中国金属与矿业：追踪大宗商品动态（6月8日至14日）

China (PRC) | Metals & Mining Connecting the Dots in Commodities (Jun8-14) Wetrack high-frequency data,including price,spread and inventorymovement etc in China commodities. •Copper: LME cash increased 1% WoW. US reported the closely-watched May CPI lastweek at 4.2%, highest in 3 years, but in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.9%, alsoin line, and high energy cost has yet to affect other prices, which relieved concerns of animmediate rate hike. However, US PPI was 6.5% in May, and ECB hiked interest rate forthe first time since 2023 amid inflationary pressure. The Middle East war, inflation, andthus, Fed decision remain key things to watch. A de-escalation is positive for copper.• Aluminum: LME cash dropped 3% WoW, while China spot was mostly flat. Chinaunwrought aluminum and aluminum product exports were 632kt in May, +5% MoM/+14.5% YoY; May YTD exports were 2.7mt, +10% YoY. While China exports relieveoverseas tightness and lead to lower arbitrage, we expect the export momentum tocontinue at least in the near term, with LME premium still over 10%. While the Middle Eastde-escalation could affect the risk premium on aluminum price in near term, the capacitiessuspended during the conflict will take time to recover, i.e. the tightness would continue. •Lithium: China lithium carbonate spot declined 1.2% WoW per BBG, vs SMM price quoterebounding by RMB7.5/t or 4.6% WoW, thanks to developments on the supply side.Firstly on Jun 8, Jiangxi Bureau of Natural Resources announced the cancellation of"Pre-approval and Site Selection Opinion on Land Use for Project Construction" related toJianxiawo lepidolite mine, as requested by the company. This indicates that Jianxiawo isunlikely to restart in 2026, reinforcing our earlier expectation. The pre-approval is requiredfor official land use approval. Technically, the company could reapply immediately andit would usually take 15-30 working days to get a new pre-approval, according toShanghai Securities News. However, other approvals are required before the mine canfully restart; some expect at least 1 year. Elsewhere, a fire occurred during maintenancework at Tianqi's Greenbushes CGP3 on Jun 9. Detailed assessment is underway; Tianqimentioned this could impact CGP3 ramp-up, but key facilities are not affected, and there'sno impact on CGP1/2. We have yet to assume materially-lower volume this year, but thissupported price sentiment.• Thermal coal: QHD5500 was flat WoW. On Jun 8, Shaanxi province NDRC announcedthat ensure energy supply during the summer peak season, coal mining companieswere asked to "release advanced capacities under the conditions of compliant and safeproduction, to reach full capacity when possible and maintain/ increase output." Shaanxiis mainly a thermal coal producer vs the affected region in Shanxi, which mainly producesmet coal. This announcement suggests there may not be significant supply contraction,at least in Shaanxi (16% of China's total raw coal output). Meanwhile, at central gov level,the Ministry of Emergency Management emphasized on the same day that companiesshould learn from the accident, and strengthen safety inspection to prevent accidentsfrom happening. According to MySteel, production at the recovered mines is 30%+ lowervs before the accident. We believe the priority on safety will prevail and thus, cap thesupply upside.• Steel: Spread continued to be squeezed by lower steel and higher coke prices. Totalweekly apparent consumption slightly recovered by 0.4% WoW but remains at a seasonallow.• Cement: National average price corrected by RMB1/t or 0.3% WoW on weak demand.Daily output as % capacity stayed at past-year low of 43%, -2ppt WoW. Spread wassqueezed as coal price remained elevated. Weekly chartbook Copper .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: SMM, Jefferies .Source: Wind, LME, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Aluminum .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Lithium .Source: SMM, Jefferies .Source: GFEX, Jefferies Thermal coal Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Sxcoal, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Steel .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Mysteel, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Cement .Source: Digital Cement, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Digital Cement, Wind, Jefferies Company Valuation/Risks Tianqi Lithium Our PT for A share is based on 2028E EPS of RMB 4.6 and target PE of 17x, discounted to 2026 using WACC of 11.6%. Our lithium carbonateand spodumene price forecast is RMB 16k/t/ and USD 1,900/t