周末消费热潮：日本， revenue management的梦想

Alexia Howard+1917344 8453 alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.comAneesha Sherman+19173448457 aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.comCallum Elliott,CFA,ACA+442076767183 callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.comDanilo Gargiulo+1 9173448475 danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.comJignanshu Gor +912268421494 jignanshu.gor@bernsteinsg.comLuca Solca+41582723126 luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comNadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 76766849 nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.comRichardJ.Clarke,FCA+4420 7676 6850 richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.comTrevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521 trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.comWilliam Woods+4420 7676 6806 william.woods@bernsteinsg.comYugoShima+81367776994 yugo.shima@bernsteinsg.comZhihan Ma, CFA+19173448303 zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Japan is adreamfor revenuemanagers. benefitfromatailwindofc.30%fasterconsumptionexpendituregrowth compared to the rest of the country. Prefectures like their children -loving each one equally -thosewilling to discriminate can effectively compete in a market the samesize as South Koreabyfocusing on just sixprefectures. EXHIBIT 2: The number of households in Tokyo is growingat a1.5% CAGR,followed by the Six Starsprefectures at1.3%, more than double the 0.6% rate for the remaining 41Prefectures a narrow band stretching from Tokyo in the East to Fukuoka in theWest and, while the rest of the country is stunningly beautiful, it issparsely populated, aging fast and economic activity is dwindling. Acrossthisconcentratedband,sixPrefecturesstandout.GreaterTokyo, Chiba (just across the Edo River) and Kanagawa (ofYokohamafame)formacompellingEasternclusterof37mnconsumers.Osaka's scale in the centerof Japan is a stone's throwfrom Aichi (famed for Nagoya city,Ninja culture and Toyota) with acombined 16mnpopulation,and Fukuoka balances out the ellipsecloseto Japan's Western tip. Togetherthese Prefectures account for 44% of Japan's workingage population andtheyform thekey engine of Japan's Consumereconomy. economy EXHIBIT 4: Incomes in these six stars are also significantlyoutperforming,growing at a 2.8%CAGR from 2019-2024compared to the rest at 1.3% and, unsurprisingly, Tokyostands out with 3.1% Income growth The number ofhouseholds in these six stars Prefectures is growingata 1.3% 2019-24 CAGR,more than double the 0.6%rate fortheremaining41Prefectures. Incomes in these six stars are also significantlyoutperforminggrowing at a 2.8%CAGRfrom2019-2024 compared to the restat 1.3% and, unsurprisingly, Tokyo stands out with 3.1% Incomegrowth. When itcomesto consuming,however,Chiba reallystands outwithits 5.1% CAGR materially outstripping Tokyo's 3.2%, the six stars at2.7% and the rest of the countryat only 1.6%. a 5.1% CAGR materially outstripping Tokyo's 3.2%, the sixstars at 2.7% and the rest of the country at only 1.6% travel times into Tokyo from Narita airport - Chiba has a much morerelaxed vibe than Tokyo.The Prefecture is drawing a younger crowdofinhabitants whooften commuteinto Tokyo,and is alsobenefitingfrom inbound tourism with visitors hitting Disneyland, and thestunning hiking trails. People in Chiba love drinking, and eating, with total expenditureon non-alcoholic beverages growing almost 4xfaster than the sixstars average, at a 10.4% CAGR since 2019.Similarly, spend onalcoholicbeveragehasbeengrowing1.9xfaster,ata 4.3%CAGR,and food spend has been growing 30%faster at a 5.1% CAGR. EXHIBIT7:Expenditureoneating out inTokyohas beengrowing at an 11%CAGR, compared to the six stars averageat a still impressive 7.7% and the remaining 41prefecturesat -0.2% OutsideChiba,consumerspendingonF&Bhasbeengrowingbroadly in line with CPl, however. When it comes to eating out, Tokyo is where it's at! Expenditureon eatingout in Tokyohas beengrowingat an11%CAGR, compared to the six stars average ata stillimpressive7.7%and the remaining 41 prefectures at -0.2%. Presumably,this dynamic growth has been aided by tourism,andpartially reflects thedogged devotion offoreign tourists totrudgingon and off the Shinkansen along the Golden Route from Tokyo, viaMt Fuji / Hakone, Nagoya, and Kyoto,to Osaka. cosmetics and personal care expendituregrowth in the capitalmight reasonably be expectedto outperformtoo.But while the5.1%CAGRis respectablecomparedtothe4.4%nationalaverage,it is again the Chibapeoplewhoarefocusingon appearances withspend in the prefecture growing ata whopping 7.1% CAGR since2019. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between BernsteinandSocieteGénérale otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. Please visit:https://bernste