全球奢侈品：手袋价格与产品结构晴雨表 - 追踪2025年下半年的变化并为2026年设定基准

Global Luxury Goods: The Handbag Price & Mix BarometerTracking2H25's changesand settingabaselinefor2026 New coffecfions desigvied by rew creative directors af Gucci a/id Dicr are sef to debut ir?set s bsseline for 2026 ano to help sssess these sntic(oated chsnges, we tske s snaoshot of6ecf brs/no's producf ercintectuwre st the end of 2025. Luca Solca+41582 723 123uca.solcabcmstcinsg.ccm Maria Meitamaris.meta@ivernsteinsg.com Product price/mix adjustments in 2026 could help address soft luxury's challenges.A number of converging factors coelesced to wrong foot softluxury mega-brands lilkeGucci, Dior, and Chanel in 2O25 [see The Lpng View: Global Luxury Goods - The rnega-brand paradign crisis, To address these issues, luxury brands will need to re-engage vithentry price custorners. Igniting brand desirabilty with new creative leadership alone isinsufficient: luxury orands also need to hsve the right product mix. Y-Ferg Kroo, CFA+44 20 7976 6322 Eric Chan, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.thengbemsteirsg.com We update our weekly handbag price and mix barometer, with data for five brandsacross slx countrles, We focus on Burberry, Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton and Dior, andcollect weekly pricing data (starting from 07-Aug-25) for handlbags listec on eachbeand.conin France, China, Jnaan, the UK, the USA, and the UAE, Note that we also colleetsimilar data for Chanel and cuterwear data for Moncler, albeit frorn a later starting point, butdo rnot present the dala in this report. Specialist Sales Alix Turner144 20 7782 4064 Burberry's handbags remain the most accessibly priced. Dior's handbags are pricedand incluce sn snalysis on the Interqusrtile rsnge of each brsnd to ald compsrabllty.Burberry's interquartile range lies wholy below the 2k price-point; Gucci's medien isjust eibove 2k; Preda end Louis Vuitton's core product mix are surprisingly similar indistribution with a 2k to 3k interquartile range and 2.9k median; Dior is a step abovewith a 2.5k to 4k interquartile range. We vould not read too deeply into mininum andrnaxinum price points: some brarids include wallets and srrall clutches under 'handbagswhile not all high-end products are listed on each brand.corr. We estimate that >60% of Burberry, Gucci and Dior's current handbag SKUs are*newf, 40%s of their SKUs tracked in Aug’25 have remsined consistently listed over thefivemonth period to enc-Dec. Burberry has been e.ctively re-adjusting tihe lower-end of itsmix; Gucci the upper-end. In contrest, >50% of SKUs listed on Precla and Louis Vuitton'swebsites heve been left unchanged, beyond lete-No's LFL price increasns at Prada (<50%are 'new': reflecting relative creative stability at the twa brands. We expect more churn in 1H26: EBurberry is expected to tweak its product mix furtheras its “Burberry Forvard'stralegy matures. Creative debuts at Gucci and Dior shouldaccelerate product mix changes (for an eerly example. see the'Dior Bow'l, ideally at thebottom-end of each brancs price renges. Wihether this vill catalyze tumover at Preda andLouis Vuiton remeins to be seen: Louis Vuitton has sterted to build momentum aroundthe centenary of its 'LV monogram, Monogram Anniversary has quickly repleced festivehighlights cn brand.com - Prada tco will nccd to fight harder for its share cfthe spotlight,potentially aided by its accessible nylan products. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Our base case scenario for FY26E anticipates a gradual recovery of global luxury demand vith steacy currency growth around5%. This &ssumes a slow U-shaped revival in China despite frsgile economic concitionsl, pricing architecture adjustmentand product newness refreshes from the luxury brands, and a continuetion of resilient performance at the high end drivenby buoyant demanc at the top. Given these premises, we would therefore structure cur porfolio according to the following 1) We would anticipate a quantun of intra-scctor rotation away fron self-help and into high quality nanes like Hermes,Richemont, and LVMH, especially if positive surprises contirnue into FY26E. 2) Wilhin highi-cualily, Richermant is our lop preference due to strang jewelery momenlum and leadership, with Hermes anidBrunello Cucinelli also favored for their quality and potential mean reversior. strength, with potentisl for long-only inficws if growth surprises continue in 4Q25E 4) Witihin self-help/high-beta stocks brancl momentum should be the centre of fccus, instead of the tempte.tion of meanreversion. Short Kering / Long Preca soems a reasonable stance gcing into FY26E, while monitoring Gucci's potentialperformance and Versiace’s strategic cornmunication as possible catalysts. Burberry is our preferred self-hrelp stary, due to acprnbination of tailwinds frorn consurner trading down, and a eonvincing turnarcund plan that have yielded early encouragingresults. DETAILS EXHI 3/T 1: Product mix adjustments are required to convert brand recognition and traffic into revenues andshareholder returns, We provi