guidance:Return to organic growth in sales (mid-single-digits) - outperformanceof Americas starting from Q1, return to organic growth in H2. This reflects easy basis ofcomparison on shipments and depletions and very low levels of inventory in the US.•No tariff situation:in the event of no tariffs, company guidance is for HSD to LDD org EBITgrowth. This reflects the benefit of positive operating leverage after significant cost cuttingover the past few years.•Tariffs worst-case scenario:Tariffs could have a maximum gross impact of €100m (€60min China and €40m in US). Action plan to offset up to 35% of this impact, which implies anet impact of €40m in China and €25m in US. This would imply an organic decline of mid-to high-teens.•FX:Negative FX effect on Sales (-€30m/-€35m), on COP (-€10m/-€15m)Exhibit 5 - Strategic priorities in an unpredictable environment.Sour