2月电动汽车追踪报告：电池电动汽车疲软之后，油价驱动复苏？

EV trackerFeb-26: final BEV weaknessahead of oildriven recovery? Industry Overview BEV sales fell -15% y/y in Feb26, penetration at 11.8%Global BEV sales declined‑15% y/y (-13% m/m; -8% YTD) in Feb‑26 to 713k units, as growth slowed in China and the US, while European sales growth remained resilient. InEurope, BEV sales grew +20% y/y (+19% YTD), supported by continued emissionregulation targets, subsidies, and tax breaks. However, sales in China and the USdeclined by‑40% y/y (-29% YTD) and‑33% y/y (-32% YTD), respectively, following areduction in subsidies in both regions. In China, seasonal effects from the Lunar NewYear, alongside reduced purchase tax incentives, contributed to the decline and a slightdrop in BEV penetration to 21.6%. In the US, the weakness is less apparent on asequential basis as we reach a new post subsidy run rate (-2%)PHEVsfollowed a similarpattern, with Europe up +36% y/y, contrasted by steep declines in the US (‑53%) andChina (‑41%). Looking ahead, we maintain our BEV sales forecasts (Exhibit 6) despiteweaker YTD BEV sales in China & the US. We think the Middle East conflict andassociated high fuel prices will drive BEV sales higher already as of Q2 26e. Accordingly,we still expect global BEV sales to grow by 11% y/y in FY26e, with penetration at 17.5%(YTD penetration at c.12% globally), which is still below S&P’s 19% penetration forecast.By OEM:Tesla recovers, Chinese OEMs look abroad Details by OEM (Exhibit 2& 3):(1)Tesla: models are back on top of leaderboardsacross regions. The company gained m/s in Feb as sales rebounded from a very low baseand entry‑level models ramp up globally. Also, Tesla already reported 1Q26 sales growthof +6.5% y/y, pointing to a continued recovery as new lower‑priced variants scale.(2)EU OEMs:On a YTD basis, STLA & VW delivered strong performance, with STLA gaining +170bps to 4.3% and VW +70bps to 7.5% m/s vs FY25. Globally, VW moved backahead of Geely to rank third in global m/s.(3) Chinese OEMs:BEV sales declined‑40%in Feb (YTD:‑29%) in China, leading to global m/s losses, notably at Xiaomi (‑200bps) &BYD (‑140bps). As a result, Chinese OEMs increased their focus on exports, whichaccounted for c.46% of BEV sales in February (c.41% YTD), driven by South America andthe EU. In Europe, Chinese OEM sales grew +7.9% m/m despite fewer selling days, ledby Leapmotor (+100%) & Xpeng (+24%).(4) Korean OEMs:Kia & Hyundai benefitedfrom Chinese OEM weakness, gaining +170bps and +160bps in m/s m/m, respectively.Other: more incentives, more demand, more competition 1)EUEV price rebates:incentives rose in Apr-26 vs 1Q26 (Exhibit 28). VW models sawthe biggest rise. With rising BEV demand due to high oil prices, we think that these pricerebates might drop again. But this shows that the competition in Europe is fierce asChinese OEMs enter the market.2) Raw material pricesfor BEV production are largelyunaffected from the Iran conflict for the moment. This further supports a BEV shift amidrising oil prices.3) Model launches:as the Beijing Auto Show approaches OEMs rampup model launches: BYD unveiled its 2ndgen battery with charging speeds matchingpetrol refuelling while VW plans to unveil 4 new“in China for China”models acrossdifferent segments. Competition is not slated to ease…which is a negative for pricing Most important BEV newsflow last month Exhibit1:Headlines that caught our eyes recentlySummary of the most relevant news flow on BEVs Used EV sales jump in Europe as Iran war drives up petrol prices• The war in Iran has disrupted global oil supplies. This surge has significantly boosted demand for used electric vehicles (EVs), with online platforms reporting a notable shift away from traditional combustion engines. In Norway, EVs have become the best-selling fuel type on Finn.no, surpassing diesel models. French retailer Aramisauto saw its EV sales nearly double duringthis period, with EVs and hybrids gaining popularity as petrol prices increase.Source: Reuters US States AbsorbGovernment EV Charging Funding Cuts• The US Department of Transportation revised National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) guidance in late 2025, seeking to ease permitting and accelerate fund deployment. This briefly boosted industry sentiment. However, the FY2026 appropriations law redirected more than $875 million from federal EV charging programs. Most of NEVI’s roughly $3.5 billion remainsavailable, but only about 13% had been obligated. This leaves a large share of funding exposed to future potential rescissions.Source: Bloomberg • BYD rolled out its second-gen Blade Battery and FLASH charging tech to tackle the issues with slow speeds and weak cold-weather charging in EVs.• The setup hits a new record: 10% to 70% charge in five minutes. It reaches 97% in nine minutes flat. At -30°C, a 20% to 97% charge adds just three minutes over room temp. BYD aims tobuild 20,000 FLASH stations in China. Big global push starts by late 2026.Source: BYD WebsiteBMW tolaunch series prod