全球金属与矿业：伯恩斯坦“老大哥”大宗晴雨表：铁矿石销售每周实时预览

Global Metals & Mining: The Bernstein “Big Brother” BulkBarometer — Our Weekly Real Time Preview of Iron Ore Sales We monitor real-time iron ore shipments by the world's major producers on a ship-by-ship basis as tonnage is loaded at the world's iron ore export terminals. We present ourconclusions in this weekly report. This unique research is proprietary to Bernstein. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Our final Q3 2025 volume estimate of 323.4Mt was 1.3% above the 319.2Mtreported. Our Q3 estimates were as follows: Rio Tinto posted Q3 sales of 84.3Mt (vs. 85.2Mt estimate), 5.6% QoQ and -0.2% YoY. BHP posted Q3 sales of 70.6Mt (vs. 71Mt estimate), -8% QoQ and -1.3% YoY. Vale posted Q3 sales of 86Mt (vs. 84.1Mt estimate), 11.2% QoQ and 5.1% YoY. FMG posted Q3 sales of 49.7Mt (vs. 51.9Mt estimate), -10% QoQ and 4.2% YoY. Anglo Brazil posted Q3 sales of 5Mt (vs. 5.1Mt estimate), -24.4% QoQ and -21.1% YoY. Anglo SA posted Q3 sales of 9.4Mt (vs. 11.9Mt estimate), -3.9% QoQ and 6.5% YoY.Roy Hill posted Q3 sales of 14.2Mt (vs. 14.2Mt estimate), -17% QoQ and -1% YoY. Our current seasonally adjusted Q4 2025 shipment volume estimate comes in at337.1Mt, 5.6% QoQ; 5.6% YoY. Our current Q4 estimates are as follows:Rio Tinto - of 88.1MtBHP - of 74.7MtVale - of 80.4MtFMG - of 51.5MtAnglo Brazil - of 6.1MtAnglo SA - of 9.6MtRoy Hill - of 17.5Mt BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLD INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS This report allows us to estimate (to "nowcast") quarterly iron ore sales from producers in our coverage ahead of the earnings.We also update FCX company models to reflect latest announcement on Grasberg. FCX (Outperform) We maintain our price target at USD 45.00 after updating company model to reflect the latest announcement on Grasberg. Wecontinue to use an unchanged EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. DETAILS In Exhibit 1, we present the aggregate reported quarterly sales over the past six years, as well as our estimate for sales for thecoming quarter. In Exhibit 3, we show the aggregate weekly shipments, which we compare to last week's shipments and to the quarter-to-dateand year-to-date weekly averages. In Exhibit 4, we show the weekly shipments observed vs. reported. Rio Tinto BHP Australia FMG Australia Anglo American South America PRODUCT RECAP: AN ILLUSTRATION We monitorreal-time iron ore shipments by the world's major producers on a ship by ship basisas tonnage is loaded atthe world's iron ore export terminals. We know where the ships are heading to and the tonnage they transport. We run the same EXHIBIT 18:We have live satellite images of export berths. Here is BHP's port terminal in Western Australia.Loaded ships are shown in blue – let us look at Cape Laurel for illustration purposes APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS FREEPORT-MCMORAN EXHIBIT 22:Freeport financial summary DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited and On April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloom