全球金属与矿业：2026年第三季度大宗商品与股权更新——通胀下滑对多数金属是风险、对黄金是回报

Global Metals & Mining: 3Q26 Commodity & Equity Update -Falling inflation will be a risk to most metals but a reward to gold shareprice with the exception ofthe smelter-heavyBoliden andthe gold-heavy BarrickandNewmont.Ourmacroapproachsuggestswearelatecycleandequitymultiples (exceptforgold stocks)sit elevated as well. We are thus defensive. We think disinflation (falling inflation)will startto reducecashcosts (putting pressure on price) whileproviding roomfora new (andopaque?)FedChairtobemoredovish. +19173448422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com +44 20 76766825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.con Full details across all commodities, markets and equities follow, but we highlight some keyideas here. Copper.We have passedthedeadlinefortheUS Department of Commerceto endorse ornot refined coppertariffs. We (a minority view) would argue that a delay suggests a tradedeal is the preferred means for critical mineral security. We don't believe today is a goodcopper entry point (but a RIO outperform helps balance if we're wrong).ANTO and FCX(market perform) win if we are wrong Nickel. On the short list of cheap metals. Indonesian discipline has helped set a floor withnext step a rebalance.GLEN (market perform) best exposed in our coverage. Aluminum.Strait has reopened (kind of) softening prices but the next step is slow andcostlyrepairs.Weliketheslowglidebacktonormal.RlO(outperform)mostlevered through the system will subside. The Fed knows this and can wait on rate hikes? If so,bullish gold.ABX andNEM (outperforms)most levered. Iron Ore.Chinese squabbling with suppliers and a weak China macro have sent pricesbelow $10O/t.We expect a very modest trimming from here.RIO, VALE and BHP mostlevered to a flattish price. weathermaybepositivecatalystintoyear end.GLEN (marketperform)bestexposed in ourcoverage PRICETARGETCHANGE/ESTIMATECHANGEINBOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedFCX, NEM estimate is Reported EPS; FCX, NEM valuation is Reported P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS AsweareinQ32026,weareupdatingourcompanymodelswithourlatestcommoditypricesandFXestimates. We have Outperform ratings on Barrick,Newmont, and Rio Tinto. ABX (Outperform) Wetrim ourpricetargetfrom CAD91.00to CAD 86.00 toreflect our latest commodityprice deck andexchangerate estimates.We also adjust the EV/EBITDA multiple from 5.75x to 5.00x to reflect risk of rising capex and delayed timeline of Reko Diq Wetrimourpricetarget fromUSD157.00toUSD147.00toreflectourlatestcommoditypricedeck and exchangerate estimates.Wecontinue touse EV/EBITDAmultipleof 6.75xagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. estimates.Wecontinuetousea25/75combinationof DCFandanEV/EBITDAmultipleof6.0Oxagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. and Vale. We trim our price target from GBP26.50 to GBP 25.00 to reflect our latest commodity prices and exchange rates estimates.Wecontinueto usea25/75 combination of DCFand an EV/EBITDAmultipleof 7.00xagainst our forward2027EBITDA estimate. ANTO (Market-Perform) Weraise ourprice target fromGBP28.00toGBP28.50to reflect ourlatestcommodityprice deck and exchange rateestimates.We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCFand an EV/EBITDAmultiple of 8.0xagainstour forward 2027EBITDAestimate. BHP (Market-Perform) Weraise ourtargetprice fromGBP21.00toGBP23.00to reflect our latest commodityprice deck and exchange rateestimates.Wecontinuetousea25/75combinationofDCFandanEV/EBITDAmultipleof6.0xagainstourforward2027EBITDAestimate. BOL (Market-Perform) WetrimourpricetargetfromSEK580toSEK520toreflectourlatestcommodityprice deckandexchangerateestimates.Wecontinue to use a 50/50 combination of DCFand anEV/EBITDAmultiple of 5.50xagainst ourforward 2027EBITDA estimate. FCX (Market-Perform) WetrimourpricetargetfromUSD58.50toUSD50.00toreflectourlatestcommoditypricedeck,newcostestimatesandexchange rate estimates.We continueto use EV/EBITDAmultiple of 7.0Ox against ourforward 2027EBITDAestimate. GLEN (Market-Perform) WeraiseourpricetargetfromGBP4.55toGBP4.85reflectourlatestcommoditypricedeckand exchangerateestimates.Wecontinuetousea50/50combinationof DCFand anEV/EBITDAmultipleof5.Oxagainstourforward 2027EBITDAestimate. VALE(Market-Perform) We trimour price targetfromUSD14.80to USD12.00to reflect our latestcommodity price deckand exchangerate estimates.Weusea25/75combinationofDCFandanEV/EBlTDAmultipleof4.25xagainstourforward2027EBlTDAestimate Macro is Back onthe Driver Seat.China.Copper...23Nickel.Aluminium......38Zinc46Gold...52Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)...63Iron ore...71Met coal....77Thermalcoal..82Equityvaluationsand summaries...88 ValuationshavecomeofftheirQ1highs,particularlyacrossbasemetals names.Forexample, ANTOtradedabove9xinQ1 and now sits at 7.7x, whileAAL hasfallenfrom over8xto 6.7x.Bycontrast,Newmont and Barrick continue to trade onrelatively low multiples, as uncertainty around interest rates continues to weigh on the gold price outlo