中国智能手机：激进的618折扣预示负面前景

-3.2ppt16 Pro vs 15 Pro -0.5ppt-1.2ppt16 PM vs 15 PM Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.comNick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.comJacky He * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.comMatt Ma * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com Company Valuation/RisksApple Inc.Our 12-month forward PT is based on DCF to FY31E using a WACC of 8.6% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% (implying 15x FY31E PE). Our PTimplies 24x FY25E PE, 6x FY25E PB and 2.0x FY25E PEG. Key upside risks: 1) strong reception to Apple Intelligence in 2025, leading to strongerdemand for iPhone 16/17, 2) stronger economic outlook for both the US and China, 3) step-up of gov subsidies in China that have no ASP limits,and 4) strong reception for iPhone 17 Air leading to higher expectations of the foldable roadmap. Downside risks are: 1) China/India tariffs risefurther on retaliation and no compromise, 2) iPhone and other product sales suffer bigger decline due to a deeper global recession, and 3) thecompany is forced to reduce its 30% share of app revenue and open up its iOS ecosystem for antitrust reasons.Xiaomi CorporationOur price target of HK$69.50 is based on SOTP with non-EV business valued at 25x 2026E P/E and EV at 2.5x 2026E P/S. Key risks include: 1)Smartphone/IoT market share loss; 2) Rising raw material costs; 3) Fiercer pricing competition in EV market impacts sales; 4) Delay of new modellaunches; and 5) Escalating geopolitical risk affects overseas business.Analyst Certification:I, Edison Lee, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Nick Cheng, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Jacky He, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Matt Ma, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Edison Lee, CFA is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore maynot be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held bya research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Nick Cheng is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Jacky He is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Matt Ma is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified asa research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of