2026年移民展望报告：欧洲十大关键移民议题

Ten migration issues to look out for in 2026:Origins, key events and priorities for Europe Table of Content Ten Migration issues to look out for in 2026 Introduction Focus regionsAfghanistanPakistanIranSyriaGazaNorth African countries 45Migration trends in the EU 454955Detections of irregular border crossingsAsylum applicationsBeneficiaries of temporary protection 61Impact of cuts to humanitarian aid and refugee support 69The new pact and the “hard slog of implementation“ Europe‘s push for tangible results after settinga new returns framework Ambitious steps in skills partnerships andthe role of labour migration in EU geopolitics Conclusions Sources Ten migration issuesto look out for in 2026 A historic peak in global conflicts continues to sustain volatile dis-placement levels and the global conflict landscape shows little pros-pect of easing in 2026. Last year, the Global Peace Index recorded59 active state-based conflicts worldwide, the highest number sinceWorld War II. Conflicts are increasingly protracted and internation-alised, driven by geopolitical fragmentation and major-power rivalry.Overall peacefulness declined again in 2025, worsening in 87 coun-tries. Historical evidence links prolonged conflicts to sustained high Conditions in countries of origin and transit, together with the effectsof recent migration policy interventions, will be the two principalfactors driving European migration dynamics in 2026. Asylum applica- Absent major disruptions, these figures are expected to remain stableor decline further. The continued tightening of migration controls byEuropean and non-European States, including the rollout of the newEU Migration Pact, is likely to reinforce this trend. However, the risk and south of the Mediterranean are forming an increasingly intercon-nected region, marked by shared challenges and opportunities. In thiscontext, both sides will need to address the root causes of displace- The new pact and the hard slog of implementation5 While significant progress has been achieved, equally substantialefforts will be required to transform the new pact from a politicalcommitment into a fully operational instrument. This places consider-able demands on Member States and will absorb much of their capac-ity throughout 2026. Sustained momentum and coordinated effortsare essential to ensure full implementation by June. Nevertheless, Cuts to global humanitarian aid and refugee assistance – amountingto up to 40% – are intensifying pressures on displaced persons andother vulnerable groups in origin and host countries. Paired withtighter mobility restrictions and sharply reduced resettlement quo-tas, these trends will limit access to protection, aid and livelihoods in Deepened EU–North Africa relations amid migration The push for tangible results after setting In 2026, the role of North African States will continue to evolve –shifting from serving primarily as transit countries to becoming bothdestinations and transit hubs for mixed migration flows. Thus, theyare likely to be increasingly affected by conflict-induced migration One of the principal objectives of the new Asylum and Migration Pactis to substantially increase the return of individuals residing illegallywithin the territory of the European Union. To this end, the EU has also reveal how prepared Member States are to view labour migrationas part of the EU’s geopolitical strategy – and whether it can become countries and the removal of the connection criterion, were agreedlast year. These decisions are intended to lay the groundwork formore effective return outcomes. In 2026, the political agreements will The rise of a skills-based approach Building on the recent expansion of cooperation on labour migration,the EU and its partner countries made targeted efforts in 2025 tostrengthen skills development in countries of origin. These measuresaim to facilitate the more effective admission of foreign workersinto skilled occupations. Evidence from existing initiatives indicates A sustained “realpolitik turn” in migration policy In 2025, for the first time in many years, European governments re-sumed returns of irregular migrants to Syria and Afghanistan underagreements with the respective authorities. These returns involvedrelatively small numbers and specific groups, primarily convictedoffenders, but they still reflected a broader “realpolitik turn” in whichmigration policy objectives take precedence over concerns related to Two scenarios after the US strike in Venezuela10 Over the past decade, Latin American nationals have become an in-creasingly significant group among asylum seekers in Europe. The USmilitary strike against Venezuela and the removal of President Maduroon 3 January 2026 are set to reshape the regional context and opentwo likely scenarios for migration dynamics. In the first scenario, apattern similar to post-Assad Syria could emerge, with parts of the Labour migration in EU geopolitics The Global