中国大宗商品周度跟踪（2025年5月25日至31日）

China (PRC) | Metals & Mining Connecting the Dots in Commodities (May25-31) We track high-frequency data, incl price, spread and inventory movement, policy remains a key influence factor. China PMI in May was 50.0, -0.3ppt MoM, withlarge companies' PMI increasing further in expansion territory to 51.1 while mid/ smallcompanies dropping to below 49. The destocking in China social inventory paused, and weeks, as relatively high copper price affected new order momentum.• Aluminum: China aluminum spot price slightly dropped by 0.4% WoW while LME cashincreased by 1.3% WoW, leading to a widened LME premium. According to SMM,Rio Tinto/ South32 offered USD460/480/t quote for 3Q26 MJP premium, which isUSD110-130/t higher QoQ, indicating tight market ex-China. China aluminum ingot + bar social inventory slightly dropped by 1.2% WoW. We expect the destocking trend tocontinue in the near term given sustained and widened LME premium. Lithium: China lithium carbonate spot price dropped by RMB5k/t or 2.8% WoW amidsoft sentiment. Weekly production slid by 1.3% WoW and inventory dropped by 1.2%WoW. According to Mining Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe has classified 14 minerals, includinglithium, as critical minerals. As a result, it bans the export of raw/ unbeneficiatedform and mandates state shareholding via SPVs. Separate regulations are required to Shuhang Jiang * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1137 | shuhang.jiang@jefferies.com recent years, while inventory remains lower YoY. According to MySteel survey on Jun1, ~38% of coal capacities recovered from temporary shutdown in Shanxi, but the dailyvolume on average is 20%+ lower than before the suspension; over half of the minesthat were shut since the accident remain closed. For coal mines outside Qinyuan County molten iron production vs sequentially slower demand into Jun is likely to continue topressure on margin. •Cement: National average cement price increased marginally by RMB1/t or 0.2% WoW,mainly due to cost push e.g. from coal, and spread was flat. Daily output as % of inventoryincreased by 4ppt WoW, but remains a multi-year low at 43%. Looking into Jun, demand Weekly chartbook Copper Source: SMM, Jefferies .Source: Wind, LME, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Aladdiny, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies .Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Source: Wind, SMM, Jefferies Thermal coal Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Sxcoal, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Steel .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Mysteel, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies .Source: Wind, Jefferies Source: Wind, Jefferies Cement .Source: Digital Cement, Wind, Jefferies .Source: Digital Cement, Jefferies Metals & MiningEquity ResearchJune 1, 2026 Analyst Certification: I, Shuhang Jiang, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or Registration of non-US analysts:Shuhang Jiang is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation Distributed June 1, 2026 6:55 A.M.June 1, 2026 6:55 A.M. Explanation of Jefferies Ratings Buy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period. Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated securities with an average security price consistently below $10 is 20% or more withina 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated securities with an average security price NR - The investment rating and price tar