探讨中国餐饮业关键议题及全球投资者影响

Addressing key debates related to the China restaurants landscape andimplications for global investors China has emerged as a linchpin of global fast food expansion, representing not onlya significant market but a major unit growth engine for industry leaders like MCD,YUM, DPZ and SBUX. With 1.4 billion consumers and an expanding middle class,China’s QSR sector has become afierce battleground with both global/local brandspushing aggressively to expand their presence in an important market that offersattractive unit economics and substantial white space in lower-tier cities. Weforecast China to represent more than 75% of net openings at YUM, and expect themarket to represent c.40-50% of openings at MCD/SBUX/DPZ in 2025 (Exhibit 2).YUMC operates ~15k KFC and Pizza Hut stores (~25% of YUM’s global store count) asof FY24, yet management believes there are meaningful opportunities to penetratefurther and deeper into the market; with the company’s 2026 target of 20k storesimplying a goal to reach half of the Chinese population. Michelle Cheng+852-2978-6631|michelle.cheng@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Christine Cho+1(212)357-4594|christine.cho@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Xinyu Ruan+852-2978-7347|xinyu.ruan@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Teddy Farley, CFA+1(212)357-7348|teddy.farley@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Carol Chen+852-2978-7999|carol.chen@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Molly Dai+852-3966-4000|molly.dai@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. In this report, we look into several key themes/debates in the China restaurantindustry that are relevant for global investors: 1) recent SSSG, unit growth andmarket share trends, 2) store unit economics, payback and diversifying formats (i.e.increasing sub-franchised stores for YUMC), 3) coffee/RTD tea competitivelandscape with large local players like Luckin and Mixue continuing to expandpresence, and 4) impact of elevated food delivery subsidies on transaction growth in2H25/2026. Samantha Chiang+1(212)357-7992|samantha.chiang@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Bottom line:On the positive side,we are seeing still healthy store unit economicsespecially with penetration into lower-tier cities and adoption of various formats,which sets up a favorable backdrop for unit growth. However, we continue to see arelatively muted SSSG backdrop given soft consumer sentiment, lingeringde-consolidation riskand emerging risk to pricing due to consumers’ more selectivespending behavior. We also need to keep a close eye on the level of food deliverysubsidies, whether it will persist through 2026 and how it impacts the priceperception.For the exclusive use of XSLI@HHLRADVISORS.COM Exhibit 2: ...but we forecast China to represent ~52% ofnet unit openings on average in FY25 (43% excludingYUM)Expected unit openings (GSe) China exposure as of FY24 (%) Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research How have catering sales been growing in China?n Total catering sales in China grew by 4% YoY in Jan-Aug based on NBS data,and the growth saw deceleration amid a tougher consumption backdrop tonegative YoY in Jun-Jul; while the growth turned to positive in Aug, it remainedmuted. Meanwhile, above sized restaurant sales growth continued tounderperform, indicating lingeringde-consolidation risk. How have SSSG and unit growth trended across China restaurant chains?n Brands have generally seen improved SSSG performance YTD with an easierobase and boost from food delivery subsidy since 2Q; we continue to see widedivergence across brands subject to brand momentum and base effect.Pricing-wise, late last year/early this year, we saw some players moredisciplined in pricing and promotion. For example, within the coffee category,Luckin hiked prices in Jan in some cities, KCoffee hiked the price for itsmembership card and increased the lowest product price from Rmb5 to Rmb6. Meanwhile, KFC announced a price hike of ~2% on average in Dec2024; restaurant companies Jiumaojiu and Haidilao have also been rationalwith promotions. That being said, we note pricing risk emerging again over thepast few months, with food delivery subsidy lowering purchase pricesespecially for FMD; we also note multiple freshly made drink (FMD) brands areeducating customers on new categories (e.g. Guming/MIXUE in Coffee,Luckin/Cotti in tea), and offering SKUs with highly affordable prices.On unitgrowth, YUMC maintains a solid expansion pace with net opening in 2Hexpected to accelerate vs. 1H (based on both guidance and GSe); and multipleFMD brands delivered or accelerated plans for store expansion. Exhibit 5: Freshly made drink names generally benefitedfrom food delivery subsidySSSG vs. Store expansion; Brand name (yoy store count growth in 9M25) Guming/Tai Er store count is based on average of 1H25 and 2025E. ChaPandaand Auntea Jenny’s SSSG is based on goods sales per store yoy. Haidilao/Nayukistore count is based on Aug 2025. Source: NBS Source: Company data, Geohey, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research So