全球自动化：旁观者视角下的周期（2025年下半年）

Global Automation: The cycle in the eyes of the beholders We assess the progression of the global factory automation (FA) cycle by analyzing thelatest results and comments of a wide range of automation companies worldwide. This Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Global cycle:Exhibit 4 characterizes the current cycle — compared to 1Q2025 (see here),more companies saw demand recovery in 3Q2025, and the global FA cycle continues totrend upwards, but this initial phase of recovery is weaker than in previous cycles. Except inChina, automation demand from the automotive industry remains weak due to postponedCAPEX projects caused by the U.S. tariff disruption. The electronic industry meaningfullyimproved, partly thanks to AI-related demands. The overall recovery is broad-based Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com China:Global FA companies’ comments regarding China have become much more positive(Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7) compared to 1Q2025. China’s FA cycle leads the global cycle byabout two quarters, and it has seen little impact on CAPEX from tariffs (Exhibit 12). Therecovery in China is also broad-based (Exhibit 9) and not limited to the strong investmentin battery for EV and energy storage (Exhibit 10). Investment in solar remains weak andcontinues to bounce at the bottom (Exhibit 11). Given the typical length (2-2.5 years) of Tariffs: In 3Q2025, the U.S. tariff impact on the automotive segment outside China hasled to broad and significant delays in CAPEX projects. With such uncertainties arising fromtariffs and geopolitical tensions, FA companies tend to provide cautious outlooks despiteimproved demand. Price pass-through was adopted by most companies (Exhibit 12) as anear-term countermeasure to tariffs. And the appetite for a “local for local” strategy hasclearly increased and become more comprehensive to include not just manufacturing Except for Chinese stocks, FA companies have not priced in the demand recovery to date.We expect the upcoming acceleration of the upcycle will be catalysts to stocks in the sector. DETAILS INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Reiterate Outperform for Keyence, SMC, FANUC, Inovance, AirTAC, Cognex, and IPG Photonics; Market-Perform for Estun. In light of the results, we have updated our forecasts for Harmonic Drive (model). Please see updated financial summary (Exhibit13). For Harmonic Drive, we reiterate Outperform rating and maintain PT JPY 5,000, by applying a 29.0x EV/EBITDA multipleto 1-yr fwd EBITDA est. of JPY 16.2bn (was 30.0x to JPY 15.8bn). Compared to the previous forecast, we slightly increased EXHIBIT 11:Trends of demands from solar industry forindustrial automation in China. Note: We use shipment volume to calculate % of demand from solar industry forindustrial robot, and sales value for AC servo and VFD. Note: We use shipment volume to calculate % of demand from battery industryfor industrial robot, and sales value for AC servo and VFD. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社). On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Marke