全球奢侈品行业：珠宝品类的内生增长溢价 ——2025年三季度同店销售（LFL）品牌八大品类价格追踪报告

Global Luxury Goods: Jewellery's organic growth premium - The9M25 LFL Brand & Category Price Tracker Brand- and category-level LFL price increases help explain diverging organic growth in theluxury industry, particularly in the lead up to 4Q25’s tough comparative base. Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.com The luxury industry has spent the past two years atoning for aggressive post-pandemic price increases.Most soft luxury brands have kept 2024/2025 price increasesin the LSD region, in contrast to the MSD to DD price increases implemented between 2020 Maria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.com Post-pandemic price increases reflect differences in brand health.Aggressivepandemic-era price takers faced with strong consumer backlash (e.g. Dior and Chanel) haveheld off on almost any price increases. Brands in weak market positions (e.g. Saint Laurentand Burberry) have reversed some of their price increases in 2024. On the other hand,brands in a relative sweet spot (Bottega Veneta in ‘quiet luxury’) or more resilient brands Eric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Most brands had deployed <1% LFL price increases in 1H25.This marks acontinuation of negative real pricing, as the industry tackles post-pandemic concernsaround ‘value for money’ (see Global Luxury Goods: The Value for Money Question).Regional price increases have likewise been muted and insufficient to fully reflate regional Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com 9M25 price increases remain <2% despite tariff-related adjustments.Most brandsimplemented 2-4% price increases in the USA in 2Q25, sufficient to offset a 15% tariff (see LVMH: Louis Vuitton raises US handbag prices in response to US tariffs). Given that the USArepresents 20-25% of global revenues for most brands, this translates into a <1% boost toglobal LFL price increases. Hermès remains a positive outlier among soft luxury brands with Despite recent price increases, jewellery’s perceived value remains high.Weestimate that Richemont’s Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels enter calendar 4Q25 with a >5% LFL pricing tailwind. Cumulative price increases over the past 2-3 years remain largelyin-line with that of soft luxury peers (excluding Cartier in China), despite significant priceincreases in 2024 and 2025. This suggests that the perceived value of jewellery vs. soft Jewellery’s growth premium will taper, but is unlikely to reverse abruptly.Brandmomentum at Richemont remains strong, while LFL pricing offers a backstop to abruptmean reversion. Moreover, Richemont can adjust prices to ‘fair’ levels through price cuts (asobserved in 4Q24), and continues to innovate to enhance perceived value for money (e.g.the transformable Love Unlimited or the reversible Alhambra ring). In this context, currentorganic growth estimates incorporate a significant margin of safety - we forecast a +11.5% INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS In the absence of clarity on luxury goods demand,investors seem to have taken the approach of favoring catalyst-richidiosyncratic self-help stories (Kering, Burberry, and perhaps even LVMH) over the relatively predictable quality names (Hermès, But a volatile stock market and declining cryptocurrency prices have injected further uncertainty around 4Q25e.Falling asset prices risks and a negative wealth effect risks deflating spending growth from the most well-off Americanconsumers, who have been the main driver of stronger than expected luxury demand in 9M25. This adds to existing concerns of The predictable quality names of the sector remain underappreciated.Richemont and Hermès are clear outliers in thescale of LFL pricing they have been able to deploy in FY25, while volumes are also likely supported by higher supply. This servesas a backstop to growth in their respective key Jewellery Maisons and Leather Goods divisions. Admittedly, concerns aroundHermès ability to stretch its waiting list through this prolonged luxury downturn linger. However, experience suggests that We think Richemont deserves more investor attention.In the near-term, category and brand momentum remain clearly inRichemont’s favor, while management guidance post-FY1H26e has helped square the moving parts to margins for FY26. In thelong-term, Richemont is K-shaped recoveryready, succession ready, capital allocation atoned, and dominant in hard luxury. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The partner for this research is Data Boutique, a marketplace for web data. Data Boutique enables users to safely buy and sell high-quality web-scraped data for fast and safe access to global productprices and discounts in global e-commerce. DETAILS A note on the data: We present equal-weighted sequential LFL price changes calculated by Databoutique. LFL growth reflects allprice changes across all SKUs in each brand and category. As a result, LFL price changes do not reflect the price change of the This cou