科技日报美股盘前20260708

TMT BREAKOUTJUL 08, 2026∙PAID Good morning. QQQs -75bps / SPX -55bps and Oil +5% as Trump saying Iran peacedeal is “over” as US launched new strikes on Iran.In Tech, not a ton of factor whiplashso far assemis -1.7%only mildly underperforming early asInternet/Software -1.2%Memory names weaker(SNDK/MU -4% / WDC/STX -3%) following weakness in Asianames(Samsung -8%, SK Hynix -6.5%) 早上好。QQQ下跌75个基点，标普500下跌55个基点，原油上涨5%，因特朗普称伊朗和平协议“已破裂”，美国对伊朗发动了新⼀轮打击。科技板块⽅⾯，截⾄⽬前尚未出现剧烈波动，半导体板块仅下跌1.7%，表现略逊于⼤盘，互联⽹/软件板块下跌1.2%，存储类个股表现疲软（⻄部数据/美光科技下跌4%，⻄部数据/希捷科技下跌3%），延续了亚洲存储类个股的弱势（三星下跌8%，SK海⼒⼠下跌6.5%）。 Asia generally red overnight: TPX-1.37%,NKY-2.11%,Hang Seng+2.99%,HSCEI+4.04%,SHCOMP-0.49%,Shenzhen-1.97%,Taiwan TAIEX+0.56%,Korea KOSPI-5.35%. However, seeing strength in China internet names this morning with BABA+9% after a positive company update with analysts calling out better cloud growth(BIDU/JD +4% in sympathy) 隔夜亚洲市场普遍收跌：东证指数下跌1.37%，⽇经指数下跌2.11%，恒⽣指数上涨2.99%，国企指数上涨4.04%，上证综指下跌0.49%，深证成指下跌1.97%，台湾加权指数上涨0.56%，韩国KOSPI指数下跌5.35%。不过今早中国互联⽹个股表现强劲，阿⾥巴巴上涨9%，此前公司发布积极更新，分析师指出云计算业务增⻓向好（百度/京东跟涨4%）。 Lots to get to, so let’s get to it… 内容繁多，我们直接切⼊正题…… AAPL/AVGO: Apple commits$30 billion to Broadcom forU.S. chipmaking push 苹果/博通：苹果承诺向博通投资300亿美元⽤于美国芯⽚制造。 CNBC: Applesaid it’s expanding its partnership with chipmakerBroadcomin a multi-yeardeal expected to exceed$30 billion, marking the iPhone maker’s largest U.S.manufacturing commitment to date. 苹果表示，将扩⼤与芯⽚制造商博通的合作伙伴关系，这项为期多年的协议预计价值超过300亿美元，标志着这家iPhone制造商迄今在美国最⼤的制造业承诺。 The agreement, announced by Apple on Wednesday, will lead to the production ofmore than 15 billion U.S.-made chips and includes a$1.5 billion expansion ofBroadcom’s facility in Fort Collins, Colorado. Apple didn’t provide a timeline forwhen the new capacity will come online. 苹果周三宣布的这项协议将促成超过150亿块美国制造的芯⽚的⽣产，并包括斥资15亿美元扩建博通位于科罗拉多州柯林斯堡的⼯⼚。苹果未提供新产能投产的时间表。 AVGO: JPMorgan Reiterates OW Post-ManagementMeeting — TPU v9 “Totally On Track,” Apple ExtendedThrough 2031 With New ASIC Sockets AVGO：摩根⼤通在管理层会⾯后重申"增持"评级⸺TPU v9"完全按计划推进"，苹果合同延⻓⾄2031年并新增ASIC插槽 JPMorgan came away from a meeting with CEO Hock Tan incrementally moreconfident, with management directly rebutting the key bear debates. The next-genGoogle TPU (v9) roadmap is “totally on track” for a CY28 ramp with 400G SerDesalready working, and the 5-year Google deal embeds rising revenues and majorityvolume share — easing share-loss fears. 摩根⼤通在与⾸席执⾏官Hock Tan会⾯后信⼼增强，管理层直接反驳了关键空头论点。下⼀代⾕歌TPU（v9）路线图"完全按计划"推进，预计2028年量产，400G SerDes已可⼯作，⽽这份为期五年的⾕歌协议包含收⼊增⻓和多数份额保障⸺缓解了市场份额流失的担忧。 The Apple relationship extends through 2031 with new ASIC sockets plus RF.Inference is accelerating custom XPU adoption (frontier builders trending toward~50/50 XPU/GPU next year), Tomahawk 6 is sold out, and management dismissedhyperscaler in-house tooling concerns given multi-die packaging complexity. 苹果合作关系延续⾄2031年，新增ASIC插槽及射频业务。推理需求加速定制XPU采⽤（前沿构建者明年趋向~50/50的XPU/GPU配⽐），Tomahawk 6已售罄，管理层基于多芯⽚封装复杂性，打消了对超⼤规模企业⾃研⼯具的顾虑。 Some more color on the NDR call in TMTB Slack: TMTB Slack中关于NDR电话会议的更多细节： AAPL/Memory: Apple interest thrusts China’s CXMT intomemory chip spotlight AAPL/内存：苹果的兴趣将中国⻓鑫存储（CXMT）推⾄内存芯⽚聚光灯下 FinancialTimes:⾦融时报： CXMT has been thrust into the global spotlight by the race for memory chips. Applehas begun testing the company’s DRam chips for devices sold in China, accordingto two people familiar with the matter, as the iPhone maker leads a lobbying effortamong US tech companies to get the US government to allow broader use of thecompany’s product ⻓鑫存储（CXMT）因存储芯⽚的全球竞争⽽被推⾄聚光灯下。据两名知情⼈⼠透露，苹果已开始测试该公司⾯向中国销售设备所使⽤的DRAM芯⽚，同时这家iPhone制造商正牵头美国科技公司进⾏游说，希望美国政府允许更⼴泛地使⽤该公司的产品。 BABA +9%: Company update with analysts pointed tocloud revs growing by 45% up from 38% in March q withlow teens EBITDA better than March q’s 9% whiledomestic e-comm EBITA better than feared as fooddelivery subsidy war largely reduced. 阿⾥巴巴（BABA）上涨9%：分析师的公司动态更新指出，云业务收⼊将增⻓45%，⾼于三⽉份的38%；EBITDA达低两位数，优于三⽉份的9%；国内电商EBITA好于预期，主要得益于外卖补贴战⼤幅降温。 Anthropic: SemiAnalysis Says IPO Would Cement AILeadership, Sees Path to$6T Valuation Anthropic：SemiAnalysis称其IPO将巩固AI领导地位，预计估值可达6万亿美元 SemiAnalysis argues Anthropic has emerged as the clear leader in enterprise AI,combining faster growth with a superior, API-heavy business model that generatesstronger margins than OpenAI and creates a powerful reinvestment advantage. SemiAnalysis认为，Anthropic已成为企业级AI领域的明确领导者，其增⻓速度更快，商业模式以API为主且利润更⾼，盈利能⼒优于OpenAI，从⽽形成了强⼤的再投资优势。 The firm believes Anthropic should IPO before OpenAI to capitalize on its financialstrength, fund massive future compute needs, and widen its lead in frontier models,forecasting unconstrained demand for more than 100GW of compute by 2030. 这家公司认为，Anthropic应在OpenAI之前上市，以充分利⽤其财务实⼒，为未来巨⼤的算⼒需求提供资⾦，并进⼀步扩⼤在前沿模型领域的领先优势。该公司预测，到2030年，市场对算⼒的⽆约束需求将超过100GW。 SemiAnalysis estimates Anthropic’s ARR has already surpassed$60B, expectsmonthly net new ARR to accelerate further as coding expands into new AI verticals,and values the company at approximately$6T based on 20x