全球金属与矿业：2026年供应之墙

Global Metals & Mining: 2026 Walls of Supply Understanding the progress of large/important mining projects is integral to our frameworkin analyzing the sector. In this note, we analyze hundreds of projects across twelvecommodities which have the potential (reserves & resources) to contribute more than 1% ofcurrent demand. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Commodity up-cycles typically end when either (a) demand retreats or (b) supply surges.We investigate the threat of large-scale supply shocks for a variety of commodities in thisnote as we do every year. The high level answer if you choose to stop reading now is (butplease don't!)...we haven’t seen any evidence of a wall of large base metal or preciousmetal projects looming over the market. However, we stillworry about the lithium andpotash wall of supply. There are at least two forms of a "wall of supply". One case is driven by "quantity" – lotsof small greenfield projects coming to market ("kindergarteners chasing the ball" or "theshale revolution" for example). We safely assume that small greenfields are high costgreenfields (the world's best mines are often the biggest mines, benefitting from economiesof scale and the minimization of fixed operating costs). We believe a combination of capitaldiscipline in the sector and lack of a technology revolution mitigates such worry of a flood ofsuch projects, so we ignore them for now. The second case is driven by "quality". When a sufficiently world-class mine enters themarket, it can itself be a significant supply surge. In this note we examine (for a number ofmetals) what the pre-sanctioned pipelines of projects look like, what might be holding themback and whether a wall of supply is imminent. Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3 highlight the key findings. Consistent with our findings in previousyears, we still see theleast threat of supply for diamonds, gold, zinc, and silver. Wesee themost threat for potash, lithium, platinum, iron oreand cobalt (although as aby-product, its fate is driven by other metals). In between metals include copper, bauxite,and nickel. In terms of concentration (i.e., how important are the mega-projects to theoverall supply), potash, lithium, and bauxite are most abundant elements with large chunksof supply while gold, silver, and zinc the most diffuse. This distinction between the moreabundant ("base & bulks") and the more rare ("precious') metals is not surprising. We deploy a traffic light approach to argue that the gap between a project sitting in aspreadsheet and a physical mine is quite a chasm to cross.The vast majority of projectswe review aren’t imminent and should be watched rather than feared. We compareour analysis to a similar analysis carried out last year and find thatthe walls haven’tchanged much(Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5). (While the high level conclusion is unchanged,we note that we have updated the details of hundreds of individual mines.) Thisreaffirms our view that we don’t expect a wall of supply to enter the market and incur theclassic commodity down-cycle. We stress the point that no spreadsheet project evercontributed a ton of metal. Projects have to leave Excel and enter the physical world andthat physical world seems increasingly unwilling to help, particularly on the ESG front. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedFCX, NEM estimate is Reported EPS; FCX, NEM valuation is Reported P/E (x); BOL.SS, FCX, GLEN.LN, VALE, VALE3.BZ base year is 2024;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain our Outperform ratings on ABX, NEM, and RIO. We maintain our Market-Perform ratings on AAL, ANTO, BHP, BOL, FCX, GLEN, and VALE. GLEN (Market-Perform) We are maintaining our price target at GBP 4.25 after adjusting for latest H2 2025 results, our latest commodity price deckand exchange rate estimates. We continue to use a 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.0x against ourforward 2027 EBITDA estimate. Table Of Contents Walls of Supply..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................3Copper..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7Nickel......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 12Zinc.......................................................................................