爱马仕2026年第二季度谨慎前景确认

Yi-Peng Khoo, CFA+4420 7676 6822 yi-peng.khoo@bernsteinsg.comEric Chen, CFAA+85221232628eric.chen@bernsteinsg.comMaria Meita+442071700540 maria.meita@bernsteinsg.comSpecialistSales Alix Turner+4420 77624044 alix.turner@bernsteinsg.com intheleaduptotheir2Q26/1H26reporting,andprovideanupdateofthekeythemesonthecompanybelow.Hermes concedesthat afew elements have marginally improved in2Q26 relative to1Q26-namelytourist spend in Europeand the local spend in the Middle East-butthebroaderpictureforthem remains contrasted, with only a slightsequential acceleration seen as areasonable expectation for 2Q26E.More should supporttrading in2H26E:more high-endtouristspendand more retail space growth.CommentarybyDivision:ReiteratedFYLeatherGoodsgrowthalgorithmof+5-6%priceand+6%volume,albeit onanon-linearbasis leadingtoaprogressiveaccelerationoverthe yearvs.1Q26at+9.4%.RTWandSilks &Textiles remain strong.Other sectorsface a~9%sequentiallytoughercomparisonbase.Perfumeslikelycontinuetobeweigheddownbydistributorcaution,whileWatchesremaintough,potentiallyreflectingweakdemandinChina.Wholesaleperformancecontinuestoreflectweakness infragrancesandconcessions/distributors. trends in France improving slightly -potentially driving a sequential acceleration.Further acceleration would likely depend on a return ofMiddle East continues to improve with stores reopened and operating normally.Tourists have yetto return to the Middle East, however, whilelocal spending has only partially mitigated the shortfall,potentially leading to a -2-3% drag on the quarter. Trends in China remain toughwithaspirational consumersremaining weak,makinga meaningful acceleration unlikely.This will likelyhavean impacton more aspirationalskewed categories (e.g.belts,costume jewellery,fashion accessories,etc.) CommentaryonSpace:Reiterated1%contributionfromspaceforFY26,witha stronger impact in2H26.Therewas likelynomajorincremental impactfromspacebetween2Q26and1Q26.BeijingSanlitunrepresentsthemostsignificantopening in2Q26,but itscontribution has likely been offset by soft underlying market trends in China. New Bond Street will have a greater contribution in 2H26, as ittime. FX &Margins: On current FX rates,FX headwinds will likely cometo -3% to-3.5% in 2Q26,-5% in 1H26, and between-2.5% and-3% forFY26.Hermes has guided to a -220m headwind on margins for FY26, with a greater drag in 2H26 than 1H26.Price hikes at the start of theyear were designed to offset cost inflation and notFX headwinds, mechanically leading to a slight under absorption of costs. Taxes:The 1H26 effectivetax rate should be similar to that of 1H25,at~35.4%. (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale. otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures,references to Bernstein's“affiliates"relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY We value Hermes on atarget 3.2xrelativeP/Emultiple to the MSCI Europe,appliedto a blended NTM+1forward EPS forecast,arriving atatargetprice of EUR2,150. RISKS Hermes International On the downside: 1.Failure to convincingly innovate could push Hermes in a“classic corner",a possible riskif the aesthetics pendulum swings awayfrom“quiet luxury" 2.Significant reliance onprecious skins could at onepointcomeagain in focus,as consumers becomemore interested in animalwelfare-a move away from crocodile with higher volumes in less expensive raw materials could puncture the rarity effect of most iconicproducts. forceHermestoincreasehandbagprices.Thiscouldtranslatetolowergrowthforotherproductcategories,benefitingtodayfromiconicproductspull. RATINGS DEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernsteinbrand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performancefor the next 12 months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL)for stocks listed on the Japanese(ex-Japan)exchanges-unless otherwise specified. The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings: :Outperform:Stock will outpacethemarket indexbymorethan 15pp on events and developments. Autonomousbrand-commonstocks TheAutonomous brandrates commonstocks as indicated below.Asourbenchmarksweusethe Bloomberg Europe5oo BanksAnd Financial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Lar