爱马仕——2026年第二季度前的关键主题

Luca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFA+852 2123 2628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comYi-Peng Khoo, CFA+44 20 7676 6822yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+44 20 7170 0540maria.meita@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Alix Turner+44 20 7762 4044alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com We regularly hold calls with companies, making sure we are up-to-date with their latest public communications. We provide an update of the Key messages:Overall trend for 2Q26 remains broadly in line with 1Q26, across the regions. Korea is the only exception, where Hermes isperforming very well, as the whole market seems to have enjoyed a boost from the buoyant stock market. They pointed out that weaknessin RTW in 1Q26, is partly driven by the shoe businesses - it’s now a sizable business with significant exposure to the Middle East (e.g., Oransandals) - and likely not enough inventory given strong sell-through of Womenswear novelty. For Leather Goods, the growth frameworkremains unchanged, with around 5-6% pricing and 6% volume growth expected for the year, with volumes progressively improving throughthe year. China:Hermès reiterated tougher comparables following multiple years of strong growth, noting that 1Q26 performance was in line withinternal expectations; the brand continues to benefit from resilient high-end customers while sustaining investment through initiatives suchas “Hermès in the Making” in Shanghai and the new Sanlitun store in Beijing, with traffic stabilising but no clear inflection versus 1Q26. US:Hermès reminded us that the mechanical benefit from mid-single digit price increases implemented in May-25 to offset tariffs has nowlapsed after May-26, although underlying demand remains very dynamic. Middle East:Local spending has normalized, but tourist demand, a key component of the region, has yet to recover; management notedthat 1Q26 included two months of normal trading while March was challenging, and although 2Q26 traffic remains below January andFebruary levels, each month has improved sequentially from March. Competition:Hermès emphasised its long-standing focus on innovation across collections and designs, suggesting that recent newnessfrom peers is more competitive within the fashion segment than directly against Hermès, which is less trend driven; notably, sell-through for1Q26 Women’s RTW novelty was very strong, and the group highlighted a robust upcoming pipeline including the 9th Jewellery collection inJuly 2026 with a faster cadence likely from 2028, Wales Bonner’s menswear debut in 2027, the launch of Haute Couture in 2027, skincarein 2028, and increased complexity in watches. Communication spending:Hermes commented that they take a different approach in communication spending from peers, with 2/3dedicated to customer events (VIC events, special launches, selective dinner/ parties, or special events such as “Hermes in the Making”).Only 1/3 is dedicated to pure advertising. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Hermes International We value Hermès on a target 3.2x relative P/E multiple to the MSCI Europe, applied to a blended NTM+1 forward EPS forecast,arriving at a target price of EUR2,150. RISKS Hermes International On the downside: 1. Failure to convincingly innovate could push Hermès in a “classic corner”, a possible risk if the aesthetics pendulum swings away 2. Significant reliance on precious skins could at one point come again in focus, as consumers become more interested in animalwelfare – a move away from crocodile with higher volumes in less expensive raw materials could puncture the rarity effect of most iconicproducts. 3. Legal challenges to Hermes commercial policies seem a long shot (see the case in California) – if successful, though, they couldforce Hermes to increase handbag prices. This could translate to lower growth for other product categories, benefiting today fromiconic products pull. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQ