中国智能手机追踪报告（2025年5月）：同比增长疲软，折扣驱动的升级

China Smartphone Tracker (May 2025): Lukewarm YoY growth &discount-driven trade-up Please download our smartphonemonthlytrackerdata from here Mark Li+85221232645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com "618 Shopping Festival" boosted the shipment in May but YTD sell-throughremained lukewarm. Total smartphone sell-through in China increased by 19% MoMand 1% YoY to 22M units. We believe the strong sequential growth was mainly due to thepurchases postponed from April to May in order to enjoy the discounts offered in "618Shopping Festival" In 5M25, the total smartphone sell-through was up 0.8% YoY only.Our recent checks suggested that China is mulling over further capital injection & possiblyanother round of stimulus but we wonder if it will create any sustainable demand increase. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+12135595917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alex Wang,CFA+85221232613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com after losing share for 10 consecutive quarters. We attribute that to the discounts on iPhone16 Pro offered by major e-commerce platforms, which additionally made it eligible forgovernment subsidies. That said, this may end after the festival ends. Eunice Lee, CFA+85221232606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com AleksanderPeterc+3315729 4525aleksander.peterc@bernsteinsg.com Trade-up tendency became more prominent likely due to discounts. May hadmeaningfulMoM&YoYsmartphoneASPincrease, likelythankstohigher iPhoneshipment& consumers overall traded up given the subsidies. Apple propelled a big jump in flagshipsegment &ub-flagship also grew due to non-Apple/Huawei brands. MediaTek continuedimproving its SoC shipment mix too. Yipin Cai, CFA+85221232669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com E Low inventory risk as sell-through caught up with sell-in. Thanks to the earlypromotions of "618 Shopping Festival", sell-through outpaced sell-in in May. Overall wedetect no notable inventory risk, esp. when the festival was only halfway through in May. Edward Hou, CFA+85221232623 Alrick Shaw+1917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com OLED penetration hovered c.8o% & foldable remained minor.OLED adoption by non-Apple/HuaweiOEMsedgedupto79%&stayedwiththeusualrange.Foldablepenetrationwas ~4% & still too small to move the needle. ArpadvonNemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com We rate MediaTek Outperform. We believe MediaTek will be winning more from Googledespitethe temporary delay of current TPU project.Besides,the company isgaining sharein higher-end segment. With a recent penetration into Honor, its flagship business canbuttress the blended ASP. Outperform (model, report). Shirley Yang, CFA+85221232660shirleyang@bernsteinsg.com Tariff risks are impacting hardware stocks in Apple supply chain. Although pull-in demand should drive financial growth in 1H25, sentiment around Luxshare (OP) andLargan (MP) is likely to remain cautious until late 2025 when attention shifts to the iPhone18 cycle & advancement in Al in 2026 (foldable phone note). For Android, while shipmentgrowth is slowing, we expect continued camera-spec upgrades in 2026 following theInvestor Day of Sunny Optical (OP). Ethan Xu+8522123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu+8522166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Xiaomi shipment rose 17% YoY & YTD sell-through up +17%. Xiaomi's market shareand premium product mix sustained strong performance. 22% of Xiaomi's shipmentis priced above RMB 4,000 in May, compared to 9% in May 2024 (Recent research:Decoding Xiaomi Ev's Success and YU7 SUV launch) Frankie Fong+852 2123 2637frankie.fong@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS MediaTek(OP,PTNT$1,700):WerateMediaTekOutperformwithPTNT$1,7O0. Novatek (MP, PT NT$480): We rate Novatek Market-Perform with PT NT$480. QcoM (OP, PT $185): Headwinds from a major handset and electronics manufacturer are likely approaching but are known,but the QcOM product portfolio is stronger than ever, option value exists, and the shares remain inexpensive. Luxshare (OP, PT RMB 47): We rate Luxshare Outperform with a RMB47 price target. Largan (MP, PT NT$ 2,400): We rate Larga Market-Perform with a NT$2400 price target.eSoitec (Outperform, PT 85). WeCate Soitec Outperform with a PT of 100. Soitec's near-term trends remain uncertain, asevidenced by its weak 1Q FY26Soutlook and the drop of FY revenue guidance, but RF-SOl (60% of revenue) should by now benearing a cyclical botto Xiaomi (Outperform, PT HKS60). We rate Xiaomi Outperform with PT HK$60. DETAILS Thistrackerismainlybasedonthesmartphonesell-throughdatathatCiNNOreportsforChinamarket.Wealsocomparethatwith May sell-through volume increased by 19% MoM mainly thanks to the "618 Shopping Festival" but 5M25 salesthus far remained lukewarm. We see the possibility of another around of consumption stimulus but wonder theeffect of that. : In May, the smartphone shipment in China grew by 19% MoM and 1% YoY to 22M units (Exhibit 1). We believe the strongsequential growth was mainly due to the purchases postponed from April to May in order to enjoy the