大宗商品展望与行业更新：Q2预览与估值

IndustryMetals & Mining Commodities Outlook & SectorUpdate.Q2 previews. Valuations Liam Fitzpatrick Commodities Outlook: Tariff Turbulence Research Analyst+44-20-754-13233 We published our Commodities Outlook this week. De-escalation on the trade fronthas led to a strong rebound in industrial metals through Q2. Near term, we do notbelieve global growth is strong enough for metal prices to sustainably break higher,but if trade uncertainties continue to clear, it could finally pave the way for arecovery in ex-China metal demand in 2026.Copperhas been the star performer inH1 on mine supply disruptions and potential US tariffs. We forecast a short termpeak in prices in Q3 ($9,850/t), with the potential for high volatility around the tariffannouncement. We see thealuminiummarket in a small surplus and forecast rangebound prices in H2. Our core view remains that a recovery in ex-China demandagainst a backdrop of structurally slowing primary production in China will supportprices at >$2,600/t in 2026. Foriron ore, we leave our price forecasts unchanged,with a seasonal low of $95/t in Q3. Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 Metals & Mining: Pricing & earnings update, valuations & top picksIn our Sector Update, we provided a detailed summary of our estimates, valuations and recommendations across our European and North American coverage. Angloremainsa compelling multi-year story;as the company delivers on thesimplification (copper increasing to >60% of EBITDA) and volume growth strategy(~20% 2025-28), we see scope for the shares to re-rate further (£26 TP, upside caseof >£30). Despite outperforming through Q2, GLEN remains in deep value territory(£4 TP) and coal prices are close to a cyclical trough. We upgraded FCX (Buy) earlierthis year and earnings risk remains firmly to the upside. Q2 Previews (FCX, TECK, BOL, Hydro). FCX results are due 23 July: we forecast Q2 EBITDA of $2.95bn (consensus$2.88bn), up materially on Q1 ($1.89bn), driven by higher copper and gold prices,higher copper volumes and a four fold increase in gold sales volumes. We arelargely aligned with FCX's Q2 and 2025 guidance, although our net cash costassumption for Q2 is below (134c vs 150c), due to an almost $300/oz increase in thegold price. TECK results are due 24 July: we forecast TECK Q2 EBITDA of CAD 766m,down on Q1 (CAD 927m) and below the Bloomberg consensus (CAD 825m),reflecting several operational setbacks in Q2. QB production is now expected to beat the low end of the 230-270 kt volume range for 2025 and upper end of the 180-215c unit cost range, due to operational challenges in Q1 and tailings-relatedmaintenance work in Q2 and Q3. Hydro results are due 22 July: we forecast Q2 6 July 2025Metals & MiningMetals & Mining EBITDA of NOK 7.3bn, similar to consensus. Given the extended weakness indownstream demand and that much of the company's ~NOK 6bn pa in growthcapex (2025-28) is focused in Extrusions and recycling, there is scope for thecompany to moderate investment levels in 2026, in our view. BOL results are due18 July: we forecast Q2 EBIT ex PIR of SEK 1.4bn (Fig 2), 29% below Bloombergconsensus (SEK 1.9bn) and down heavily on Q1 (SEK 2.6bn). Q2 will reflect the fullimpact of lower copper and zinc annual contract TCs (-SEK 0.3bn QoQ), the largestsmelter maintenance quarter (-SEK 0.4bn) of the year and headwinds fromstrengthening local currencies. Data & news flow China produced 3.6 mt of aluminiumin Jun (30 days), up 1.6% YoY and marginallydown 0.2% MoM on daily output basis. Operating capacity for Jun was 43.83 mt,with operating rate down 0.2 ppts MoM. The Jan-Jun 2025 YTD output up 2.5% YoY(2024 full year was up 4% YoY).China's power grid investmentfor May at CNY 63.2billion, up 33% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up 20% YoY. China's Solar power installedcapacity for May at 92.4 GW, up 374% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up 143% YoY. China'sWind power installed capacity for May at 26.3 GW, up 774% YoY. Jan-May YTD, up138% YoY.China’s BF capacity utilisationrate for the week ending 26 Jun stoodat 90.8%, flat WoW and up 1.7 ppts YoY. Traders’ steelinventoriesdown 1% WoW(down 29% YoY). Iron ore port inventories up 0.3% WoW (down 7% YoY).Chinaproperty salesincreased 41% WoW (in line with the seasonal trend), althoughdown 10% YoY over the past four weeks. China’s power generation index flat WoW(flat last 4 weeks YoY).China copper concentrate spot TC-US$43.6/t on 27 Jun(-US$43.7/t last week), still close to an all-time low. China base metal inventories:copper and zinc inventories decreased by 10% and 3% WoW respectively, whilealuminium inventories increased by 1% WoW. Commodity price and FX trends (Fig 11-18)Base metals were mixed over the past week with nickel (+2%) and aluminium (+1%) increasing while copper (-2%) and zinc (-1%) declined. Precious metals were alsomixed ranging from (0% to -3%). Bulks increased, with NEWC (+5%) leading themove higher followed by coking coal (+4%) and iron ore (+2%). Mining currenciesbroadly appreciat