电动汽车追踪报告 - 2026年3月：汽油价格点燃买家兴趣，电动汽车销售春季复苏

EV TRACKER - March 2026: Spring recovery in EV sales asgasoline price ignites buyer interest March 26 global passenger xEV (BEV + PHEV) sales reached 1.73M which was 3%YoY and 67% MoM growth.For March, China accounted for 49% of global xEV salesfollowed by Europe at 31% and N. America at 7%. Readers can download the EV trackerdata set here:Link. We forecast 14% EV sales growth in 2026 which will take global xEVpenetration to c. 32% for 2026 (vs. 28% in 2025). Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com China EV sales improved, but growth remains negative following the cut in subsidies(-14% YoY for 3M26), while the U.S. continued to decline (-29% YoY) followingremoval of CVC incentives.EV sales inChinawere 855K units (-14% YoY) in March (vs.12.9M units in 2025). In contrast, Europe and the RoW recorded strong growth.EuropeanEV salesremained solid at 530K units (+35% YoY).RoWgrew by81% YoYto 232K unitswith sames now double North America.N. Americasaw a decline in demand with EV salesof 116K units (-29% YoY, vs. -5% in 2025). Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Globally, BEV sales are growing more quickly than PHEV which is helping to supportbattery demand.BEV sales increased 7% YoY to 1.22M units while PHEV sales declined-5% YoY to 511k units. BEV sales accounted for 67% of China xEV sales, 68% for Europe,85% for N. America and 81% for RoW. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Among the OEMs, BYD, Tesla and Geely continued to lead sales, although BYDposted a YoY sales decline.In March, BYD (based on SNE data) led the market with 246Ksold (-22% YoY) followed by Tesla with 174K units (+7% YoY), Geely with 72K units (-19%YoY), CHANGAN with 68K units (10.3% YoY), and WULING with 52K units (-33% YoY).For European brands, BMW was strongest with 47K units (-6% YoY), VW sold 46K units(0%YoY), Mercedes 33K units (-1%YoY), and AUDI 32K units (27%YoY). Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Battery demand continues to outstrip EV demand as OEMS opt for larger sizebatteries and BEV’s over hybrids.Li-ion battery demand for passenger EVs increased10% YoY to 93GWh this month which was better than xEV sales. Battery sales in Chinawere 42.7GWh (-7% YoY vs. EV sales -14% YoY), Europe was 28.7GWh (+24% YoY), N.America was 9.0GWh (-25% YoY). Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Alice Buckley+44 20 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT, CATL and CALB posted the fastest growth in 2026YTD with CATL marketshare increasing to 40% YTD (vs. 36% in 2025). In March, CATL sold 35.3GWh (+15%YoY, 39.9% M/S). BYD remained second with 13.7GWh (-8% YoY, 14.4% M/S), followedby LGES at 11.7GWh (+17% YoY, 11.1% M/S). Panasonic kept 4.3% M/S (3.3GWh, -5.4%YoY). Samsung SDI held to 2.0GWh (-25% YoY, 2.4% M/S). Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com LFP market share increased to 46% this month (2%-points YoY, 5%-points MoM)but there are signs that LFP may be reaching peak penetration in China.During themonth, NMC made up54%of global xEV installations, fractionally down from55%lastyear, while LFP increased from44%to46%. In China, LFP shows signs of peaking out withmarket share of 72% (vs. 73% a year ago). Ex-China LPF reached 23% (vs. 14% last year),indicating continued rapid global expansion of LFP. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Param Shah+91 226 842 1417param.shah@bernsteinsg.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedTVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN estimate is AdjustedEPS; 175.HK, 2333.HK, 1810.HK valuation is EV/Sales (x); TVSL.IN, BJAUT.IN, HMCL.IN, MM.IN, VOW3.GR, RNO.FP, BMW.GR, MBG.GR, P911.GR, RACE,VOLCARB.SS, STLAP.FP, STLA, AML.LN, MSIL.IN valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); TVSL.IN, HMCL.IN, 003670.KS, 7269.JP, 7203.JP, 7267.JP, 7201.JP,7261.JP, 7270.JP, 6201.JP, 6902.JP, 7259.JP base year is 2024; MM.IN, MSIL.IN base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS 2026 has opened with softer-than-expected EV and battery demand. But while growth was negative in January and February,March has seen a turnaround and a resumption to positive growth with global EV sales increasing 3% y-o-y (-3% YTD, vs. ourFY forecast of +14%), while battery demand increased by 10% (+5% YTD, vs. our +18% expectation). Over the coming monthswe expect growth to accelerate as higher gasoline prices prompt more and more consumers to buy an electric vehicle. In China,which has the highest global sales penetrati