伯恩斯坦的汉堡与啤酒……2025年5月 6月餐厅回顾 预览

Restricted - External Industry UpdateU.S. RestaurantsNEUTRALU.S. RestaurantsJeffreyA. Bernstein+1 212 526 3855jeffrey.bernstein@barclays.comBCI, USPratik Patel+1 212 526 4438pratik.m.patel@barclays.comBCI, USAnisha Datt+1 212 526 1880anisha.datt@barclays.comBCI, USInvestment SciencesTroy Li(iv)+1 212 526 1825troy.li@barclays.comBCI, US Management News•CMG; named Kidd as COO, replacing Boatwright who was promoted to CEO in 4Q24; Kiddmost recently global COO at Taco Bell, & previously president of Hearing Lab (5/6).•EAT; promoted White to COO & chief peopleofficer;White most recently Chili’s co-COO,supporting the eastern US locations, and originally joined Brinker 29 years ago (5/12).•TWNP; appointed Boerema as CEO, replacing Hummel who resigned in April ’25 following thecompany’s IPO; Boerema most recently CEO of Iron Hill Brewery (5/15).•Smoothie King; ~1,200-unit chain named Felder as president in addition to role of president;Felder joined the brand in May ’24, having previously spent 16 years at YUM (5/22).•JACK; promoted Hooper to CFO, replacing Tucker who was promoted to CEO in 1Q25; Hooperwas interim financialofficerseveral times, and joined Jack 25 years ago (5/28).•Culver’s; ~1,000-unit chain promoted Modjeski to COO, replacing Keiser; Modjeski mostrecently the chain’s VP of franchise services, and joined Culver’s 25 years ago (5/28).Marketing News•DNUT; paused McDonald’s rollout amid slower-than-expected demand, while alsosuspending its quarterly dividend & planning to exit 5-10% of its US points of access (5/8).•White Castle; ~340-unit chain focused on value with launch of “6 for $4” Original Slider LTOstarting May 9th, or $0.67 / Slider, less than the regular menu price in 2012 (5/8).•WEN; launched its Frosty Fusion platform on May 12th which includes sauces & mix-ins suchas Oreos & Pop-Tarts; launch followed initial Frosty Swirls launch on April15th (5/12).•MCD; brought back Squishmallows Happy Meal in the US, the second collaboration with theplush toysafterthe initial launch in late ’23; features 12 collectible characters (5/14).•SHAK; launched Fried Pickles as first new side addition to the menu in brands 20-year history,with the only other side being crinkle cut fries; Fried Pickles priced at $3.99 (5/20).•SHAK; announced a licensing partnership with PENN to open 10 units in US casinos, startingwith Ohio & Missouri in ’26; brand already has three co-op units in casinos (5/21).•DIN; ~1,500-unit Applebee’s US launched dirty sodas & brought back All You Can Eat LTO for$15.99, including Riblets, Double Crunch Shrimp & Chicken Tenders (5/21).•SHAK; introducing first loyaltyofferfor app orders; Challenge 1 invites guests to order anyburger on two separate occasions within 30 days to get $10offtheir next visit (5/28).Industry Specific•n/aSources: Nation’s Restaurant News, QSR Magazine, FSR Magazine, and company reports 2 June Calendar PreviewWeek of June 2•6/6 - May Employment Situation; Government Data… within this report, we focus on FoodServices & Drinking Places detail.Week of June 9•6/11 - May Consumer Price Index; Gov't Data… within the report, we focus on Food away fromHome, including Limited & Full Service.•6/12 - May Producer Price Index; Government Data… within the report, we focus onCommodity Food Pricing (i.e., Beef, Chicken).•6/12 - May World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE); Gov't Data… within thereport, we focus on the commodity outlook.•6/13 - June University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers… Preliminary.Week of June 16•6/17 - May Advance Monthly Sales; Government Data… within the report, we focus on FoodServices and Drinking Places detail.•6/17 - 2025 American Customer Satisfaction Index - Restaurant and Food Delivery Study.•6/20 - DRI reports 4QF25 results before market open; conference call at 8:30 AM EDT…preview note to follow.Week of June 23•6/24 - June Consumer Confidence Index; Government Data.•6/26 - 1Q25 Third Estimate Gross Domestic Product; Government Data.•6/27 - June University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers… Final.•6/27 - May Personal Income and Outlays; Gov't Data… within the report, we focus on DPIcorrelated with Restaurant Sales. 3 Stock Price Trends•May:Barclays Restaurants Tracker was up ~8%, relative to the broader S&P up ~6%.•2025 YTD:Barclays Restaurants Tracker is down ~1%, relative to the broader S&P up ~1%.FIGURE 1. Barclays Research Restaurants TrackerNote: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future resultsSource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Quickservice•Category underperformed the broader market in May, similar to April.•May Outliers°JACK (-27%)afterposting 2QF25 results.FIGURE 3. DPZ vs. JACK vs. MCD vs. QSR vs. WEN vs. YUM vs. S&P 500Note: 30-April-2025 to 30-May-2025 (Daily); 30-April-2025 = 100Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchCasual Dining•Category outperformed the broader market in May, following in-line performance in April.•May Outliers°BJRI (+34%)afterposting 1Q25 results & EAT (+29%) despite no material news