金属矿业大宗商品展望行业更新。Q2上一页。..-116388210
IndustryMetals & Mining Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 6 July 2025Metals & MiningMetals & MiningPage 2EBITDA of NOK 7.3bn, similar to consensus. Given the extended weakness indownstream demand and that much of the company's ~NOK 6bn pa in growthcapex (2025-28) is focused in Extrusions and recycling, there is scope for thecompany to moderate investment levels in 2026, in our view. BOL results are due18 July: we forecast Q2 EBIT ex PIR of SEK 1.4bn (Fig 2), 29% below Bloombergconsensus (SEK 1.9bn) and down heavily on Q1 (SEK 2.6bn). Q2 will reflect the fullimpact of lower copper and zinc annual contract TCs (-SEK 0.3bn QoQ), the largestsmelter maintenance quarter (-SEK 0.4bn) of the year and headwinds fromstrengthening local currencies.Data & news flowChina produced 3.6 mt of aluminiumin Jun (30 days), up 1.6% YoY and marginallydown 0.2% MoM on daily output basis. Operating capacity for Jun was 43.83 mt,with operating rate down 0.2 ppts MoM. The Jan-Jun 2025 YTD output up 2.5% YoY(2024 full year was up 4% YoY).China's power grid investmentfor May at CNY 63.2billion, up 33% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up 20% YoY. China's Solar power installedcapacity for May at 92.4 GW, up 374% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up 143% YoY. China'sWind power installed capacity for May at 26.3 GW, up 774% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up138% YoY.China’s BF capacity utilisationrate for the week ending 26 Jun stoodat 90.8%, flat WoW and up 1.7 ppts YoY. Traders’ steelinventoriesdown 1% WoW(down 29% YoY). Iron ore port inventories up 0.3% WoW (down 7% YoY).Chinaproperty salesincreased 41% WoW (in line with the seasonal trend), althoughdown 10% YoY over the past four weeks. China’s power generation index flat WoW(flat last 4 weeks YoY).China copper concentrate spot TC-US$43.6/t on 27 Jun(-US$43.7/t last week), still close to an all-time low. China base metal inventories:copper and zinc inventories decreased by 10% and 3% WoW respectively, whilealuminium inventories increased by 1% WoW.Commodity price and FX trends (Fig 11-18)Base metals were mixed over the past week with nickel (+2%) and aluminium (+1%)increasing while copper (-2%) and zinc (-1%) declined. Precious metals were alsomixed ranging from (0% to -3%). Bulks increased, with NEWC (+5%) leading themove higher followed by coking coal (+4%) and iron ore (+2%). Mining currenciesbroadly appreciated against the USD, with the ZAR and BRL (both +2%) increasingthe most while the SEK (-1%) declined.MTM earnings & valuations (Fig 2-10)Spot FCF yields (2026)are highest for GLEN and Vale (9%) followed by RIO (8%),Anglo (8%) and BHP (3%).Spot EV/EBITDAis lowest for Vale (3.7x) followed byGLEN (4.1x) RIO (4.6x), Anglo (6.3x) and BHP (6.6x). With iron ore now in the mid-$90s, the iron ore majors are facing small downgrade risk. Anglo and GLENearnings risks has improved from negative to broadly neutral on higher copper andthermal coal prices. The strong copper and gold price continues to provide anearnings kicker for copper names; FCX's upgrade risk is >10%, other copper names0-10%. Hydro is facing upgrades of ~5%, while BOL is facing a small downgrade(SEK strength, zinc weakness).OurMining Valuation Compositeis at a 9% discountto trend levels. 6 July 2025Metals & MiningMetals & MiningDeutsche Bank AGDB Mining latest research highlightsnMetals & Mining: Pricing & earnings update, valuations & top picksnCommodities Outlook: Tariff TurbulencenTeck: Q2 Preview: QB performance remains in the spotlight; HoldnBoliden: Q2 preview: FX and smelter headwinds; consensus is far too high.nNHY: Q2 preview: a reset of capex levels to match downstream conditions?nFCX : Q2 preview: big rebound in profits as US copper tariff decision looms.nLundin Mining - CMD quick takes - a solid update, but left waiting on VicuñanGlobal Copper: Kamoa-Kakula disruption & latest supply trendsnGlencore: A trip to the Elk Valley as break-up speculation buildsnRio Tinto: Revised mine plan at OT, but guidance for 2025/26 unchangednAnglo American - Refreshed estimates & SOTPs post Valterra demergernEuropean steel - US steel tariffs possibly set to doublenFreeport-McMoRan: Copper tariffs back in focus. BuynAnglo American: Revisiting our SOTPs: >30% upside on deliverynRio Tinto: CEO to step downnANTO: Zaldivar EIA approval: a de-risking and potential consolidation eventnBHP - CEO roundtable feedbacknVale: Q1 results: conservative outlook for shareholder returns. HoldnFirst Quantum: Q1 results: progress at Cobre Panama. BuynBHP - Q3: strong copper performance & major replacement project delayednRio Tinto: Q1 production: a weather-disrupted quarter, key projects on tracknAntofagasta: Q1 production: seasonally soft, but guidance reiterated. HoldnGlobal Aluminium: Expert Call - key industry developments & conclusionsnRecession analysis: a comparison with previous downturnsnMetals & Mining - Key talking points with investorsnFCX: Upgrade to Buy: valuation disconnect & potential US policy catalystsnMetal
