Netflix 2026年第二季度及后续关键议题分析

Laurent Yoon+1 917 344 8502laurent.yoon@bernsteinsg.com Martin Boruchowicz+1 917 344 8564martin.boruchowicz@bernsteinsg.com Andrew Chung+1 917 344 8302andrew.chung@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NFLX Q2: More than a quarter - key debates heading into theprint There’s a lot riding on Q2 as Netflix faces no shortage of near and longer-term questions—from Q2 engagement trends and potential revisions to 2026 margin guidance to the broaderchallenge of sustaining growth amid evolving consumer preferences and viewing behavior. Close Date7 Jul 2026NFLX Close Price (USD)76.18Price Target (USD)100.00Upside/(Downside)31%52-Week Range129.50/70.86SPX7,503.85FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)320,779EV (USD) (M)325,232 There are six (too many) key debates heading into the print: Q2 surprise? Much of it is well-understood.WC26 likely further exacerbated seasonallysofter Q2 engagement, creating an incremental headwind to subscriber growth duringthe quarter. The more important question is how much of the headwind is reflected in thecompany’s 2026 outlook. The high end of revenue guidance could be at risk.Net additions below high-teens millionwould likely make the upper end of Netflix’s ‘26 revenue guidance (14%) more difficult toachieve and could create modest downside risk to EPS expectations. While it is reasonable toassume subscriber growth returns to a more normal cadence in 2H26 (ex-July headwind fromWC26), it is less likely that growth can accelerate sufficiently to offset 1H headwinds. Can advertising offset subscriber growth pressure?A softer subscriber trajectory couldbe mitigated by >$3B ad revenue, providing support to both revenue and EPS. While thereis no reliable third-party data source to track Netflix’s ad revenue, broader market conditionscontinue to point to healthy CTV ad demand, which should further support Netflix’s adbusiness momentum.Summary continues on the following page… Investment Implications We maintain an Outperform rating for Netflix with a revised PT of $100 (-10). ‘26 EPSadj are due to subscriber growth pressure (-3M) from WC26, while our ‘27 adj reflects areacceleration in subscriber growth (+4M) driven by the anticipated ad-tier expansion into15 new markets. We also adjusted our valuation multiple down from 29x to 26x, to reflectchallenges discussed weighing on investor sentiment in the foreseeable future. DETAILS Summary continued… Margin revision? It may not be the base case.Netflix has raised its full-year margin outlook alongside Q2 results over thepast two years. If ad revenue is tracking ahead of expectations and content spending remains below $20B budget, a 50 bps+ margin increase appears achievable despite slower subscriber growth. Conversely, maintain the current guide could beinterpreted as confirmation that subscriber headwinds are significant enough to warrant waiting until Q3 for greater visibility—ascenario that would likely further weigh on sentiment. What if Netflix discontinues the engagement report?Investor concern is growing around the possibility that Netflix maystop publishing its semiannualWhat We Watchedengagement report, following the company’s decision to pull subscribermetrics. While the rationale may be understandable, eliminating the report would further weigh on already challenged sentimentin the near-term. Engagement has become a perennial debateand likely to remain one for years as consumer preferences and viewingbehavior continue to evolve. This does not imply that long-form storytelling is in decline, but it does suggest that traditionallong-form platforms must continue adapting to changing viewer behavior. With increasing uncertainties around both the “what”and the “how” to get there, M&A speculation is likely to persist (and Netflixshouldexplore options). Until investors gain greaterconfidence on the future state, a narrative centered on PxQ and a steady drumbeat of EPS growth may prove insufficient tosustain a premium valuation multiple. RECENT RELEVANT NOTES 7 Jul 2026 - US Media: The cost of growth - the return of rising content spend30 Jun 2026 - Comcast (CMCSA): The Optionality Spin23 Jun 2026 - Netflix: At 52-lows, we expect continued near-term volatility4 Jun 2026 - Netflix: Messy Near-Term Narrative, but a Durable Engine22 May 2026 - Weekend Media Blast: The Battle of 16:9 vs 9:1620 May 2026 - State of the Media Industry (1Q26): Industry grows with steady margins - calm before the storm?14 May 2026 - Netflix to launch AVOD-tier in 15 more countries in 2027 - more about 'Q' than $17 Apr 2026 - Netflix 1Q26: Streaming Growth, Buffering Margins?1 Apr 2026 - NFLX: Deconstruction of Netflix's content spend and implications on '26 EPS27 Mar 2026 - NFLX: Price hike secures double-digit revenue growth in '2619 Mar 2026 - NFLX: Engagement - more nuanced than the headline12 Mar 2026 - NFLX: What is the range of EPS upside for 2026?4 Mar 2026 - State of the Media Industry (4Q25): Margin pressure on deck NETFLIX’S STOCK PERFORMANCE AND STO