内存追踪（5月）：2026年第二季度环比价格上涨约60%，但2026年下半年可能放缓

MEM0RY TRACKER (May): Price hike c. 60% QoQ in 2QCY26, butlikely at a slower pace in 2HCY26 byTrendForce/DRAMeXchange&comparesthatwithourmodel&investorexpectation. +85221232645mark.li@bernsteinsg.con conventionalDRAMcontractpricein2QCY26. +1 212 845 7822nan@bernsteinsg.co appearedtobelimited and was quickly digested.PC DRAM spot price rebounded by5-7.4% MoM while server DRAM was up 1.6-3.1% MoM. +85221232623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com contract price was 64% higher vs.1QCY26, with 46%for PC, 53% for Server,~80% forMobile &~85%for Consumer.PCdemand appeared tobe more resilientthan expected andshortage continued, as vendors tried to increase supply for server.That said,price increaseis still expected todecelerate into3QCY26.Memory suppliers havemostly concludedLTAnegotiationswithUSCSPs.DiscussionwithChineseCSPs andconsumer segmentcustomers likely was still ongoing. +85221232669yipin.cal@bernsteinsg.com +1917344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com +19173448481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com NAND: Wafer contract price increase further narrowed,but the overall NAND priceincreasewill besupportedbySSDandmobileNANDin2QCY26 Spot price: Similar to DRAM spot price, NAND wafer spot price also stabilized (+O.2%MoM) in May,aftera notable drop in Apr. Contractprice:Wafer contractprice was uponly1-2%MoMas module housesturned1QCY26,thanksto c.70-80%price increase inMobileNAND&SSD,&c.25% increaseforwafer.Goingforward,asconsumerdemandsoftens,NANDpricehikeisalsoexpectedtocontinuebut narrow into3QCY26. Insummary,bothDRAM&NANDcontractprices rosemildlyMoMand still indicatedamajorpriceincreasefor2QcY26.Serverdemandcontinuedtoabsorb incrementalsupply allocatedby suppliers,while demand destruction in consumer segment hasbeenmore limited than feared. Spot price also appeared to be stabilizing. Nevertheless, we stillbelievedemanddestruction in consumer segment will eventually happen &price increaseshould decelerate notably into 3QCY26. The focus now increasingly shifts to LTAs, whicharebeingnegotiatedwithmorecustomers.DependingonthescopeoftheagreementsLTAs maymitigate the impact of a correction.We model memory prices to gradually peak&begin tonormalizefrom2HCY27and intoCY28.SeeGlobal Memory:Price increasemorethanexpected in2QCY26andSandiskFQ3'26:Nosebleed ASPs (nowlockedin); Raise estimates and TPto S1700, Reiterate Outperform (top ST pick)for details. SamsungElectronics:WerateSamsungElectronics OutperformwithpricetargetofKRW225,000.SKhynix:WerateSKhynixOutperformwithpricetargetofKRW1,150,000.Micron:WerateMicronOutperformwithpricetargetofUS$510.00KIOXIA:We rateKIOXIAUnderperform withpricetargetof JPY17,000.SanDisk:WerateSNDKOutperform withapricetarget of$1,700.00 theMay2026contractpricesforDRAM&NANDcoveringdifferentapplications(datasetcanbedownloadedatMemoryPriceTracker).Weselectmainstreamproductsfromeachsegment,applydifferent weightsonthemtoderivean industryaveragepricechange.SSD&HBMarenot inthesamplesbutwill beadditionally consideredsothatwecan compare theoverallASPwithourprojection.Spotpriceisnoisybutwe alsosummarize some spotpricedata as it can bea leading indicatorofcontract price.Pleasefeel freetofind ourmostrecentmarketreviewanddownloadourindustryandcompanymodels fromthe linksbelow.CoWoS/HBMModel ·DRAM IndustryModel.NANDIndustryModel.SamsungElectronicsModel. SKhynix Model.MicronModel·KIOXIAModelSanDiskModel With demand staying solid,May contract price rosefurther from Apr and suggested in 2QCY26 conventional DRAMAsPwill be 64% above 1QCY26.This is stronger than our current projection. Spot price: PCDRAM:PC DRAMchip spotprice generally recovered in May,upby5% and7.4% MoMforDDR4and DDR5,respectively (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6). Some distributors had sold some inventory earlier, and thatcaused spotpriceto correct somehow.Howeverit appearedthatthe supplyreleasedfromthis was digestedand spotprice hence stablized &recovered slightly in May. Server DRAM: Server DRAM module spot price was up slightly MoM by 1.6-3.1% MoM (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 11, Exhibit 12)Similarly, serverDRAM module spot prices had seen some drop previouslybut recently they have stabilized.Overallitmaybe difficultforspotprices to jumpnotablyhigherfromhere,buttheyremained considerablyabove contractpricesdon't think spot prices will fall off a cliff any time soon. Contractprice: Average:Overall,takinga weightedaverage ofmultiple samples, we find contracts set in Mayindicated conventionalweighted average contract price increase here may notmatch the increase reported in company earningsreleases butdoes serve as an important indication for where the market is heading. Pc DRAM:Contractprice in May was slightly upMoM,andwas,46% above contractprices in1QCY26 (Exhibit 1,Exhibit3, Exhibit 7).Bythe end of May,most PC OEMs had finished price negotiation for 2QCY26 and overall DRAM moduleprices increased marginally over Apr.Demand stayedmore resilientthan expected,and good demand for MacBook Neowas one of thereasons.DRAM chip contractprices al