电动汽车追踪报告：2025年10月：年底电动汽车销售增长停滞

EV TRACKER - October 2025: EV sales growth stalls into year end October’25 global passenger xEV (BEV + PHEV) sales reached 1.92M (+9% YoY,-8% MoM). 2025YTD xEV sales grew by 24% YoY to 16.4M units.For October, Chinaaccounted for 66% of global xEV sales followed by Europe at 19% and N. America at 6%.Readers can download the EV tracker data set here: Model: Monthly EV Tracker. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Sales growth of EVs in China slowed to +2% YoY, while the U.S. saw a sharp -30%YoY decline following the removal of CVC incentives.In contrast, Europe and the RoWrecorded strong growth. EV sales inChinawere 1,276K units (+2% YoY) in October and10.2M units YTD (+22% YoY).European EV salesremained solid at 370K units (+37%YoY, +33% YTD).N. Americasaw a decline in demand with EV sales of 110K units (-30%YoY, +5% YTD).RoWgrew by80% YoYto 166K units. Stephen Reitman+44 20 7762 5535stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com Venugopal Garre+65 6326 7643venugopal.garre@bernsteinsg.com Outside of China the YoY growth rate of PHEV sales (35%) exceeded BEV (21%),but BEV demand remained stronger in China (19% vs. -17%).PHEV sales declined by8% y-o-y to 645K units in October’25 (+13% 25YTD, +53% in 2024) while BEVs grew by+19% to 1,277K units (+31% 25YTD, +14% in 2024). BEV sales accounted for 63% ofChina xEV sales, 67% for Europe, 80% for North America and 82% for RoW in this month. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Harry Martin, CFA+44 20 7676 8965harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com Among the OEMs, BYD, Geely and Tesla continued to lead sales, although bothBYD and Tesla posted a YoY sales decline.In October, BYD (SNE data) sold the mostmonthly units with 315K (-34% YoY, flat YTD). Geely was second at 124K units (+81% YoY),followed by Shanghai GM Wuling with 111K units (+32% YoY). Tesla sold 90K units (-27%YoY, -8% YTD) including 57K of Model Y and 29K of Model 3. For European brands, VWwas strongest with 43K units (+47% YoY), BMW sold 42K units (+3%), Mercedes 29K units Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFA+44 20 7676 7254steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Li-ion battery demand for passenger EVs increased 15% YoY to 94GWh in Octoberwhich was higher than xEV sales.Battery sales in China were 57.0GWh (+13% YoY),Europe were 19.5GWh (+33% YoY), N. America were 8.5GWh (-27% YoY).2025YTDbattery demand was up +28% YoY at 814GWh. Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com SVOLT, Gotion and CALB posted the fastest growth YTD. CATL market shareremained at 36% in 2025YTD. For October, CATL xEV sales were 35.0GWh (+18%YoY) (37.4% M/S) with YTD sales growth of 28%. BYD with sales of 17.1GWh (+5% YoY)(18.2% M/S) remained in second place, followed by LGES with battery sales of 6.4GWh(-7% YoY) (7.1% M/S) with sales YTD+13%. Panasonic (not covered) M/S was 3.3%(3.1GWh, -2% YoY), while Samsung SDI sales increased to 2.1GWh (+5% YoY, 2.2% M/S) Gali Salvatorelli Naraghi+44 20 7676 6741gali.salvatorelli-naraghi@bernsteinsg.com Alice Buckley+44 20 7676 6739alice.buckley@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com LFP market share continues to increase and reached 51% in October (+6%-pointsYoY, +4%-points MoM).During the month, NMC batteries accounted for49%of globalxEV installations (on MWh basis) compared to54%over the same period last year. LFPrepresented51%of global xEV installations compared to45%over the same period lastyear. LFP accounted for 72% of China’s xEV battery installations (vs. 66% in October’24) Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS EV growth has slowed sharply coming into year-end. xEV sales growth in October slowed to 9% y-o-y which was not onlya decline month on month, but also the weakest pace of growth since February 2024. Part of the reason is that China salesgrowth has cooled following a blistering pace set in 1H25, while the U.S. experienced a sharp -30% y-o-y decline following theremoval of CVC incentives. Despite this, growth for 10M25 was still 24% y-o-y which remains at the top end of our expected20-25% growth estimate for the year. Among the stronger performing regions in October were Europe and RoW where saleswere particularly strong at above 35%, offsetting slower China demand growth of 2%. China’s EV sales, unexpectedly, did notexperience any pull-forward in demand effect despite the removal of subsidies at the end of this year. Outside of China, the Energy storage:Although China growth will likely be slower in 2025 given the high sales penetration, we now expect overallbattery demand growth to be at 45% driven by better-than-expected ESS demand (EV battery demand growth to be 25%). Within the sector, CATL (Outperform, CNY440) is the most attractive stock with leading margins and returns. We also rateTianqi Outperform (HKD41 for H-share and CNY44 for