全球金属与矿业：26年第三季度商品与股票更新——通胀下降利好黄金利空多数金属

Global Metals & Mining: 3Q26 Commodity & Equity Update -Falling inflation will be a risk to most metals but a reward to gold 1H26 has proven to be a strong start for mining stocks. Our coverage has all risen in terms ofshare price with the exception of the smelter-heavy Boliden and the gold-heavy Barrick andNewmont. Our macro approach suggests we are late cycle and equity multiples (except forgold stocks) sit elevated as well. We are thus defensive. We think disinflation (falling inflation)will start to reduce cash costs (putting pressure on price) while providing room for a new (andopaque?) Fed Chair to be more dovish. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro, CFA+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com Full details across all commodities, markets and equities follow, but we highlight some keyideas here. Copper.We have passed the deadline for the US Department of Commerce to endorse ornot refined copper tariffs. We (a minority view) would argue that a delay suggests a tradedeal is the preferred means for critical mineral security. We don’t believe today is a goodcopper entry point (but a RIO outperform helps balance if we’re wrong). ANTO and FCX(market perform) win if we are wrong. Nickel.On the short list of cheap metals. Indonesian discipline has helped set a floor withnext step a rebalance. GLEN (market perform) best exposed in our coverage. Aluminum.Strait has reopened (kind of) softening prices but the next step is slow andcostly repairs. We like the slow glide back to normal. RIO (outperform) most levered. Gold.Strait has reopened (again kind of) so the oil price inflation “slug” working its waythrough the system will subside. The Fed knows this and can wait on rate hikes? If so,bullish gold. ABX and NEM (outperforms) most levered. Iron Ore.Chinese squabbling with suppliers and a weak China macro have sent pricesbelow $100/t. We expect a very modest trimming from here. RIO, VALE and BHP mostlevered to a flattish price. Coal.A tragic accident in China has caused a major pause in supply. The thermal bull case(LNG trapped behind Strait in perpetuity) has subsided but empty gas storage and ominousweather may be positive catalyst into year end. GLEN (market perform) best exposed in ourcoverage. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS As we are in Q3 2026, we are updating our company models with our latest commodity prices and FX estimates. We have Outperform ratings on Barrick, Newmont, and Rio Tinto. ABX (Outperform) We trim our price target from CAD 91.00 to CAD 86.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rate estimates.We also adjust the EV/EBITDA multiple from 5.75x to 5.00x to reflect risk of rising capex and delayed timeline of Reko Diq project. We use 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.00x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. NEM (Outperform) We trim our price target from USD 157.00 to USD 147.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.75x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. RIO (Outperform) We raise our price target from GBP 62.00 to GBP 66.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.00x against our forward 2027EBITDA estimate. We have our Market-Perform ratings on Anglo American, Antofagasta, BHP, Boliden, Freeport McMoRan, Glencore, and Vale. AAL (Market-Perform) We trim our price target from GBP 26.50 to GBP 25.00 to reflect our latest commodity prices and exchange rates estimates. Wecontinue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.00x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. ANTO (Market-Perform) We raise our price target from GBP 28.00 to GBP 28.50 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We use an unchanged 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x against our forward 2027EBITDA estimate. BHP (Market-Perform) We raise our target price from GBP 21.00 to GBP 23.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rateestimates. We continue to use a 25/75 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x against our forward 2027EBITDA estimate. BOL (Market-Perform) We trim our price target from SEK 580 to SEK 520 to reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rate estimates. Wecontinue to use a 50/50 combination of DCF and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.50x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. FCX (Market-Perform) We trim our price target from USD 58.50 to USD 50.00 to reflect our latest commodity price deck, new cost estimates andexchange rate estimates. We continue to use EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.00x against our forward 2027 EBITDA estimate. GLEN (Market-Perform) We raise our price target from GBP 4.55 to GBP 4.85 reflect our latest commodity price deck and exchange rate estimates. Wecon