大宗商品展望：电池金属市场稳定，但库存压力限制上涨空间

Apr inrOctJanAprinrOctJanAprJulOctJanApr22232425LNGCopperGoldIron ore++ StrategySentiment continues to weigh on battery metal marketsSentiment in battery metal markets remained weak in the first half of 2025 amid signs ofslowing demand growth. The outlook for electric vehicle (EV) adoption has taken a hit aspolicy shifts in key markets and more cost-conscious consumers forced global Evmanufacturers to pull back on lofty targets.TheTrump administrationreversedkey EV-supportivepolicies,includingthe repeal oftheBiden-era target for 50% of new cars to be electric by 2030. Trump's One Big Beautiful Billfurther affected this shift by significantly curtailing energy incentives in the InflationReduction Act (IRA). Major battery and automotive manufacturers have subsequentlypaused or postponed new Us projects, reflecting heightened operational and regulatoryrisks.In Europe, consumer purchasing decisions are increasingly susceptible to short-term policyfluctuations,undermining market predictability.The EU's2035 combustion enginebanisundergoing re-evaluation, which has eroded automakers' long-term investment confidence.China's EV market is maturing quickly, with EVs hitting 49% of new car sales from Januaryto May 2025. Some segments are already saturated. Sales of mini and small vehiclesdropped from a peak in 2024 and now are either fully or almost fully electric. In the large carandSUVsegments,EVsaccountedformorethanhalf of vehiclessoldlastyear.Demandgrowth has slowed.JanMaySepJanMay23A price war in the world's biggest EV market has also exacerbated the situation for thebatterymetal market.China'spassengervehicleproductioncapacityhasincreasedtoalmost 50 million units by the end of 2024. This is significantly greater than current saleswith the average utilisation rate sitting at 55%. This has triggered a price war, as automakerslooktoachieveeconomiesofscale.Thathasplacedafocusoncostswithmanufacturerspressuring suppliers such as battery makers to lower prices. This has ultimately flowedthrough into the battery metal market. This was despite efforts by major producers to reign insupply to alleviate the persistent oversupply of lithium, cobalt and nickel.BHPannouncedinOctober2024thatitwouldbeshuttingdownitsNickelWestoperationsciting oversupply and weak prices. In Europe and Latin America, low prices have forced theclosure of FeNi operations. Elsewhere, projects were cancelled or ran into financialdifficulties (e.g. Araguaia in Brazil and Revolt Ett in Sweden). Even China is feeling thepinch. Utilisation rates at Chinese NPI smelters have declined to approximately 40%, thelowest since 2017. Production is expected to fall by 50 kt in 2024.Zimbabweannounced itwill bantheexportoflithiumconcentratesfrom2o27asitextendsthe push for more local processing. There is a trend, especially in countries rich in resourcesbut with relatively low development capacity, to restrict the direct export of raw materials,such as ores, and gradually develop domestic processing. Figure 2. China EV sales1.751.501.251.000.750.500.25Jan May SepJan May SepJan May SepJan May SepJan May24252122China New Energy Vehicle Sales & Registrations, LHS -.Yly growth, RHSSource: CAAM, Bloomberg, Macrobond, ANZ Research 250225200175150125755025232425 2 Source: , Bloomberg, Macrobond, ANZ ResearchANZ Commodity Call | 11 July 2025 Amidthecostpressures,somenon-integrated lithiumrefiners inmainlandChinahavebeenforced to halt or reduce production, according to the Shanghai Metals Market. This is in linewith local reports that claimed the lithium carbonate price fell below break-even level in mid-May.In the cobalt market, prices rallied more than 65% in late February after the DemocraticRepublic of Congo (DRC) announced it would temporarily halt exports due to continued highlevels of stock on the market. The DRC produces approximately 75% of world supply of themetal. Supply has surged in recent years, as China's CMOC Group ramped up output at twolarge mines in the central African nation.However, with production in the DRC unimpacted by the export ban, LME prices failed tohold above USD35,000/t. This was even after the DRC extended the temporary export banbythreemonths until theendofSeptember.The spot market has seen supply shortages of cobalt raw materials due to this ban.However, the export ban cannot fundamentally solve the contradiction between supply anddemand, so market participants are all waiting and seeing.Figure 4. LME nickel, cobalt and copper11000900001050080000100007000000S660000USD/Met9000USD/85008000750020000700010000232425Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May22232425Copper,LHSNickel, RHS Cobalt, RHSSource: LME, Bloomberg, Macrobond, ANZ ResearchChina is taking the opportunity to build up inventoryChina has long used stockpiling as a broad strategy, partly intended to strengthen China'sglobal positionandsecuresuppliesof essentialcommoditiesChina's economic boom over 2005-15 led to a strong rise in commodity demand. Massivesteel and metals. The