电动汽车追踪报告 - 2026年2月：2026年初销售疲软，但燃油价格上涨会提振销量吗？
EV TRACKER - February 2026: Slow start to 2026, but will higherfuel prices lift sales? February’26 global passenger xEV (BEV + PHEV) sales reached 1.02M (-12% YoY,-13% MoM).For February, China accounted for 46% of global xEV sales followed byEurope at 30% and N. America at 8%. Readers can download the EV tracker data set here:Link. We forecast 14% EV sales growth in 2026 which will take xEV penetration to c. 32%(vs. 28% in 2025). Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com China EV sales softened on subsidies cut (-25% YoY for 2M26), while the U.S.demand continued to decline (-29% YoY this month) following the removal of CVCincentives.In contrast, Europe and the RoW recorded strong growth. EV sales inChinawere 469K units (-31% YoY) in February (vs. 12.9M units in 2025, +16% YoY).EuropeanEV salesremained solid at 309K units (+21% YoY, vs. +35% in 2025).N. Americasaw adecline in demand with EV sales of 87K units (-29% YoY, vs. -5% in 2025).RoWgrew by57% YoYto 154K units. Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Outside of China EV demand growth remained strong (+16% YoY this month), whileboth BEV (-34% YoY) and PHEV (-26% YoY) demand slowed in China as the marketmatured.PHEV sales declined by -12% y-o-y to 332K units (+10% in 2025) and BEVsalso declined by -12% to 689K units (+26% in 2025). BEV sales accounted for 60% ofChina xEV sales, 67% for Europe, 84% for N. America and 81% for RoW. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Among the OEMs, BYD, Tesla and Geely continued to lead sales, although BYDposted a YoY sales decline this month.In February, BYD (based on SNE data) led themarket with 118K sold (-47% YoY) followed by Tesla with 100K units (+9% YoY), Geelywith 55K units (-26% YoY), VW with 31K units (-3.6% YoY), and CHANGAN with 30K units(-33% YoY). For European brands, VW was strongest with 31K units (-3.6% YoY), BMW sold29K units (-19%), Mercedes 22K units (-15%), and Volvo 18K units (-11%). Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Battery demand is outstripping EV demand as batteries get cheaper and bigger.Li-ion battery demand for passenger EVs decreased 4% YoY to 55GWh this month which wasbetter than xEV sales. Battery sales in China were 23.9GWh (-19% YoY vs. EV sales -31%YoY), Europe were 16.1GWh (+16% YoY), N. America were 6.7GWh (-28% YoY). Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT, CATL and CALB posted the fastest growth in 2026YTD. CATL market shareincreased to 42% YTD (vs. 36% in 2025). In February, CATL sold 22.8GWh (+9% YoY,40.9% M/S). BYD remained second with 7.2GWh (-29% YoY, 13.0% M/S), followed byLGES at 6.8GWh (+6% YoY, 12.4% M/S). Panasonic declined to 4.0% M/S (2.2GWh, -16%YoY). Samsung SDI held to 1.7GWh (-18% YoY, 3.0% M/S). Alice Buckley+44 20 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com LFP market share declined to 41% this month (-2%-points YoY, -3%-points MoM).During the month, NMC made up58%of global xEV installations, up from56%last year,while LFP declined from43%to41%. In China, LFP held 66% (vs. 73% a year ago), and ex-China it held to 23% (vs. 14% last year), underscoring rapid global expansion of LFP. Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedTVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN estimate is AdjustedEPS; 2238.HK, NIO valuation is Revenues (M) CAGR; 1211.HK valuation is PEG Reported (x); LI valuation is EV/Sales (x); XPEV valuation is EPS ReportedCAGR; TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE, VOLCARB.SS, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.INvaluation is Adjusted P/E (x); 2333.HK, 2238.HK, 600104.CH, TVSL.IN, HMCL.IN, VOLCARB.SS, AML.LN, 247540.KS, 003670.KS, 7269.JP, 7203.JP,7267.JP, 7201.JP, 7261.JP, 7270.JP, 6201.JP, 6902.JP, 7259.JP base year is 2024;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS 2026 opened with softer-than-expected EV and battery demand. Global EV sales declined -12% y-o-y (-8% YTD, vs. ourFY forecast of +14%), while battery demand decreased by 4% (+1% YTD, vs. our +18% expectation). The key question onour minds is whether higher gasoline prices help to lift sales or whether a slowdown in the global economy makes thingsincrementally worse. In China which has the highest global sales penetration of any major market, EV demand dropped 25% y-o-y in 2M26 following subsidy re
