日本的芯片热潮在刺激经济

bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-21/japan-s-chip-spree-aims-to-kick-economy-into-high-gear By Yoshiaki Nohara作者：野原义明2024年2月21日at GMT+8 11:302024年2月21日GMT+811:30BookmarkSaveListen5:32 Rapidus Corp.’s factory construction site inChitose, Hokkaido, in December 2023. Photographer: Soichiro Koriyama/Bloomberg2023年12月，Rapidus Corp.位于北海道千岁市的工厂建设工地。摄影师：SoichiroKoriyama/Bloomberg Economics Japan’s Chip Spree Aims to Kick Economy Into HighGear 日本芯片热潮旨在推动经济高速发展 Kishida hopes new semiconductor plants will raisewages in regions and stop exodus of people to big cities.岸田希望新的半导体工厂能够提高各地区的工资，并阻止人们流向大城市。 Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ambitious￥4trillion ($27 billion) spending spree to revive thenation’s semiconductor industry also aims to help re-orient the economy back to a positive growth cyclesought by the government and central bank. 日本首相岸田文雄雄心勃勃地斥资4万亿日元（合270亿美元）振兴国家半导体行业，也旨在帮助经济重新回到政府和央行所寻求的正增长周期。 Already there’s anecdotal evidence emerging from thenorthern island of Hokkaido and from Kumamoto in thesouth that the new chip projects are starting to impactthe local economies and stem the tide of people flockingto Tokyo for better jobs and schooling. 北部的北海道岛和南部的熊本已经有传闻表明，新的芯片项目正在开始影响当地经济，并阻止人们涌向东京寻求更好的工作和教育。 Yuto Oikawa, a realtor in Chitose, Hokkaido, can’t keepup with calls as the city transforms from a backwater toone of the nation’s hottest real estate markets thanks tothe construction of a￥2 trillion semiconductor foundrysubsidized by Kishida’s chip plan. 北海道千岁市的房地产经纪人Yuto Oikawa无法接听电 话，因为在岸田芯片计划的资助下建设了一座价值2万亿美元的半导体代工厂，这座城市从一潭死水变成了全国最热门的房地产市场之一。 “We are completely short-handed,” said Oikawa, 32. “It’sblown me away.” “我们完全人手不足，”32岁的及川说，“这让我大吃一惊。” Chitose, previously seen as a backwater in thefrozen north, became one of the hottest realestate markets in Japan.Photographer: SoichiroKoriyama/Bloomberg 千岁曾被视为冰冻北方的一潭死水，现在却成为日本最热门的房地产市场之一。摄影：SoichiroKoriyama/Bloomberg The foundry is part of government-backed RapidusCorp.’s plan to make a giant leap in chip technology andreestablish Japan at the forefront of semiconductorexpertise. 该代工厂是政府支持的Rapidus公司计划的一部分，该计划旨在实现芯片技术的巨大飞跃，并重新确立日本在半导体专业技术前沿的地位。 Read More: Japan Bets $67 Billion to Become a GlobalChip Powerhouse Once Again 阅读更多：日本押注670亿美元再次成为全球芯片强国 Kishida calls chips “a driving force” to help lead Japanout of its deflationary malaise of sluggish growth onceand for all. A boost to wages is seen as critical to theBank of Japan scrapping its negative interest rate, as iswidely expected in March or April, and to furtherincreases after that. 岸田称芯片为“一股驱动力”，有助于带领日本一劳永逸地摆脱经济增长低迷的通货紧缩困境。正如人们普遍预期的那样，工资上涨对于日本央行在3月或4月取消负利率以及此后进一步加息至关重要。 “I hope the chip industry will take a lead on pay hikes inregional economies,” Kishida said in a video message ata chip expo in December. “The Japanese governmentwill continue to give its full support to investment in themass production of chips in our country.” “我希望芯片行业能够带头推动地区经济的薪资上涨，”岸田在去年12月的一次芯片博览会上的视频信息中表示。 “日本政府将继续全力支持我国芯片量产投资。” The hope is that the latest chip strategy will help fill aneconomic void left by the legions of companies thatshifted production abroad when the yen was aroundtwice its current strength more than a decade ago. Thathollowing out of industry drained communities ofspending power and employment opportunities,prompting many young people to leave. 人们希望，最新的芯片战略将有助于填补十多年前日元汇率约为当前汇率两倍左右时，大批公司将生产转移到海外所留下的经济空白。工业空心化耗尽了社区的消费能力和就业机会，促使许多年轻人离开。 Yet success isn’t guaranteed. The 2012 bankruptcy ofElpida Memory, a government-backed maker of DRAMmemory chips, shows that an initial interventionist handfrom the public sector can still end in failure. 但成功并不能保证。2012年政府支持的DRAM内存芯片制造商Elpida Memory的破产表明，公共部门最初的干预仍然可能以失败告终。 In aging Japan, rural areas keep losing youngpeople to big cities Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs andCommunications资料来源：总务省 Hideo Kumano, executive economist at Dai-Ichi LifeResearch Institute, warns that the globalcompetitiveness of the chip industry means the lateststrategy is far from certain of success. “These subsidiesare massive. But as fiscal stimulus measures, it’s possible they don’t end up paying off in the long run.”第一生命研究所执行经济学家Hideo Kumano警告说，芯片行业的全球竞争力意味着最新战略远未取得成功。“这些补贴数额巨大。但作为财政刺激措施，从长远来看，它们最终可能不会产生回报。” The wave of people heading to the cities has resulted infour key urban areas surrounding Tokyo, Nagoya, Osakaand Fukuoka accounting for around 54% of Japan’spopulation and 60% of national output. Between 2000and 2020, the number of people living in Tokyo rose16%, while the national population shrank. 涌入城市的人口浪潮导致东京、名古屋、大阪和福冈周边四个主要城市地区约占日本人口的54%和全国产出的60%。2000年至2020年间，居住在东京的人口数量增加了16%，而全国人口却在减少。 The combined number of residents in Hokkaido andKumamoto fell 7.7% during that period, while the size oftheir combined regional economies contracted 2.9%.The cheap yen has invited a wave of tourists to Japan,helping bring money into regions with sightseeinghotspots, but more needs to be done for areas off thebeaten track. 在此期间，北海道和熊本的居民人数合计下降了7.7%，而地区经济规模合计则收缩了2.9%。廉价