2026年欧洲并购展望——领导者的十大交易主题

Top ten deal themes for 2026 Capital Currents is across-industry seriesfocused on distillingthe key trends in M&A Despite the turmoil and economic uncertainty, dealmaking returned in force in2025, and we expect the momentum to continue into 2026. Global M&A was up more than 30% last year, while Europe also saw strong growth, up 12%in deal value to about $820 billion, as investors rotated asset allocation to Europe. The last12 months heralded a new-found conviction that Europe must go faster to consolidate and While volatility seems likely to remain elevated in 2026, with geopolitics, rates and tariffsremaining uncertain, what is certain is that the case for consolidation for many European Corporate profitability continues to be robust across sectors, up 50% from pre-2008 levels, yetEuropean companies remain sub-scale and European industries more fragmented than the US.The case for acquiring critical capabilities remains and with elevated valuations — the Eurostoxx The strong pipeline of announced but not yet completed deals, combined with global capitalavailability and easing regulatory dynamics, suggests sustained M&A activity in 2026. This edition of Capital Currents distills the top 10 themes expected to shape European M&A in2026. It outlines our conviction and the views of industry experts we interviewed, the conditions Total completed transaction value in $ billion and % of GDP, European target and/or acquirer Top 10 themes Total completed transaction value in $ billion, European target and/or acquirer 1. Banking consolidation acceleratesas capital and returns align European banking M&A has closed out the largest M&A year in over a decade, with dealvolumes doubling since 2020. Deals have been fueled by restored profitability, an imperativefor diversification, and increasing regulatory support for consolidation. Banks also increasinglyhave acquisition currency; they are expected to generate over $500 billion excess capital above We expect this trend to accelerate in 2026, as banks seek to acquire fee-income generatingcapabilities — such as wealth management — as the rate cycle turns, and to capitalize onin-market consolidation. 2025 saw the emergence of the first wave of cross-border bankingM&A — with notable transactions like Erste Bank buying Santander Poland, Santander buying Successful transactions will be those with clear strategic merit — adding scale or capabilitythat accelerates strategy — and that deliver superior returns to alternative uses of capital Banks also increasingly have acquisition currency; theyare expected to generate over $500 billion excess capitalabove regulatory minima over the next three years, and are 2. Asset managers race for relevance as marginsshrink and scale matters The asset and wealth management sector faces a consolidation imperative amid profit marginpressure and client consolidation. In 2025, several major European transactions underscoredthis trend, including Generali’s planned joint venture with Natixis and BNP’s acquisition of AXAInvestment Managers. By 2030, we predict, there will be 20% fewer asset managersas M&A activity is intensifying, with 100 to 200 transactions expected every year in Europe alone, •Capabilities, particularly in private markets•Capital, in the form of patient insurance balance sheets•Clients, by securing proprietary distribution As insurers and wealth managers reassess their ownership of asset managers, inter-sectoropportunities emerge with carve-outs, alliances and investments in proprietary distribution. M&A activity is intensifying, with 100 to 200 transactions Find out more: Thinning the Herd: The Race for Relevance Fueling M&A in Asset and 3. Telcos M&A shifts from land-grabto economic repair Europe’s telecom markets are mature, with low growth in core mobile and fixed connectivity,limiting the impact of traditional “land grab” strategies and raising the bar for value-accretivedeals. In this environment, M&A becomes essential. High investment needs for nationwide5G and fiber are colliding with a fragmented industry structure that makes scale harder to Against this backdrop, several deal archetypes shape activity: •The largest and most immediate value pools lie in in-market consolidation.•In parallel, growth-engine acquisitions near the core, especially in B2B digital overlayservices, are revenue-led, driven by cross sell and new segment penetration.•Telco data center joint ventures and partnerships with tech players are increasing Other types of transactions we expect to see more of include digital infrastructure carve-outs High investment needs for nationwide 5G and fiber arecolliding with a fragmented industry structure that makes 4. Defense M&A pivots to capacity, controland sovereignty European defense enters 2026 with a structurally supportive demand backdrop. Militaryspending is set to grow at roughly 9% a year through 2030. This is lifting budgets to more than For primes and their suppliers, this