安踏体育2026年第二季度前瞻：零售销售放缓，但2026财年仍在正轨上

Forecast Change China Textiles, Apparel & LuxuryGoods2Q Preview: Retail Sales Decelerated, but FY26 Remains on Track SammiXu Research Analyst+852-2203-5415 Antawillrelease its2Q26operationalupdateaftermarket closeonJuly14.We forecastAntabrand retailsalestobeflattishYoY,comparedtohigh-single-digitgrowthin1Q26,ase-commercerecoveryisoffsetbycoolerofflinesalesin2Q26.Fila growth likely slowed from low-teens to mid-single-digit YoY, but should stilloutperformpeersonsolidbrandmomentum.Otherbrands,includingDescenteand Kolon, likely grew around 30%YoY, supported by strong outdoor demand.The slowdownis in line with softer China consumption,whileAnta shouldcontinueto outperform peers given solid DTC execution and a diversified brand portfolio. DBmodelupdate:FY26netprofitfine-tunedtoRMB14.1bnAnta's robust 1Q retail sales providea bufferfor FY26 despite softer 2Q trends.We expect the company to reaffirmFY26 guidance: low-single-digit growth forAnta,mid-single-digit growth for Fila, and over 20% growth for other brands. Weforecast1H26revenuegrowthof10.1%YoYandnetprofitgrowthof3.9%YoYtofactor inahigherA&Pexpensecomparedto1H25.ForFY2026,weforecast9.4%YoYrevenuegrowthtofactorinasofteningconsumptionenvironment.Ourrevised2026model impliesa16.1%netprofitmarginandRMB14.1bnnetprofit,reflecting stronger Amer results.Our FY26 net profit forecast is 2% belowBloombergconsensusof RMB14.5bn,whilethecurrentsharepriceimplies12.8x2026EP/Ebased on our estimates. We maintain ourBuy ratingand fine-tune ourtarget priceto HKs85fromHKs87,implying15x2026EP/E. Textiles, Apparel & Luxury GoodsAnta Textiles, Apparel & Luxury GoodsAnta Textiles, Apparel & Luxury GoodsAnta ANTA Sports is a multi-brand sportswear group in China,ranking No.1 in sportswear in terms of revenue. Its brand portfolio includes Core Anta brand, Fila, and other brands(Descente and Kolon), with revenue contribution of 49%,40%, ~11%, respectively. The company's store networkincludes over 9k Anta stores, about 2k Fila stores, and100-200 stores for Descente and Kolon. Cash Flow (CNYm)Cash flow from operations Balance Sheet (CNYm)Cash and other liquid assets KeyCompanyMetrics SammiXu+852 2203 5415sammi.xu@db.com Textiles, Apparel & Luxury GoodsAnta Investment Thesis ers in the industry.Founded in 1991,Anta initiallyfocused on mass-market athleticfootwearandapparelwithinChina.Overitsthree-decadehistory,thecompanyhasstrategicallyevolved froma single-brandoperatorintoamulti-brandpowerhousewithaglobal presence,effectivelycapturingdiversemarketsegmentsfrommass-markettopremiumperformanceand lifestyle.This extensivebrand ecosystem-includingcoreAnta (44%ofgrouprevenue),Fila(36%),Otherbrands(20%,suchasoutdoor-focused Descente&Kolon),anda40%stake inanotherglobalplatformforsportsand outdoorbrands-is designedto effectivelycounter macroheadwinds.By capitalizing on consumers'demand for functionality and specialized brands,Anta's portfolio gains a significant competitive edge in securing increased marketshare.WeprojectthatAnta'srobustdiversificationand internationalizationstrate-gy will drive high-single-digit growth for the next five years, making it a compellingchoice for long-term investors; Buy Valuation WeusediscountedcashflowanalysistovalueAnta.OurDCFassumptionsinclude:a1.7% risk-free rate,1.35beta, 6.5%market riskpremium, WACC of9.8%and aterminal growth rate of 0.0% (in line with regional coverage averages) Risks Key risks:1)weaker-than-expectedmacro,whichmightleadtoless storetraffic; 2)excessinventory;3)fashionriskwhichmightimpactthesalesofitspremiumprod-uct line; and 4) intensified competition in Chinese sportswear sector due to moreaggressive promotional activities Appendix 1 *Other information available upon request s://research.db.com/Re Important Disclosures Required by U.S. RegulatorsDisclosuresmarked withanasteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction inadditiontothe UnitedStates.See 1.Within the_past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company,for which it receivedfees.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissuedbythiscompany7.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)hasreceivedcompensationfromthiscompanyfortheprovisionof investmentbankingorfinancialadvisoryserviceswithinthepastyear.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)expects to receive,or intends to seek,compensation for investment bankingservices fromthis company inthenextthree months.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this companywithin the past yearfor non-investmentbankingrelated services.15.investmentbankingservices. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. RegulatorsDisclosuresmarked with anasteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction in additiontothe United States.See ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-USRegulatorsand ExplanatoryNotesWithinthe past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)has managed or co-managed